GaWx

Regarding the AEW near 40W, the 0Z UKMET dropped it again, but the 12Z just brought it back once more only to have it dissipate in the NE Caribbean while it is moving WNW as it runs into Hispaniola: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.6N 54.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2022 72 16.5N 55.7W 1011 28 0000UTC 16.09.2022 84 16.6N 58.8W 1009 31 1200UTC 16.09.2022 96 17.0N 61.6W 1009 32 0000UTC 17.09.2022 108 17.1N 64.4W 1008 30 1200UTC 17.09.2022 120 17.5N 67.3W 1008 28 0000UTC 18.09.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

When will it end? I got my AC working again but here comes more heavy thunderstorms, this time in a line with lots of CTG lightning. Edit: Once again, I got well over 1" and it was within just 30 minutes. Street flooding again. Standing water throughout the yards.

The 12Z EPS is suddenly MUCH more active with this (the AEW near 40W)! This is the most active EPS with this in days and is one of the most active with it yet! I count 12 hurricanes amongst the 51 members. So, that means that at 12Z that the UKMET, JMA, and the EPS are much more active with this and the strongest with this in days (and ever for the JMA). Maybe this is going to be a sleeper after all? Edit: A new convection tower is popping as the sun sets (so still not far after DMIN) near 11N, 40.5W, which may be near the strongest vorticity/weak surface low. Lets see whether or not this expands into DMAX later tonight. Edit: I count nearly 20 hurricanes among the 51 members (~40%) later in the run with some really scary runs for the SE US 9/22-26. This has to be one of the most threatening EPS runs for the SE this season to date! I count 7 hurricane hits on the SE (1 FL, 1 GA, 2 SC, 3 NC). In addition, I see 2 direct hits on New England. Yikes, hoping this is just a scary tease!

Now we can add the 12Z JMA to the 12Z UKMET with a TC from this. I know the model sucks overall, but a JMA 168 is far better than a GFS 384 and it is fwiw the first JMA run to ever have a TC from this AEW. This shows a strengthening TD moving slowly NW in the NE Caribbean. This leads to as much 4" of rainfall in the far NE Caribbean..so this isn't just a weak low on here:

IF this AEW near 40W were to turn out to be a sleeper and actually become a TC in the MDR on September 15th near 54W as the 12Z UKMET has, it would be very similar in terms of location and date to the geneses of what turned out to be big impact storms in three of the eight 3rd year cold ENSO analogs fwiw: - 1975: Eloise formed 9/13 near 54W, was the first TS in the MDR that season, and had the biggest impact of any TC that year: - 1917: #4 formed 9/20 near 57W and was the first MDR storm in 3 weeks. This also had the biggest impact of any TC that season: - 1894: #4 formed 9/18 near 51W and was the first MDR storm in nearly 3 weeks. This was among the highest impact storms of the season:

Check this out. The UKMET, which was the first model to have this in the 12Z run exactly one week ago and had completely dropped it in the prior four runs ending with 0Z today, just brought this back at 12Z. It has it as a TS moving WNW in the E Caribbean at the end of the run after forming east of the Lesser Antilles at hour 90: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2022 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.7N 53.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2022 96 17.0N 55.1W 1009 36 0000UTC 16.09.2022 108 16.3N 57.9W 1008 37 1200UTC 16.09.2022 120 16.9N 60.0W 1008 38 0000UTC 17.09.2022 132 16.9N 62.2W 1007 32 1200UTC 17.09.2022 144 17.6N 64.4W 1006 37

Compared to 24 hours ago, this AEW (very weak low now near 10-11 N, 39-40 W) does look a tad more interesting. Actually, at DMAX, it had looked even more interesting but of course the convection has since waned. It seems to have rather compact low level vorticity.

