GaWx

We did too. My highest winds were before 5PM. I had earlier thought per models/NHC that 5PM was to be the start of the worst. I think the main reason is that it got to its closest point just after 5PM instead of the previously expected 8PM.

The perfect major storm that not only hit a sparsely populated area but also fortunately had an eyewall replacement going on just before landfall as opposed to the continued strengthening that some were expecting. But Perry, Madison, and Valdosta still had a big hit.

I think there have been at least a few.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 253 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2023 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1222 PM TORNADO 1 NW GOOSE CREEK 32.99N 80.04W 08/30/2023 BERKELEY SC EMERGENCY MNGR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT A CAR WAS FLIPPED OVER AT THE INTERSECTION OF CAMELOT DRIVE AND SOUTH GOOSE GREEK BLVD. VIDEO WAS USED TO CONFIRM THAT THE CAR WAS HIT BY A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO. NO OTHER DAMAGE REPORTED.

I lost power an hour ago. My highest gusts have been ~45 mph. So, not bad vs what we were facing IF that were to end up being the worst. I was worried about gusts in the 60s, which would bring a lot more trees down.

So, the downgrade is 9 hours ahead of what the 5AM advisory had and 4+ hours ahead of what the 11AM advisory had.

Good to see although not surprising based on earlier trends. But right when downgrade occurred and after blinking on and off many times, I lost power (~20 min ago). I had a gust in the low 40s ~2 hours ago and a similar one recently, but nothing too bad so far. And it is moving more quickly than forecasted. As of 5PM NHC update, it was already due W of SAV (40 miles W) at 32.2N, 81.7W. That's nearly 3 hours ahead of what the 11AM NHC had as it had it due W of SAV not til 8PM (32.4N, 81.1W).

The 12Z UKMET still has that MDR TC that the Euro and other models have though it isn't as strong as the 0Z: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.1N 20.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.09.2023 84 10.1N 20.2W 1009 28 1200UTC 03.09.2023 96 10.3N 22.8W 1009 25 0000UTC 04.09.2023 108 12.1N 26.6W 1009 26 1200UTC 04.09.2023 120 12.4N 30.5W 1008 27 0000UTC 05.09.2023 132 12.9N 34.2W 1008 29 1200UTC 05.09.2023 144 13.4N 38.2W 1007 31 0000UTC 06.09.2023 156 13.9N 41.0W 1006 33 1200UTC 06.09.2023 168 14.2N 44.3W 1004 38

Hopefully not. It appears that the center may be tracking inland of Savannah a decent amount, which would keep winds down somewhat vs how high they might have otherwise been. Combined with the quicker weakening vs NHC forecasts that I just posted about, that combination would be good news to keep winds down from how high it earlier appeared winds might get. I earlier thought outages would be widespread along with numerous trees down throughout the area. That may still end up being the case as winds are picking up and will get strong by late afternoon. But perhaps it won't be as bad as earlier feared.

Compared to the 5AM NHC forecast, it has weakened quite a bit more quickly than forecasted then. The 5AM had Idalia still with winds of 100 mph as of 2PM. But as of 1PM, winds were already down to 80. The 11AM had adjusted for this quicker weakening because it was already down to 90 then. This updated forecast had it weakening from 90 at 11AM to 75 at 8PM. But with it already down to 80 at 1PM, it appears that it is weakening even more quickly than the 11AM NHC forecast.

Some good news. Compared to the 5AM NHC forecast, it has weakened quite a bit more quickly than forecasted then. The 5AM had Idalia still with winds of 100 mph as of 2PM. But as of 1PM, winds were already down to 80. The 11AM had adjusted for this quicker weakening because it was already down to 90 then. This updated forecast had it weakening from 90 at 11AM to 75 at 8PM. But with it already down to 80 at 1PM, it appears that it is weakening even more quickly than the 11AM NHC forecast. Edit: down to 75 at 2PM vs the 11AM still having 75 at 8PM

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 ...DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...1000 AM POSITION UPDATE... NOAA radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum pressure based on surface observations is 964 mb (28.47 inches). A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Valdosta, Georgia. An unofficial automated observing site at Madison High School in Madison, Florida, reported a wind gust to 67 mph (108 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 83.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM ENE OF MADISON FLORIDA ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Stevenson

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 900 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE OCCURING ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...900 AM POSITION UPDATE... NOAA radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum pressure based on surface observations is 957 mb (28.26 inches). An automated weather station at Perry Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h) within the past hour. A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower located near Perry, Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h). A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar Key, Florida, recently reported a water level of 6.8 feet above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area

If not there, Perry has gotten close. CNN has been showing major live oak tree damage, including whole trees being knocked down. Some of these huge trees are likely at least several hundred years old.

