GaWx

Radar estimated rainfall St. Pete 9”+ and still coming down very heavily. Flooding must be terrible.

BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 82.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

Is this the 2nd tornado in St Lucie county today?

18Z Icon: landfall 8PM TB ~2 hrs earlier than 12Z run had

Looking like may be as early as a 7-8PM landfall! Opinions?

3PM NHC update: 948 mb, up from 944 mb at 2PM update. Not unexpected.

To put this 944 mb into better perspective for the area, the 1921 cat 3 Tarpon Springs storm had a landfall there at 952 mb.

CMC (12Z) is no longer a S outlier as it is near Bradenton just like the GFS and near the UKMET, and only very slightly S of the Euro/Icon at TB.

The analysis I did looking at -NAOs and sunspots was for winter, only, and for the last 35 winters, only. All 6 winters of the last 35 with a sub -0.25 NAO (1984-5, 86-7, 95-6, 2009-10, 10-11, 20-1) had a winter SSN under 35 and was within ~2 years of a solar minimum. -NAOs during the last winters have been much less frequent than they were during the prior 25. OTOH, -NAOs have become much more frequent during summer over the last 17 or so. Im not saying there isn’t one, but I’m not aware of any proven connection of solar and NAO outside of winter. NAO tendencies have been very seasonal as per the above.

It seems to be pretty close to the others for the landfall anyway. 12Z landfalls of main globals Euro 11PM Tampa Bay ICON 10PM Tampa Bay CMC ~12:30AM ~Bradenton GFS 11PM Bradenton UKMET ~10PM ~Bradenton

12Z Euro: coming in much earlier than the 5AM of the 6Z; this run is in line with the other models and landfalls near Tampa Bay around 11PM

12Z ICON still right at TB but with 10PM EDT landfall, which is 2 hours earlier than 6Z run’s midnight

One variable will be the timing of landfall with respect to the tide. Here are the predicted astronomical tides at TB: Low at 2:19PM High at ~6:50AM at ~2.8 ft Looks like it is projected to landfall only ~2 hours before high tide per the slower Euro but more like 5-6 hours before per several other models. That could make a 1 foot or so difference as far as highest water level (combo of surge and tide level) with Euro being ~1 foot higher for the highest water level just due to being closer to high tide.

Wouldn’t the highest surge for Tampa Bay be if the eye were to come in just to the north like it did in 1921 rather than right at TB?

That much of an increase in the lowest SLP would be nice to see. However, I saw this elsewhere: “Recon passed about 8 - 10 miles south of the eye, lowest pressure was 941.6 mb extrapolated with 107 kt winds.”

Check the latest TWO out…they raised the chance from 30% to 50%: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Hurricane Milton, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico. 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical low pressure system located northeast of the northwestern Bahamas continue to become better organized. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could form today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to increase later tonight, which should limit any chances for further development. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

0Z UKMET: Bradenton (similar to 12Z)

Fortunately for memory purposes we have the very recent Helene clearly reminding us that a 938 mb H is easily low enough to be an extremely destructive monster. Really could even include through 950s easily. A 902 is just too strong to even comprehend.

If these folks will even have heat available. I’m thinking about those affected by Helene, especially in W NC. I’m sure they would rather not have the cold anytime soon.

Milton has produced 12.8 ACE over the last 48 hours!

Since 1851, that area between Pt Charlotte and Tampa has had plenty of hurricane activity from storms moving N just offshore causing significant storm surge (1935, Easy (1950), Alma (1966)), coming nearby from overland with gusts up to 120 (Donna, 1926), or landfalling below cat 3 (1944 hit right at Sarasota but as high end 2 (105). Then there’s 1921 that was a MH (120) that passed by just to the N at Tarpon Springs and gave Sarasota 105. But there’s technically no MH landfall I could find right there since at least 1851.

18Z Icon and GFS: St. Petersburg (a couple of miles N of 12Z runs)

The 12Z Euro ticked slightly S of the last few runs with a Bradenton to just S of Tampa track. The 0Z went right over Tampa. Every tick S helps Tampa Bay for surge and maybe winds somewhat but rainfall may be worse.

The LLC E of FL looks pretty robust today but I wonder if the NHC will downplay it as they’ve tended to do this season for weaker systems. They have only a 20% chance for TCG per the latest TWO. Opinions? @WxWatcher007@purduewx80

The 12Z UKMET gives Tampa 12.1” of rain!