GaWx

Whereas the 12Z Euro didn’t have a TC, the 12Z Euro ensemble is the most active yet by a good margin as regards landfalling member % on the CONUS. Out of 50 members, 9 (18%) hit FL within Nov 7-12 with even a 10th still in the GOM at 360 (a MH) aiming to hit FL ~Nov 13th. Out of these 9 that hit, 7 appear to be H strength with one a MH. Of the 9 that hit, 2 hit the Panhandle, 4 hit the Big Bend, and 3 hit SW FL (S of Tampa). There are also 2 that miss to the E but hit parts of the W Bahamas. In summary, this run is a bit ominous for W FL. By the way, I count a total of ~18 members (36%) with a TC on the run from whatever source.

The Euro (12Z) still has no TC. However, the CMC ens is about as active as any prior run and the GEFS is still pretty active though not as active as some earlier runs.

Does anyone here remember the ne.weather Usenet Newsgroup (was like a no-frills BB) from the late 90s through early 2000s? Did any of you post there? I did because this was just before Wright Wx BB and ne.weather was the only BB I was aware of at the time. @bluewave @donsutherland1

Thank you. But I don’t recall folks thinking that winter was cooked BEFORE it started. To the contrary there was plenty of optimism, partially fueled by the then very popular and well followed JB as mentioned by Ray and snowman. This was before he had had a chance to establish a long time reputation of a cold bias in winter in the E US. In addition, throughout that winter the GFS was repeatedly forecasting extreme cold, which fueled optimism into the winter. It had a severe cold bias then. I posted a lot about this bias on ne.weather (A Usenet newsgroup…anyone remember those BBs? Among others, Jerry (who later became “weathafella” on Wright Wx BB) was a regular poster there) and subsequently at the newly discovered aforementioned Wright Wx BB because many didn’t realize that reality. This very strong cold biased GFS was repeatedly shown by JB, which was a major reason he kept talking about “vodka” cold. All of that kept those two boards very hyped up into Jan. It wasn’t until at least late Jan and especially Feb that many were finally giving up. By the way, KATL had the most snow that winter since 1991-2 despite being AN by 2.5F. Their 4.6” was over twice the 2” normal. Edit: @weathafellaplease correct me if I’m getting you and another Jerry mixed up as being a regular poster on the ne.weather Usenet Newsgroup BB in the late 90s to early 2000s. Wasn’t that you?

With all due respect, I don’t believe because: 1) This is just a control run of the extremely unreliable CFS looking out 1-3 months, which is of virtually no value. 2) Worse yet is that WeatherBell versions of the CFS have been found to be substantially too cold in the E US vs other versions of the CFS including the NWS’ version, itself, and those from Tropical Tidbits. This has to be due to flawed Weather Bell algorithms and is nothing new. There have been numerous posts about this at AmericanWx though maybe not ITT. 3) Not only are these maps much colder than what the model really shows. But they’re also flawed in that they always have a cold spot in southern Lake Michigan and a warm spot over N Lake Michigan/Michigan.

Early look at 12Z GEFS suggests it will have about as many landfalling members on the Conus as recent runs. Update of 12Z GEFS Conus landfalls: 5 of 30 (17%)

Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.Forecaster Cangialosi

What Ray said/implied about the tendency for a lack of dominant polar blocking in winter when SSN is high (especially -NAO blocking since the 1980s per my research).

Fair enough. Thanks, Ray. But I’ll ask you and the readers in general: Can anyone point to a general E US winter discussion thread that as of late Oct was heavily dominated by pessimism for most of the E US? I’m sincerely wondering about this. I feel that some level of optimism or at least lack of pessimism is very normal at wx enthusiast BBs this far ahead of the start of winter even when models don’t look good. Maybe there is an exception or two. Please point them out if anyone knows.

Looking ahead of course. I challenge anyone with the time to go back to similar forecasting threads as of mid to late October and see. If anyone were to find something to the contrary, I’ll be happy to note that year as an exception. Maybe they’ll be found. But until that is done, I’m going to remain skeptical. Again, I’m not talking about a particular person but rather the general discussion/consensus. No point in going through 2023-4 as that clearly had tons of optimism to not at all be a lost cause for the bulk of the E US mild/low in wintry including by me. Even super-strong El Niño winters are usually assumed to have good potential for at least normal temps in the SE as well as a shot at a big winter storm. When I say “lost cause”, I mean both well above normal temps and well BN wintry precip in most of the E US including SE US/E Midwest. I think that will be hard to find as of this early. How can it ever already be a lost cause with the uncertainties that pretty much always exist?