Yes, this is a good point that I'm aware of. So, I realize that getting close to +2 for OHC would be best to get really good OHC support for a super Nino. So, do I think we have a decent chance to get close to +2 by, say, November? Yes, I do. Look how fast it has rewarmed over the last month! And there appears to be much more warming to come over the next ~3 months.

It likely will be THE worst in recorded history for Valdosta and nearby areas in a SW to NE corridor. Whereas it won't be the worst on record closer to the GA coast for wind, rain, or surge, it could very well end up being one of the worst on record there for winds for a storm coming up over land from the Gulf. That's why I'm concerned about what's to come here, especially ~3PM through 10PM. At a minimum, I expect to lose power for an extended period. I'm concerned about large branches and possibly whole trees coming down. Edit: I'm also concerned about isolated tornadoes from the outer feeder bands as they come ashore.

With a Keaton Beach landfall (south central Taylor County), the winners from the 0Z runs are the UKMET and ICON (just about perfect). The Euro was ~10 miles too far left/NW. The GFS and CMC were ~30 miles too far left/NW.

Right on cue the OHC is now rapidly bouncing back with it already approaching +1.20! This map is as of ~August 25th. It wouldn't take a heck of a lot to reach a new high in Sept. On average in a one year Nino, the OHC doesn't peak til November. So, there's plenty of time for OHC warming to continue. This rise would help to support the super Nino peak I've been expecting since the JMA went that warm on its most recent run earlier this month:

The 0Z UKMET has a new TC forming in the far SE MDR at hour 78. This is for the AEW following the current E MDR orange. What's notable about it is that it is quite aggressive considering how conservative it usually is. It has it down to 999 mb at 168 hours at 12.9N, 40.7W, moving steadily WNW. That means it could threaten the LAs in 10 days. What should be concerning to the LAs is that the Euro has something similar along with notable members on the last several EPS runs. In addition, the GFS, CMC, and ICON have it though it looks to recurve on those: 0Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.7N 15.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 02.09.2023 84 10.3N 17.7W 1007 46 0000UTC 03.09.2023 96 10.9N 19.0W 1007 34 1200UTC 03.09.2023 108 12.1N 22.9W 1008 30 0000UTC 04.09.2023 120 11.6N 26.7W 1008 28 1200UTC 04.09.2023 132 11.7N 30.9W 1007 35 0000UTC 05.09.2023 144 11.7N 34.9W 1004 36 1200UTC 05.09.2023 156 12.2N 38.1W 1001 38 0000UTC 06.09.2023 168 12.9N 40.7W 999 46

-0Z CMC as expected in correction mode shifted vs the 12Z to the right significantly (~50 miles) to far NW Taylor County -0Z ICON vs 18Z shifted very slightly left (~5 miles) to SE Taylor County -0Z GFS vs 18Z shifted left 15 miles into far NW Taylor County -0Z UKMET about same as 18Z in south central Taylor County -0Z Euro vs 12Z shifted 20 miles right to C Taylor County *Edited to add Euro

The more reliable models are pretty tightly centered on Taylor County, FL, landfall centered on ~9AM EDT. Then tracks go mainly just inland from Savannah, which is about the worst possible track regarding winds. Also, high tide there, which is an astronomical high tide due to perigee and full moon, is at 8:30PM, which is near the time of the center being closest.

Taylor County is best bet per models. But it has ~45 miles on the Gulf. So, pretty large. And a lot of swamp/marsh. Good luck with that!

Nearly unanimous Taylor County landfall centered on ~9AM EDT. Then it tracks go mainly just inland from Savannah, which is about the worst possible track in terms of winds. Also, high tide there is an astronomical high tide due to perigee and full moon and it's at 8:30PM, which is near the time of the center being closest.

18z UKMET has like the 18Z Euro shifted its landfall 15 miles SE along with the remaining SE US track. The 12Z UK landfall was in C Taylor Cty and the 18Z is in S Taylor Cty. Also, 18Z landfalls 2.5 hours sooner (7:30AM) vs 10AM on 12Z.

~15 mile SE change in track vs 12Z Euro. Landfall still in Taylor county but central rather than NW. Entire track inland is similarly shifted slightly SE.