Harry Perry

GRR discounting the system totally this morning. (A general 1-2” is possible). This should be fun to watch.

At 5-6” and counting here. 14°. Roads are a mess. Welcome to winter.

Well that escalated quickly. Heaviest I’ve seen in a couple years. Dropped a quick half of an inch.

Less than 1 minute later... Temp dropped from 33° to 30° in the same amount of time. Impressive.

Heavy returns overhead... current view

Agreed, it’s been a while. Looks like we’ll get 4-6 hours of decent rates tomorrow. Hard to say how much will accumulate at first, but should really start to get going right before it quits Thursday evening.

Biggest snow of the season. Snow ended around 7 this morning. Total 2-3”, hard to measure with the drifting.

Well well, after 6 to 7 hours of returns overhead our first flakes have finally began falling.

It is hitting the “block” wall as you can see on radar.

This. This is the one.

1-9”... what could go wrong?

Hard call over here. Plumes from 1.5” to 8” with a mean around 4” but absolutely NO clustering at all. Considering the rapid transfer of energy to the east coast, would expect rapid shunting of heaviest precip to push through to the east southeast while weakening on the northern end due to our fun northern friend “BLOCK”. Without the blocking to our north, this would probably trend much further north and it still could a bit, but likely not enough to make more than a notable difference. Going with 2.5” here. RogueWaves, what’re you thinkin?

Baby steps. Last system really shunted the axis of snow well north of guidance.

Yeah that would be our luck. Wonder if the wave ejects further south. Currently riding the trough out west. Sampling/tomorrow’s runs should help with this but I’m willing to be we actually get our first legitimate “storm” (2-4”) out of this.

Baby steps...

Has GHD2 always been 4th on the CIPS list or is it creeping higher and higher?

18z looks to be a solid hit around southern MI and a general spread the wealth for many. Wonder if the models will play catch up like the last storm.. i.e. dry air aloft.

Our biggest forecasted storm of the season dropped the least amount of snow. 3/4” - models, who needs them?

Flurries have begun in Battle Creek. Right on cue.

The bleeding just won’t stop.

I’m ready for the “general 2-4” snowfall”. WWA per GRR, spot on. I believe they are accounting for continued bleeding as well.

I have a feeling that tomorrow will NOT be our day haha. Watch these models come apart and drop accums to 1” or less East of Chicago. Not saying it’ll happen, but we’re definitely on course and would be up to par as of lately.

High bust potential for both of us. Rather be surprised than get my hopes up at this point.

Agreed. What was melting off my truck earlier is now frozen. Such a tricky call on this system. Back down to 31° here.

That makes two of us.