The main purpose of this thread is to promote forecast related general discussion for the Atlantic tropics, active or not. There will almost always be things to talk about in this regard throughout every hurricane season. Even if inactive, there can be good discussions covering things like the likely bearish factors, comparing to past seasons, noting how poor active forecasts from pro mets are going etc. If one isn't interested in forecasting discussions during quiet times, that's fine and understandable but that doesn't mean others who want to discuss it shouldn't. In a way, I find it more of a challenge and thus more interesting in that regard in trying to forecast development when there's nothing out there. In other words, when will it wake up if at all? Meanwhile, it is currently about as quiet as can be and the model consensus shows very little. Are we going to have the quietest mid September since at least 1966? That in itself is pretty fascinating to me, especially because none of the pro forecasters that I saw predicted this. I still expect the FL gulf coast to be threatened as early as late September as per the 8 ENSO analogs I've been following. The 18Z GFS has a hit there, but the long range GFS by itself is pretty useless. Here's something that's very rare during peak season: 0Z UKMET MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.09.2022 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 144 HOURS

Bastardi's Saturday Summary was only 6 minutes long today: less than half the normal length. The 6 minutes includes one minute at the start regarding Queen Elizabeth passing and one minute at the end about college football. He addressed the tropics, which he said "are not over yet". He sounded kind of down. He said the reason for the quiet has been the very warm North Atlantic. He talked about the tropics for only two minutes.

It has been insanely wet since the 4" from Colin on July 1st. Since my last report late yesterday morning, I've received another 1.74" of very much unneeded rainfall bringing me to a whopping 8.74" so far this month, ~34" since June 1st, and ~27" since July 1st!! Where there isn't standing water, my grass is like a wet sponge. With that high of a water table, my AC condensation isn't draining properly as it has nowhere to go. All it can do is drain a little at a time. I have an automatic shutoff valve that shuts off the AC whenever the water in the drain pipe is backed up enough so as to prevent flooding inside near the air handler. That means only intermittent AC leading to warm and sticky inside. But there's a lot worse things than that including flooding! Currently: what else is new? More rain though it is very light and already ending thank goodness!

Highly doubtful imho but never say never since nobody knows and 5 of 8 3rd year cold ENSO analogs had a high impact storm form 9/15-20. Any AEW has the most widespread SAL of the season deep down in the MDR between 35W and 60W (down to 9N!) to get through and the models have kept delaying development day after day. Now the model consensus support for TCG of the AEW near 35W is as weak as it has been since the 12Z 9/4 UKMET run was the first to show it. Model consensus is now suggesting no TCG anywhere through at least 9/20. The last year there were no TS+ on the map 9/10-20 was 1966 if you go by UTC and 1939 based on AST!

Related: Someone elsewhere asked when was the last time there was no TS+ 9/10-15. My answer: "The last one was 1992 and then 1985 along with 1975 (both 3rd year cold ENSO analogs), and then 1966. Looking back at the 8 ENSO 3rd year analogs, 4 of 8 had no TC 9/10-15: 1985, 1975, 1917, and 1894. These 4 years had high impact storms that formed in the MDR (mainly 50-60W) soon after fwiw." Regarding those 4 years, those high impact storms formed 9/16-20 fwiw. If we take today's models at face value, there would be none to form through at least 9/20. With the current MDR SAL as widespread as anytime this season (it goes as far south as 9N!), it is believable that there'd be nothing new through 9/20. But nobody knows for sure as model consensus can be wrong. I'll go a step further and see when was the last time there were no TS+ 9/10-20. Answer: if we go by UTC it was 1966 barely. If going by AST, it was 1939 although 1952 was close.

The last thing I want is a hurricane to directly hit here. For one thing, a hurricane hitting in this area means I'm going to want to get the hell out of here not just because of the danger of falling trees, but also the possibility of longlasting power outages and the misery that accompanies them. I'm talking even just from a cat 1 H as that's all that it takes to lead to these things. So, due to evacuation, I wouldn't be experiencing it. On top of all of this, I have a much bigger concern, the safety and comfort of my disabled, mainly bedbound brother, whom I'm the caregiver for. I greatly fear what would happen if we have to evacuate. I couldn't transport him myself and thus would need the equivalent of EMTs and an ambulance just to get him out of here! And then l'd have to deal with where the ambulance would even be able to take him. Even if I could get them to take him out of the danger area (say, 50+ miles inland), it isn't like they could just take him to a hotel. He sleeps on a full powered hospital bed with a special mattress. I flat out don't know how I'd be able to handle this and thus it is downright scary to just think about this. For those who want to be hit, many of them (assuming they're sane and not selfish and would want best for the loved ones they're caring for) would have a totally different perspective if they were in my shoes.

Still another batch of steady rain here with embedded heavier showers now.

