GaWx

0Z Euro: similar track to 12Z but stronger with it coming back into CHS at 986 mb vs 989 on 12Z; biblical rainfall amts of 20-24” mainly over ~72 hr period SAV-CHS and inland to 50 miles Lowcountry

0Z UK: landfall just E of 12Z’s Apalachicola; then goes inland further W into C GA then turns E to CHS, goes up SC coast and then well inland into NC; flooding threat many areas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 23.5N 83.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.08.2024 24 23.5N 83.7W 1007 28 1200UTC 04.08.2024 36 25.7N 84.8W 1006 34 0000UTC 05.08.2024 48 27.4N 85.5W 1004 43 1200UTC 05.08.2024 60 28.8N 85.3W 1003 42 0000UTC 06.08.2024 72 29.9N 84.4W 1002 35 1200UTC 06.08.2024 84 31.4N 84.2W 1001 36 0000UTC 07.08.2024 96 32.5N 83.3W 997 37 1200UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.5N 81.1W 996 41 0000UTC 08.08.2024 120 32.8N 79.9W 994 43 1200UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.8N 79.5W 996 41 0000UTC 09.08.2024 144 35.3N 78.4W 998 39 1200UTC 09.08.2024 156 36.4N 78.5W 1001 38 0000UTC 10.08.2024 168 37.4N 76.6W 1002 36

Ok. Yes, you’re correct. 1007 mb into Big Bend. Strongest yet into Big Bend.

No, I see 989 at CHS. I don’t know what you’re looking at.

I agree that the very heavy rain threat is as of now the biggest danger from this. But even if you have just TS winds, the tree uprooting would be very bad.

It took awhile but it’s just started raining here with CTG lightning pretty closeby. But it didn’t last long. Thus I ended up with only 0.25”.

12Z Euro says not just a H hit at CHS but also a rainfall flooding disaster quite possible SAV to Georgetown, SC, with 10”+ amounts and inland a bit especially SC Lowcountry. Keep in mind that that area has had well above normal rainfall the last 2 weeks. Hopefully this run is way off.

12Z Euro, which is strongest yet into the FL Big Bend, goes offshore at Brunswick and then becomes the strongest in many runs offshore the SE US with a 988 mb H. Then it turns back W and hits CHS, SC, on THU as a 989 mb H before going well inland and weakening.

The 12Z Euro is a bit stronger (strongest of all runs into NW FL) and still has a FL Big Bend landfall.

It may not be fully relevant, but fwiw the CMC was too far left for the longest before finally changing from a MX final landfall for Beryl.

Thunderstorms already popping up all around this area. This is much earlier than most days of recent weeks. Been hearing thunder the last 10 minutes or so. Will it rain? So far it has been hit and miss pop ups and so that remains to be seen. The NWS has only 20% chances. Also, the dewpoints/HI are very high with upper 70s/108! Temps are in the low 90s. All conducive to the pop-ups.

12Z UKMET: first landfall Apalachicola; then would be potential disaster rainfall potential-wise, especially for SC/NC coasts due to a crawl up the coast CHS N and then back inland into coastal NC: this is to the left of the 0Z run, which was offshoreNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.8N 84.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 04.08.2024 48 25.5N 84.6W 1006 350000UTC 05.08.2024 60 27.4N 85.0W 1005 411200UTC 05.08.2024 72 29.2N 84.8W 1005 420000UTC 06.08.2024 84 30.3N 83.6W 1005 301200UTC 06.08.2024 96 31.7N 82.0W 1003 430000UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.4N 80.9W 999 371200UTC 07.08.2024 120 32.6N 80.0W 995 350000UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.1N 79.0W 993 411200UTC 08.08.2024 144 33.9N 78.4W 993 440000UTC 09.08.2024 156 34.1N 78.3W 994 451200UTC 09.08.2024 168 35.1N 78.3W 996 38

I had just over 12” in July, which is ~200% of normal with 9” of that just during just the last 2 weeks. All of GA/SC/NC was dominated by well above normal rainfall in July mainly from PM thunderstorms. Torrential rainfall from this next week, should it materialize, could be a more serious problem for the SE just due to how wet it has been.

then turns back W w/CHS landfall 228. Torrential rainfall upper GA/SC coasts.

Please post August 2024 obs here. Thanks.

12Z UKMET: slow mover (huge rainfall potential) that moves NNE with a landfall FL panhandle; turns E through N FL and then deepens offshore NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.9N 85.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.08.2024 96 28.9N 86.2W 1010 33 0000UTC 06.08.2024 108 29.2N 85.5W 1009 29 1200UTC 06.08.2024 120 31.2N 85.1W 1009 29 0000UTC 07.08.2024 132 30.1N 83.8W 1006 26 1200UTC 07.08.2024 144 30.8N 82.5W 1003 34 0000UTC 08.08.2024 156 31.0N 80.4W 997 46 1200UTC 08.08.2024 168 30.8N 79.5W 994 43

Yesterday’s thunderstorm could easily have qualified as severe imho due to high winds near the start. I can’t recall the last time I had a puddle just inside the foyer due to the wind blowing so hard (evidently right toward the door) allowing it to sneak underneath a despite it being a pretty tight space. Also, whereas I didn’t lose power, I saw a good number of traffic lights that were still out a couple of hours after the storm not too far from me. Yesterday’s rainfall at my place ended up at ~1”. That gave me a grand total of ~12.25” for July. What a stormy and wet month! This was the wettest month here since the similar 13.25" during August of 2022 (not that long ago). Just since July 19th, I got ~9.25”! The last time it was this wet here during that short a period was the 10” I got Sept. 1-10, 2022. June through Sept. 10 of 2022 was incredibly wet here, pushing the water table all of the way up, which lead to AC condensation drainage line backup. Inside the house I had a hottest of ~88 for the month and probably for all-time due to no AC for a couple of days.

0Z EPS: another further W shift with almost all in Gulf; most of these landfall NE Gulf but some go to NW Gulf

0Z Euro: stays in Gulf through end of run as a weak system; extreme rainfall just off W coast of FL 0Z UKMET: TC into Mississippi that then turns E

I’m in favor of you starting it since Normandy prefers not to. But I’m just one person. Regardless, I’m confident nobody would object.

You wouldn’t have to worry. The titles usually end up getting changed by others with the power to do so, especially when they get stronger.

I’m in favor of you starting a new thread. This system has been dominating this general ATL tropics thread for several days. The 18Z EPS mean track shifted west a lot from the 12Z with the vast majority of tracks in the E half of the GOM with most pretty weak.

From potential very slow movement I’d be more worried about extreme flooding from very heavy rainfall than dramatic intensification.

Due to much faster movement than recent storms, the strong effects from this one lasted only ~15 minutes. However, the wind from this at the start was probably the strongest yet of the many July thunderstorms here. The rain was torrential and the combo of that with wind strength/direction actually blew in some water under the door into the foyer, highly unusual. The short duration prevented major street flooding. I’ll check my rainfall later. Edit: It appears that despite the short duration that I got 1”+.

Here we go again!GAZ116>119-SCZ047-048-051-312115- COASTAL CHATHAM-INLAND CHATHAM-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND JASPER-COASTAL JASPER-BEAUFORT- 434 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2024 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BRYAN, CHATHAM, BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES... AT 434 PM EDT, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GODLEY STATION TO FORT MCALLISTER, AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT, UNSECURED OBJECTS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... POOLER, BLUFFTON, RICHMOND HILL, TYBEE ISLAND, WILMINGTON ISLAND, FORT PULASKI NATIONAL MONUMENT, BELLINGER HILL AREA, AND MIDTOWN SAVANNAH.