GaWx

Opinions? https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/real-time-2025-atlantic-hurricane?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share Per Cycloneye of Storm 2K, WeatherTiger is suggesting: Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%. —————————— Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98 So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models. *Corrected

I’ll put this out here for potential discussion purposes. From met. Tony Brite: Edit: one caveat. Tony Brite is assuming 2025 will be just cold neutral ENSO. But per RONI, weak La Niña is actually favored. Also, my research suggests weak La Niña may actually be worse than cold neutral as far as the chance for a rough US hurricane season.

If we still have, say, 60 or less ACE by 9/30, then I’d agree that the chances for an active season ACEwise would be way down. However, that wouldn’t mean no chance when considering that 2024, 2020, and 2005 each had 75-82 ACE Oct 1st+. That would mean that 140 would still be technically attainable on the high end.

Bastardi is taking the opposite side of this, which is what I was referring to about warmer subtropics than tropics tending to stabilize the tropics, themselves: My take is that those subtropical waters will likely largely warm back up within a couple of weeks and make this cooling a forgotten thing by then.

What Derek Ortt is saying is debatable. Why? Because this has cooled a portion of the W subtropical region much more than the tropics, themselves. That arguably actually makes the W tropical Atlantic, itself, more favorable because this brings their anomalies closer together. Warmer subtropics than tropics tends to stabilize the tropics. Erin has reversed that to some extent. Edit: To make it more complicated, these storm related coolings have been reversing more quickly in recent years. So, we’ll see how long that subtropical region remains cool.

ACE is now at 37.14 with just a little more to be added from Fernand. This puts 2024 13th highest of the last 75 (83 percentile). The 1951-2024 avg through today is only 22. However, Invest 90L headed to the W Caribbean is now considered dead. Overall, the models including Euro Weeklies continue to look quite a bit quieter than climo through the 1st half of Sept. If that verifies, we’d quickly fall back down to at least NN ACE. From that point on, it would still remain to be seen whether or not PhiEaglesfan will be right about Erin being about the only big deal this season. I’ll be more than happy to give him kudos if he were to be right. But there’s still such a long way to go, especially in a cold ENSO season, which are often backended. In addition, recent seasons have been getting more backended, quite possibly related to GW.

Everything you said makes sense. Right here in my normally highly vulnerable location along with very high water table due to an insane nearly 17” of rainfall month to date (without a TC causing any of it obviously), I’m quite pleased about the current pattern. Thus I feel about as safe as I’m ever going to feel in late August when sometimes I’m on pins and needles wondering if I’m going to luck out. The big question though is whether an autumn-like pattern in much of August in the E US overall means that same pattern will likely continue through at least most of Sept. or do these anomalous fallish patterns tend to change or even reverse? There may not be a large enough dataset to analyze this.

Being a near east-coaster and also considering last year’s devaststing killer season, especially in NC, I sincerely love your optimism and hope the current pattern holds. One hit already this season is more than enough. Besides it’s fortunately not easy for the EC to be hit compared to the Gulf. Getting two EC TS+ hits in one year isn’t too common…~1/3 of years since 1995. However, regarding EC hits from storms that weren’t home-brew: -2022’s only hit wasn’t til 9/30 (Ian) -2018’s only hit wasn’t til 9/14 (Florence) -2016’s only hit other than TS Bonnie in May wasn't til 10/8 (Matthew) -2012’s only hit other than TS Beryl in May wasn't til 10/29 (Sandy) -2003’s only hit wasn’t til 9/18 (Isabel) -1999’s only H hit wasn’t til 9/15-6 (Floyd) -1989’s only hit wasn’t til 9/21-2 (Hugo) -1985’s worst hit by far wasn't til 9/26-7 (Gloria) -1950’s only hit wasn’t til 10/17 (King) -1947 had a rare 3 EC hits and they were all 9/17+ and only one was home-brew -1945 had one H hit and it wasn’t til 9/15 -1944’s worst H hit wasn’t til 9/14 -1941’s only hit wasn’t til 10/6 -1938’s only hit wasn’t til 9/21 -1928’s worst hit wasn’t til 9/16 -1898’s worst hit by far wasn’t til 10/2 So, these 16 years’ EC hits weren’t til 9/14+ and 50% weren’t til 9/21+.

After that re-drenching ~2” that fell yesterday evening, I’ve had as of 11PM only some on and off largely light rain since early this morning amounting to <0.1” here despite some nearby areas having heavier rains. That gets me to a ridiculous ~16.7” MTD! The mosquitos have been constantly partying this month like it was 1999. We’ll see how the rest of the night goes.