Is it ever clearly a lost cause as of late Oct? I can’t remember a single late Oct when the winter was already determined to be a lost cause at this BB and any others. I don’t mean by any particular individual but rather based on the general consensus/discussion.

We will see about whether 300 is reached in the coming days as that is pretty rarely reached. If it were to exceed 290 on any day, it would be the highest in >20 years (not the hardest thing to do considering the prior weak cycle). We could easily top out today as nobody knows. It is high enough as it is! *Edited due to poor wording.

That was referring to yesterday’s SSN, which turned out to be the highest for any day since August 12th! So far today, it is even a good bit higher than that!

7 of 30 (23%) of the 18Z GEFS members landfall in the CONUS within Nov 6-10 from something forming in 5-7 days, either the lemon mentioned above (5) or something near PR (2). *Edit: The 0Z had 5 while the 6Z ended up with 7, with most of these from the current lemon.

Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Southwestern Caribbean Sea:A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of next week while it meanders or drifts northeastward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Berg

2019-20 # of days: 58 +EPO, 25 neutral EPO, 8 -EPO; avg daily EPO +80 2020-1: 47 +EPO, 32 neutral, 11 -EPO; avg daily EPO +60 So concurs with stronger +EPO in 2019-20 vs 2020-1 although 2020-1 still pretty +EPO dominant

KATL record high of 87! SAV tied record of 87. But these 87s feel great compared to typical 87 in summer with RH only low 30s thanks to dryness. So go out and enjoy.

That’s the hour 6 map of the “12Z run”. So, that’s why it says 18Z. The “18Z run” doesn’t start coming out til 5:30PM EDT.

Euro Weeklies back to very active for Nov 4-10 with activity quite possible subsequent week as well. Nov 4-10 has jumped back up to 3.8 x climo (8-8.5 ACE) vs yesterday’s 2.1 (4-4.5 ACE): It not only is back to very active but also the shaded areas are back to including S FL and now even C FL. This is the highest risk shown for that week by any Weeklies run for FL, Bahamas, and W 1/2 of Cuba:

I just figured out that the 2nd one in S FL on Nov 5th is TS Mitch in 1998. However, Election Day that year was Nov 3rd, when Mitch was in the Bay of Capeche:

Today as expected was the 2nd day in a row setting a new record high Oct. AO. It was 4.873. The old Oct record high was set yesterday at 4.578. Before 2024, the Oct. record was only 3.754. The 4.873 also sets a new record high for met. autumn. The old record was 4.578 set yesterday.

Thanks for posting this. I need to clarify my earlier post about the lack of a TS+ hitting or near the lower 48 on Election Day. I meant to say during Presidential election years as I was only checking those. My bad for leaving that off. Weather Tiger is showing the Yankee H hitting S FL overnight 11/4-5 and then just offshore in the Gulf at 7AM on Election Day in 1935. I didn’t include that because it wasn’t a Pres election year. But it definitely counts for Election Day in general. I see they have a 2nd one (a TS) in S FL on Nov 5th, but I’ve yet to figure out the year. So, I don’t know when Election Day was that year. **Edit on 10/24: I just figured out that the 2nd one in S FL on Nov 5th is TS Mitch in 1998. However, Election Day that year was Nov 3rd, when Mitch was in the Bay of Capeche:

All four seasonal models: Euro, CFS, CANSIPS, and NMME (which overlaps since includes CFS and CDN model(s)) are drier than normal for Nov-Dec. For Jan-Mar, CANSIPS and NMME continue dry but it’s overall more of a mixed bag on Euro/CFS. Dry during La Niña Nov-Mar is common, especially SE half of SE. I’m loving the dry for outdoor activities, especially after the very wet mid to late summer, which included for me garage flooding 11” from Debbie.

Maybe but fwiw good news is that new Euro Weeklies is much less active, especially in vicinity of W Cuba/S FL/Bahamas/Bermuda, than prior runs for 11/4-10: New run: 2 x climo (ACE of ~4.5)(Peak run was 5 days ago’s 4 x climo (ACE of ~9) Prior run: 2.9 x climo (ACE of ~6.5) it