GaWx

Update on OISST: Keeping in mind that ERSST averaged 0.08 warmer than OISST the previous 5 months, I had said OISST likely needed to average under +1.80 Jan 7-31 to prevent a super ONI peak. Jan 7-13 OISST has averaged +1.93. That means that Jan 14-31 would likely need to average +1.75 or lower. With it at +1.93 yesterday, that is doable but the chance is low meaning the chance for a +2.00+ ONI peak (unrounded) remains high as of now. The chance for a rounded +2.0 (i.e., what goes into the ONI table) is, of course, even higher as that likely requires that Jan 14-31 OISST average only +1.62+.

So, 0Z GEFS went from this on 1/12: 0% chance of reversal in January To this on 1/13: >60% chance of reversal 1/16-17, which is by far biggest jump and highest I’ve seen it this winter

It may very well based on the extended models, non-east based El Niño climo, and the MJO. If not, don’t give up on Magnificent March. One year Amazing April even did it! Plus there are the couple of opportunities in the middle of Jumping January next week for at least something modest. It is still very early and Feb is looking promising. Even Eric Webb is excited about Feb.

In addition to the very cold upcoming 10 days, the EPS/GEFS implies another Arctic high may drop down near the end of Jan and provide cold in very early Feb. This image is from the new Weeklies for 1/29-2/5. Then it turns normal followed by more cold, especially 2/19-26. Also, every week of the latest 12 run averaged CFS is cold through late Feb with a hint of a Miller A on both in mid Feb. So, opportunities will likely be there after next week’s opportunities for wintry precip.

And now today’s non-Euro update says a reversal is likely 1/15-6 (implications for Feb? though technically may not be SSW) with a strong majority of members below 0 as the big change was the GEFS joining the others as 17 of 23 of them go <0 vs none yesterday:

-For RDU for the 31 El Niños that were moderate or stronger, keep in mind for snowfall that only 29% (2.2”) fell on avg through 1/20 with 5.4” 1/21+. -Regarding the 15 (one every other winter) 6”+ storms, median date not til Feb 10-11 -More 6”+ events in Mar (4) than Feb (3) or Jan (3) -Peak 10 day frequency for 6”+ 2/21-3/2 (4)

The snow is one thing but this is miserable cold. I enjoy cold a lot (I enjoy walking in it) and always root for a cold winter as that’s exciting, but I mean by SE standards. The Sun-Mon highs in the teens, especially with wind/no sun, and lows of 5-6 are overdoing it a bit for my taste. I don’t know that I’d walk in that though walking in snow, something I haven’t had many opportunities to do, would be fun and might still tempt me. I can’t even imagine going out in the Chicago cold coming then!

Today’s 0Z models update shows a significantly increased chance for a strat wind reversal Jan 15-16 with 12Z 1/16 mins of GEPS at -1, FNMOC at -3, GEOS at 0, GFS at +1, and GEFS at +2.5. Well over half of the non-GEFS ensemble members reverse Jan 15-16 with most of those getting down to -1 to -5 and the lowest getting down to -6. If the reversal actually occurs, I don’t know thar it would actually be called a major SSW due to the lack of warming accompanying it (though fairly modest warming follows it):

Regarding the overall pattern: Latest GEFS MJO forecast is not what most would expect during a cold/wintry SE US period, strong in phases 4 and 5. Actually, the opposite wx tends to occur with this MJO. This illustrates well that it is just one factor and tells us only what often happens rather than anything even close to what always happens.

That would be the first wintry precip down here (looks like sleet in this run) in 6 years. Going 6+ years between wintry precip events this far SE, even if minor, is nothing unusual (and thus not something to bet on) though the last one was anything but minor.

And potentially the second winter in a row with coldest of winter for many when the MJO is strong in the MC.

Models continue to indicate a cold pattern despite the MJO moving through strong phases 4 & 5. Similar to Christmas of 2022. MJO overruled by other factors. MJO only determines what often happens, which is far from what always happens.

1. The ND MEI came in at +1.1. That’s quite a comeback from the mere +0.4 of SO. Actually, this 0.7 rise is the largest on record (back to 1979). I think this bodes well for Feb potential: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ 2. The 0Z GFS looks awfully close to a major SSW on 1/17.

