GaWx

Yes, QBO rose from Sep’s +8.61 to Oct’s +10.36 (at 30 mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data My latest guess is for the peak month to be Dec with the most likely range for peak month being Nov-Jan.

The good news is that the Euro has a much stronger warm signal than dry signal in the NE US. At most some of the NE is barely in the lightest BN shade. So, there’s almost no signal to no signal on precip. there. There is a more notable dry signal in the SE US, especially deeper SE, which is consistent with La Niña climo.

Are you aware of a warmer E US outlook for winter from the Euro as of Nov 1st for past winters?

The newest WB Euro seasonal for winter is a bit warmer than the run from Oct for the Mid Atlantic, NE, and especially the Midwest (Dec and Feb are warmer than the prior run had while Jan is not as warm): Here was last month’s run:

I’m not necessarily buying into it. I just thought it was semi-noteworthy enough to post due to the change. It’s just one run (they often jump around) and it weakens it only to near normal at that not til the low accuracy end of the period. Even if it were to verify, it could go right back to strong obviously as ups and downs are common. In the meantime even it still suggests a mainly strong SPV for Nov 20 through Dec 15th. I’ll see what future runs show as I look for model trends like I usually do.

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean, while warm dominated til the end once again, have a change late (not on prior runs) toward a weakening SPV that approaches the climo avg fwiw:

10AM EST FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.2N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 16.5N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.2N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 19.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 21.7N 82.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.6N 85.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 26.1N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 27.4N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

As of 10AM EST, this was upgraded to TD#18: 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas. Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system over the south-central Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center and is producing organized deep convection. Therefore, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The maximum flight-level winds from the aircraft support holding the initial wind speed steady at 30 kt. Deep convection is gradually organizing near the center and in bands around it, especially on the south and east sides of the circulation. The depression has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track, and the initial motion estimate is now 010/8 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is of low confidence. The environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs support intensification, and since the system now has a well organized circulation, there is increasing confidence of steady strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, fairly close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

1. Thus, the difference between ONI and RONI has steadied out in the low to mid 0.50s after having peaked in the 0.60s earlier in the year. This makes me think it might not drop below 0.50 anytime soon. 2. Most SST anomaly measures have risen over the last week or so fwiw. Is it possible the low has already been reached? Opinions?

The following Jan-Mar after the very strong -PDO of 1894 was actually quite cold in most of the US. The PDO rose sharply to the -0.86 to -0.64 range during JFM. This included what is still the coldest Feb on record for the SE US and other locations.

New one on TWO that most models at least hint at: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 Southwestern Atlantic: An area of disturbed weather is expected to develop near the northern Leeward Islands around the middle of the week. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time as it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

I really wish a “wow” reaction would be added! This means not only a record -PDO month back 170 years, but also a new record for 2 months of -3.67 breaking old record of July-Aug 1950’s -3.31. Also, there are additional multi-month records like for Jan-Oct of 2024’s -2.59, which beats the -2.55 of Jan-Oct of 1894.

Based on preliminary stats, October of 2024 had the 5th highest ACE on record for any Oct back to 1851: 1. 1878: 87.8 2. 1894: 76.1 3. 2016: 71.3 4. 1893: 67.5 5. 2024: 66.8 (preliminary) 6. 1963: 63.1

Turn back your clocks! Here’s the 1AM EST TWO: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the Azores Islands. 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Near the Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible during the day or two while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. By early this week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97). Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Based on the WBC daily PDOs for Oct vs Sep being very slightly more negative, I’m guessing Oct NOAA PDO will not quite reach the record low of -3.65 and will be -3.60 (vs Sep’s -3.54). This will be only the 2nd time on record that there were back to back sub -3 months! The other time was way back in 1894, when there actually were three in a row. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

This became Invest 97L yesterday. Most models have it becoming a TC but interestingly the 0Z UKMET dropped it for TCG. I think it will be wrong. It still has a surface low, regardless.

The storm nearing the Azores is now Invest 96L. This could become Patty soon.

After the 11” I got from Debby along with the very wet summer overall, I’ve been fine with the dry since and loved the lower RH of that cool period in Oct. But I agree that’s it’s now dry enough.

The new TT CANSIPS is the mildest run yet and suggests a mild winter for the E/SE/SC US though Michigan is NN to BN. Regardless, there will very likely be at least a couple of BN periods interspersed as is the case just about every winter due to typical ups and downs but when, how intense, and for how long?

The new TT CANSIPS precip map for DJF is mainly BN for the E seaboard and especially for the SE US (pretty similar to prior runs)(New England is only slightly BN to NN)(Mich/Midwest is NN).

New CANSIPS for DJF is similarly dry to recent runs and is drier in terms of both anomalies and especially absolutes the more SE one is like myself and @pcbjr

NHC is playing catch up with this one approaching the Azores: North Atlantic: A low pressure system located a few hundred miles west of the Azores has been producing increased convection near its center over the past few hours. Earlier satellite derived wind data depicted winds to storm-force mainly to the south of the the center. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional development and the system could become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves generally eastward during the next few days. Interest in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. Additional information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

La Niña climo once the tropics get quiet is not kind to especially the SE half of the SE US for rainfall with SE ridge typically pretty dominant and the lack of a strong ST jet. A general BN rainfall pattern is forecasted by the model consensus through December.

Yeah it doesn’t develop it much, but the UKMET normally downplays strength significantly before a TC forms.

The population weighted US will continue to cool in the absolute sense as it almost has to, but it is forecasted to continue running about half a month behind climo averages, which is quite an anomaly for the country as a whole during a period of the most rapid fall in climo for dailies.