I like this post here. The models can show varying degrees of where to place the vort out west in the Southwestern United States but how the models resolve how that comes out of the southwest really determines what goes on along the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Case in point does the energy/ vorts all come out of the southwest all at once or does it come out of the southwest in pieces along with what kind of blocking is up top and cold air available too. All of these factors we live and die every year.
So, instead of saying "We just can't know yet". I will go with I think we find out from modeling perspectives what way we are going here some time starting this afternoon to Tuesday 0z model runs.
Also, I am in the camp that the SER is a transient feature.
Good Luck to the Ravens fans here today!