With all of the snow predicted, the GFS, Euro, and CMC are suggesting Chicago may have a high below 0F early next week. Though the model assumptions have a tendency to bring down temperatures too much over fresh, generous snowcover, I wouldn’t rule out a high below 0 there with all of the snow predicted. The NWS currently isn’t yet buying it, however. About 15% or ~1 in 7 of their Jans have a high that cold. That’s 22 of them since 1873. The El Niño (along with their strength) Jans with one (10 of them out of ~50 (~20%) El Niño Jans) were: 1888 (weak), 1897 (strong), 1912 (moderate), 1924 (moderate), 1940 (moderate), 1942 (moderate), 1966 (strong), 1977 (weak), 1988 (strong earlier at its peak), and 2019 (weak). 2023 would be at/near strongest per ONI (though not per RONI, which may be the key) with a subzero high there if it were to occur.

Latest GLAAM forecast from CFS says El Niño like pattern returns late Jan til at least mid Feb:

Latest GLAAM forecast from CFS says El Niño like pattern returns late Jan til at least mid Feb:

I was also at Peachnet. So, were several others that are regulars here and were also at Eastern. I remember lookout, highway#, and NE GA, among others. Meanwhile, the current storm means business!

We get it. That storm is likely not going to give you what you want. But the winter/early spring in WNC is likely not hanging on it. There’s still a very long way to go, especially with it being a strong Nino.

When there’s a +1.0 or higher ONI peak in fall/winter going back to late 1800s, Raleigh has had only 29% of their snow on average through Jan 20th. More details below: -31 winters since 1888-9 -Nov avg: 0.2” -Dec avg: 0.9” -Jan 1-20 avg: 1.1” -Jan 21-31 avg: 0.9” -Feb avg: 2.4” -Mar avg: 1.7” -Apr avg: 0.4” -So, Nov-Jan 20 avg: 2.2” -So, Jan 21-Apr avg: 5.4” -So, on average only 29% of SN falls at RDU through Jan 20th & 71% Jan 21st+ -Thus, a very long way to go. -Regarding 6”+ storms for these 31 periods at RDU, median date not til Feb 10-11 -There have been more 6”+ events during these 31 there in Mar (4) than either Feb (3) or Jan (3)!

No, it is the opposite. The daily is still high end strong. That’s a good bit stronger than the average for being almost in mid January. My stats don’t even consider whether or not El Niño weakens quickly.

For RDU El Niños that were moderate or stronger: snowfall: -31 winters since 1888-9 -Nov avg SN: 0.2” -Dec avg SN: 0.9” -Jan 1-20 avg SN: 1.1” -Jan 21-31 avg SN: 0.9” -Feb avg SN: 2.4” -Mar avg SN: 1.7” -Apr avg SN: 0.4” -Nov-Jan 20 avg SN: 2.2” -Jan 21-Apr avg SN: 5.4” -So, only 29% of SN through Jan 20th & 71% Jan 21st+ -Thus, a very long way to go. -Regarding 6”+ storms, median date not til Feb 10-11 -More 6”+ events in Mar than Feb or Jan!

I was a bit slow today lol. Though 0Z GFS just missed it with a +4, it actually had a reversal days 15-16 instead. It looks like the 12Z GEPS is probably close to 0. The 0Z was at -1. Going to be interesting next few days following this. Could be implications for Feb, which already tends to have good climo in El Niño. But if reverses, it doesn’t look to be a strong reversal but probably a rather weak one. Regardless, I’d love to see it. Any reversal is significant and would be a surprise vs recent EPS runs.

Check today’s 0Z EPS out for Jan 17th! Are we going to sneak in an unexpected major SSW in 9 days? The mean has sunk to just +1 m/s (only the 12/25 and 12/26 runs lower and those were for early Jan) with probably 1/3 or so of the members below 0: Compare to yesterday, when mean dipped only to +5: For 1/17 on 0Z runs, GEPS and GEOS were at -1 while the GFS and FNMOC were at +4 and GEFS was at +8.

It is still very early. A significant majority of major SE El Niño snowstorms have occurred after mid January. Even in a snowy El Niño winter, often there’s only one widespread major storm in the SE. So, we have plenty of time for that storm to happen.

Fwiw from the average of the last 48 CFS runs, a cool mid-Feb with a good portion of the E US 1-3 BN 2/11-18, which is during peak snow climo: