I don't necessarily agree. If there had been colder air, why would we have been toast? There have been numerous times where the primary low tracks to the lakes but there is enough cold air (often due to CAD) that the secondary low offshore produces a lot of snow in our area. By the way, thanks for responding. I wish we had more discussion (including Mets) in our subforum. Ralph seems to be the only one attempting to do any forecast analysis. Thanks Ralph!