Although ACE has been impressive for Sep 1-9 near 25-6 vs the 30 year avg near 18, it looks to drop off to near zero 9/11-15 and thus ~29-30 looks to be the max ACE for 9/1-15, barely under the normal of 33. So, what had been looking to me like an excellent shot at 40+ won't happen. Fail for my 40+ prediction for 9/1-15.

More rain yesterday and especially overnight along with a new area of rain all adding to over 2" has me already near 7" for Sept so far! MBY went from among the driest in the SE US mid November through May leading to areas of cement hard soil requiring lots of sprinkler action to very wet/wetter than the vast majority of the SE since then (especially since July 1st) leading to a very high water table and a haven for mosquitoes. It is really amazing how much wetter this portion of the county has been in comparison to the western portion this summer!

The latest TWO, regarding the AEW in the E Atlantic, brought down TC chances to 20% from 30%. I think all here would agree that makes sense based on weaker model consensus and 20% even seems too high to me now. Even 10% would be looking generous for 5 day chances. The UKMET, which was the first model to develop this (12Z run of Sunday 9/4) and had all but one run do the same since has dropped it again in today's 0Z and 12Z runs. The non-ICON models/ensembles have hardly anything now. The dry and stable MDR has apparently claimed another victim. The latest SAL outbreaks are dominating much of the MDR!

I think it is a good post for here because this isn't just for whining, but what do I know?

New tropical whining and banter thread:

With the main forecasting thread now filled with 75%+ whining, I thought it would be good to try a separate thread for things like whining, banter, and preferences on getting hit to clear up the main thread somewhat.

We could use a separate banter/let off steam/why it has been inactive tropical thread imho.

Check out the latest SAL map. There is a strong outbreak with the accompanying stratocumulus that gets as far south as 10N just to it's NW!

They can do all of the research they want, but there will still be both underperforming and overperforming seasons in the future. This uncertainty is what makes forecasting the tropics very interesting and it will never go away. Regarding what's to come or not to come with the AEW just offshore Africa, whereas the 12 GFS is doing nothing with it like in recent runs, the ICON has it as a TS ~600 miles E of the Virgin Islands starting to recurve NW at the end as it senses a subtle weakness ahead of a trough moving off the NE US. This could easily just be a ghost, especially when considering the MDR since Bonnie's precursor. The ICON has a history of being too bullish and the trend of the other models has been toward not developing this. Edit for 12Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.9N 43.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.09.2022 96 14.9N 43.8W 1009 25 0000UTC 13.09.2022 108 16.8N 46.0W 1008 31 1200UTC 13.09.2022 120 18.4N 48.8W 1007 38 0000UTC 14.09.2022 132 18.9N 51.1W 1007 33 1200UTC 14.09.2022 144 19.3N 53.9W 1006 39

Very well said. Do you know of anyone posting here who has claimed this season to have been anywhere close to active? Onward we go, whether inactive or not from this point forward. In addition to Earl, I'm currently most interested in whether or not the AEW just offshore will end up another model ghost. I wouldn't bet against it ending up a ghost, but nobody knows for sure. It is the uncertainty that makes forecast discussion interesting and is why we have forecasting threads. Otherwise, it would be boring from a forecasting perspective. If this one were to end up a ghost, it would end up fooling about all of the models as even the GFS has blown this one up on some runs. I continue to expect the W Caribbean "season" (mainly 9/20-10/20) to be interesting like it has been in many years of this active era and likely the most memorable part of this season. Analogs suggest for FL Gulf coast to be hit and to be at the highest risk this season. I've been saying this since late July. The season to date is largely irrelevant in regard to this.

So far, there's no indication of a weak September. It has actually been more active than average in terms of ACE thanks to not one but two hurricanes already with Earl getting quite strong now. Meanwhile, 0Z ICON illustrates well the danger of the AEW just off Africa developing into a weak surface low but also remaining weak through 55W and thus less likely to recurve safely. This has it still weak at 19N, 58W, moving W toward the far NE Caribbean with no trough looking to recurve it out anytime soon after and with it moving toward very warm SSTs. This would be a potentially dangerous setup if it were to verify similarly. Edit: After just one run without it, it is back on the 0Z UKMET though it is more delayed than ever: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 19.0N 46.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 13.09.2022 132 19.7N 48.3W 1010 29 0000UTC 14.09.2022 144 20.8N 50.5W 1009 29