GaWx

0Z UKMET: slightly west of 12Z near Georgetown, SC HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 81.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 29.09.2022 0 27.1N 81.8W 973 49 1200UTC 29.09.2022 12 28.2N 80.7W 989 46 0000UTC 30.09.2022 24 29.6N 79.7W 984 55 1200UTC 30.09.2022 36 31.4N 79.2W 978 55 0000UTC 01.10.2022 48 34.3N 79.5W 987 37 1200UTC 01.10.2022 60 35.7N 80.0W 1002 28 0000UTC 02.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

The NHC does a fantastic job overall. Their forecast verifications speak for themselves. However, I am wondering why they are saying that it has been moving NNE for the last 6 hours when it has been a straight NE move each hour since 4 PM. It has moved from 26.8 N, 82.1 W, then to 27.4 N, 81.5 W at 10 PM.

Agreed. Other than the UKMET, the models are continuing to play catch-up. Ian continues to move on the right side of the consensus and at a faster speed. It wouldn't surprise me if there's no sharp left turn to NW or even NNW. From a climo perspective, that kind of track after crossing FL to the NE is virtually unheard of though that doesn't mean it can't happen, of course. As of now, I'm also thinking closer to Georgetown than HH. It may even end up well north of there for all we know right now.

12Z UKMET: 2nd landfall much further north at Myrtle Beach instead of Charleston and near a cat 2 hurricane: HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 26.0N 82.7W 949 92 0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 27.4N 81.4W 978 47 1200UTC 29.09.2022 24 28.5N 80.6W 987 51 0000UTC 30.09.2022 36 29.7N 79.5W 983 59 1200UTC 30.09.2022 48 31.5N 79.0W 976 62 0000UTC 01.10.2022 60 34.6N 79.0W 985 40 1200UTC 01.10.2022 72 36.3N 79.5W 1002 28 0000UTC 02.10.2022 84 37.5N 79.0W 1007 27 1200UTC 02.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

I'm factoring in the SSE to NNW coast orientation to say that 15 miles west of that forecast from 11 PM, should it hold through landfall, would mean a lot more than 15 miles further NNW up the coast for landfall.

Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement.

The Euro initialized at 8PM (0Z) near the right latitude (just south of Key West's latitude) but at 18 mb weaker than actual strength at 8PM.

2AM NHC is at 83.0 W again. So, no net east move in longitude in 5 hours as it was at 83.0 at 9PM. May be pretty meaningless due to wobbling and thus may make up for this over the next few hours, but I still find it interesting. It has moved only at about 7 mph the last 3 hours fwiw.

The 1AM NHC position actually ticked west by 0.1 vs the prior updates. After being at 83.0 at 9PM, it was at 82.9 10 PM-12:30 AM and then the 1AM had it back at 83.0. So, no eastward component of motion each of the last 3 hours and no net east component of motion in four hours.

Ian appears to have been moving steadily N instead of NNE recently. If so, was this expected?

0Z UKMET: landfall a bit north of the 12Z and is near Punta Gorda. Exits FL at Cape Canaveral. Then landfall a little north of Charleston: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.09.2022 HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 83.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 28.09.2022 0 24.3N 83.0W 961 72 1200UTC 28.09.2022 12 26.0N 82.6W 959 83 0000UTC 29.09.2022 24 27.2N 81.8W 979 58 1200UTC 29.09.2022 36 28.1N 81.0W 990 47 0000UTC 30.09.2022 48 29.4N 79.9W 986 60 1200UTC 30.09.2022 60 31.1N 79.5W 984 51 0000UTC 01.10.2022 72 33.4N 79.7W 986 40 1200UTC 01.10.2022 84 35.0N 80.6W 1001 28 0000UTC 02.10.2022 96 36.0N 80.1W 1006 20 1200UTC 02.10.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

Nobody should ever take the troll ldub (ex rainstorm, who has been doing the same kind of trolling for 20 years back to the Wright Wx BB days) seriously. It is pretty funny to read the replies debating ldub as if he or she were being intellectually honest.

Yes, orange is previous. Here's the HM tweet that has this map:

UKMET continues leading the trend southward. The 12Z track, in red, goes from halfway between Naples and Ft. Myers to way down at Melbourne:

I agree 100%. The UKMET, now 20 miles south of Ft. Myers and putting that city and even Naples in the major danger zone, has lead the charge. The 12Z run is the 11th in a row (going back to the 0Z 9/25 run) with a landfall south of Tampa, by far the best performance of the major operational models (even better than the ICON). Will future runs go even further south to Naples or has it reached its furthest south landfall point? We'll see.

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL to Melbourne, and then 2nd landfall Charleston: HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56 0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60 1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60 0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42 1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44 0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53 1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57 0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40 1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29 0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23 1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

Ian has made it to at least 83.7 W. The 0Z UKMET made it as far west as only 83.4. This along with it being the most SE track of any current model run makes me think that this run's track is likely too far SE with its landfall just north of Ft. Myers.

Right now it is near 83.6 W with 83.7 W the furthest west 11PM NHC point. So, this looks like it is right in the forecasted path.

0Z UKMET: even further south just N of Ft. Myers, exits FL near Cape Canaveral, and then 2nd landfall Charleston: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.09.2022 HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 83.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 27.09.2022 0 20.8N 83.3W 984 51 1200UTC 27.09.2022 12 22.8N 83.4W 985 47 0000UTC 28.09.2022 24 24.4N 83.2W 983 49 1200UTC 28.09.2022 36 26.1N 82.5W 982 59 0000UTC 29.09.2022 48 27.4N 81.6W 991 45 1200UTC 29.09.2022 60 28.4N 80.6W 995 46 0000UTC 30.09.2022 72 29.4N 80.4W 993 53 1200UTC 30.09.2022 84 30.5N 79.9W 993 44 0000UTC 01.10.2022 96 33.0N 80.1W 990 38 1200UTC 01.10.2022 108 35.0N 81.1W 999 28 0000UTC 02.10.2022 120 36.4N 80.6W 1005 21 1200UTC 02.10.2022 132 36.8N 79.9W 1008 23 0000UTC 03.10.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

0Z ICON landfall about same place as 18Z (maybe slightly north) and a little later

0Z ICON 18 is slightly SW of 18Z 24 although it is still a tiny bit east of the 12Z 30

If Ian ends up landfalling south of Tampa and then goes well inland into FL from there, the UKMET will be the big winner as it has had this scenario since the 0Z run of 9/25, eight runs in a row. It had been largely discounted til this last run, but it now has a good shot at a win as the Euro, ICON, and HMON were late to the party. It also was the big winner for Irma in 2017. So, I guess once every five years it gets a big win.

Because the 18Z shift suggests landfall at only hour 48 per UKMET, Euro, ICON, and HMON as opposed to it being out at at a much longer timeframe, I think this shift has a high chance to be reflecting the reality to come.

I don't think that there's any nonsense about 18Z, especially because they're doing special balloon launches at 18Z: https://www.wowt.com/2022/09/25/more-weather-balloons-going-up-help-forecast-soon-be-hurricane-ian/?outputType=amp