Yeah, I realized you were using 1991-2020 normals. But on that and even on the 2nd chart, it still looks to me like the bulk of the warming at Phil. has been since the late (or maybe mid) 1980s. Imagine cutting the 2nd chart off in 1987. If so, I don’t think any longterm warming trend would show. Instead, it appears to me like the line would be pretty flat. Do you see what I’m seeing?

Don, Am I looking at that graph right? Has virtually all of the warming at Phil been since the late 1980s?

Thanks for your replies! I’m all for open discussion of alternative ideas and that’s why I posted this and others from him. If the alternative idea appears to be plausible, it would probably be supported to an extent. OTOH, if not, it would likely be refuted. Also, I feel it’s important for others to be aware of what’s being spread to so many people (Weather Bell subs in this case) whether plausible or not. Thus, I expect to continue posting Dr. V stuff. In this case, Dr. V’s idea has been refuted several times here. That helps others like myself to be more knowledgeable about the doubtfulness of the plausibility of his idea. Not only that, I learned thanks to bdgwx about OMICS and its fraud. Today, JB posted this as a followup: I'm now going to incorporate this into my (forever) paper which is now in its second draft. The finished product will then be submitted to The International Journal of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources, a peer-reviewed journal that has accepted other papers I've written in the past (in fact, they solicit me on a regular basis for contributions). That paper will then get passed on to Tom Nelson, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, and my Congressional Representative, Mike Haridopolis. That will hopefully get the geothermal hypothesis onto a higher plane. The bolded adds even more to my doubts about Dr. V. Why? I hate to bring politics into this, but Zeldin and Haridopolis are far righties, which imho has been the source of a lot of misinfo of all kinds, including CC. I’m saying that as a moderate independent as I’m not a liberal or a Democrat. Also, Thomas Nelson is the producer of “Climate The Movie: The Cold Truth”, which tries to minimize the significance of AGW. @donsutherland1

We’re apparently about to have TS Fernand a few hundred miles SSE of Bermuda. Also, Invest 99L is significantly more active on the 12Z Euro ens as it gets to the W Caribbean in ~a week. If it actually does develop there, watch out!

After light rain earlier this evening, heavier rain has developed here. Edit: Related to the above: FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 757 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, JASPER. * WHEN...UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 756 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. - ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, WINDSOR FOREST, WILMINGTON ISLAND, COFFEE BLUFF, SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MONTGOMERY. ——————- Edit: FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 958 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025 GAC051-SCC053-230300- /O.EXT.KCHS.FA.Y.0122.000000T0000Z-250823T0300Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHATHAM GA-JASPER SC- 958 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025 ..FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, JASPER. * WHEN...UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 958 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. - ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, WINDSOR FOREST, WILMINGTON ISLAND, COFFEE BLUFF, SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MONTGOMERY. ———- Edit: I ended up with ~2” (backyard is soaked yet again) bringing me to ~16.65” MTD!!

From Dr. Viterito (via JB), the person who thinks that warmer oceans (and thus GW) has been caused mainly by undersea volcanic activity: I’m putting this out for discussion purposes, not to take sides with him: Arctic Ice Comment from Dr V ..And now we have yet another research nugget that needs to be explored further. This recent article by Matt Vespa points to the fact that Arctic sea ice has not declined since around 2005. So, the Climate Change Narrative Just Took a Broadside. Want to Guess What It Was Over? A deeper dive into the data from Climate Reanalyzer paints a slightly different picture. Specifically, it pinpoints the year when the decline stopped as 2007. Here is their chart: Climate Reanalyzer, University of Maine As a correlate, the Mid-Ocean Spreading Zone Seismic Activity (MOSZSA) matches up VERY well. Here is that chart: Clearly, the "trough" in Arctic sea ice extent began the same year (2007) MOSZSA plateaued i.e., 2007!!! Too many things correlate strongly with MOSZSA: global temperatures, global sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice, the AMO Index, oceanic heat content, Western Pacific thermocline depths, Kuroshio intensification, and other responsive geophysical phenomena. More to follow...

The rain is still falling lightly this evening. Though a portion of the W part of the county received ~3”+ (centered on the junction of I-16 and I-95) necessitating a flash flood warning, my amount so far hasn’t added to that much…probably ~0.25” so far. That gets me to an amazing ~14.65” MTD with none of that from a TC! But that’s not the end of it!From KCHS NWS office, a flood watch has been issued for its entire area:SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY PASS THROUGH ALOFT. THIS COUPLED WITH BUILDING PWATS OF 2.25-2.50" AND WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION WHERE WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL SUPPORT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, POSSIBLY >3 IN/HR AT TIMES, GIVEN THE RICH, TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CORRIDOR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A REIDSVILLE-SPRINGFIELD-WALTERBORO-MONCKS CORNER LINE WHERE 20CM SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE RUNNING IN THE >98TH PERCENTILE AS OF THE 18 AUGUST ANALYSIS. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES IN PLACE AND THE INTENSE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE POSSIBLE, THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL CORRIDOR WHERE THE EVENING HIGH TIDES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD ENHANCED THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. STORM TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 2-4" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6".

I’ve been getting the first thunderstorm since Sunday (8/17) since ~6:45PM in a band coming eastward that had collided with the sea-breeze front. Rain rates have been mainly moderate but with some heavy. Before this rain, I had already been up to a whopping 14.4” MTD! Light rain is still falling. I’ve gotten ~0.25” today so far. That gives me ~14.65” MTD. It may be ending shortly.

Thanks as I missed those 60s dewpoints at KSAV Mon afternoon. So, I need to retract what I said about no dewpoints below the low 70s since June. Where I live is closer to the coast and thus typically has higher dewpoints, but not that much higher. Thus I just edited my earlier post for this correction. My point was that the bulk of the cool, dry airmasses of earlier August didn't reach down here. That I’m still saying has been the case.

1. Erin will end up with ~33-4 ACE, which you didn’t forecast. Currently, 2024 has sharply risen to 15th of the last 75 years and it will rise several positions from there before Erin winds down, when total ACE should be ~36-38: 2. It does appear quiet ~8/24-9/7 on the ensembles/Euro Weeklies and there could easily be below normal ACE through that period. But even if so and allowing for ~5 added ACE by 9/7, ACE would still be near normal (in the 40s). 3. The Euro Weeklies have then been showing an increase in activity (likely MJO related), especially during 9/15-21: 9/8-14: 10-11 ACE 9/15-21: 13-15 ACE If these verify well, ACE would then be in the 60s. 4. The tendency in recent years, especially during cold ENSO has been for a more active late Sept through Nov. 2024 had its most active period late Sept-mid Oct. If that occurs again, 2025 would end up as another active season.

It would be nice if it would also get down here for a change. We still have had no dewpoints below the lower 70s since June. **8/21/25 Edit for correction: I totally missed that KSAV had hourly dewpoints as low as 62 during the afternoon of August 18th in between the morning and evening/overnight 70s. So, technically, I’m wrong despite my dewpoints often being a few degrees higher due to being closer to the coast than KSAV.

Barry, I agree because that’s me.

Thanks. I just found it. This is what I posted on 5/21/24 and thus this analysis doesn’t include what happened in 2024, a really bad year with it scoring 5G/0E. 2024’s ASO RONI was -0.75: ————————— I just did an analysis of CONUS landfalls for RONI ASO -0.50 to -1.00 vs sub -1.00. E = east coast and G = Gulf coast including FL Keys; if storm landfalled on both as a H, I counted it as 1/2 E and 1/2 G (1995’s Erin and 2022’s Ian) ASO RONI -0.50 to -1.00: every season at least 1 1954: 3 (3E) 1955: 2 (2E) 1964: 4 (2E, 2G) 1970: 1 (1G) 1983: 1 (1G) 1995: 2 (0.5E, 1.5G) 1999: 3 (1E, 2G) 2011: 1 (1E) 2017: 3 (3G) 2021: 2 (2G) AVG: 2.20 (0.95E, 1.25G) ASO RONI sub -1.00: less active avg despite 2020 1973: 0 1975: 1 (1G) 1988: 1 (1G) 1998: 3 (1E, 2G) 2007: 1 (1G) 2010: 0 2016: 2 (1E, 1G) 2020: 6 (1E, 5G) 2022: 2 (1.5E, 0.5G) AVG: 1.78 (0.50E, 1.28G) Analysis of ASO RONI wk vs mod+: -sig. more CONUS H landfalls (100%/70% had 1+/2+) -sig. more E coast landfalls (60%/30% had 1+/2+) -slightly fewer G coast landfalls due to 2020 being active -E being nearly as active as G for wk is relatively high for E -2020 ASO is mod+ per RONI but is only wk per ONI H tracks: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/ RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

I’ll try to find it with a search on “RONI”.

As shown on the image below, one can see how rapidly 2025’s ACE has increased in relation to others since 1951: it’s now 16th highest of the last 75