GaWx

Here’s a new paper with a hypothesis that the sudden strong warming surge that appeared last year was caused by the large amount of water vapor reaching well up into the strat. from Hunga Tonga: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/07/09/hunga-tonga-volcano-impact-on-record-warming/ He says that this amount of water vapor increase that high up into the strat by a volcanic eruption was likely a 1000+ year event due to just the right combo of a submarine eruption located near that amount below sea level (150m down) and of this magnitude (VEI of 5+). He said, “We know that strong volcanic eruptions, capable of reaching the stratosphere, can have a very strong effect on the climate for a few years, and that this effect can be delayed by more than a year.” A key to possibly buying into the author’s hypothesis is to accept his reasoning for why it took over a year for the NH to warm from it. From his figure 13: Note that it took til very late 2022/early 2023 for the sudden significant increase in water vapor between 25 and 40 km up at 45N lat. “Because the Tonga eruption is unprecedented, there is much about its effects that we do not understand. But we do know that the planetary greenhouse effect is very sensitive to changes in stratospheric water vapor because, unlike the troposphere, the stratosphere is very dry and far from greenhouse saturation.” “As a group of scientists showed in 2010, the effect of changes in stratospheric water vapor is so important that the warming between 2000 and 2009 was reduced by 25% because it decreased by 10%. And after the Tonga eruption, it increased by 10% because of the 150 million tons of water released into the stratosphere, so we could have experienced much of the warming of an entire decade in a single year.” Thoughts from anyone? I saw many comments from @bdgwxin the comments section. There is some really good discussion in there, including with the author.

I’ve done it but not recently.

In a very general sense (with wide variations depending on the specific atmospheric setup) a tropical cyclone (TC) in the MDR will tend to travel to the right of a tropical disturbance that doesn’t become a TC. So, slowing development near the CV Islands tends to mean a further left/lower latitude track. Lower latitude in the MDR means lowered chance of a safe recurve vs if had been positioned at a higher lat. as a result of becoming a TC further east. Same idea for weaker TC (lower latitude/lower chance for safe recurve) vs stronger TC (higher latitude/higher chance for safe recurve).

A pop up here lead to some close-by CTG lightning strikes, including one which seemed like it may have been right on my property and lead to the power blinking. Rainfall light so far/ongoing.

I’d love to get a 4” event as 3-4” tend to be ~once a generation event down here. I haven’t even had a T of wintry precip since Jan of 2018, which is the longest wintry precip drought on record. This area had 3-4” (or the liquid equiv (LE) in a mixed bag of wintry precip) in 12/1989, 2/1973, 2/1968, and 2/1934. The heaviest, which were from LE of 0.75”-1.25”+, included significant IP and/or ZR and occurred in 1/2018, 1/1922, and 2/1914. 1/1922 and 2/1914 had severe ZR. So, since 1900, this area has gotten the LE of 3-4”+ storms seven times or once every 18 years. The LE of 1”+ of snow has occurred ~16-20 times since 1900 or once every ~7 years. So, even just 1” is a pretty big deal down here.

I haven't seen him mention 2014-5 in recent weeks. But prior to that when he was showing random Weather Bell versions of CFS for next winter, he was referring to 2014-5 among other winters because a good number of the Weather Bell CFS runs were literally showing a 2014-5 like solid +PDO due to a combo of a 1000 mile wide 4000 mile long solid area of BN SST anomalies from E of Japan to just N of Hawaii along with the warmest anomalies in practically the entire Pacific just off of Western North America. But the odd thing is that the Trop Tidbits versions, which I trust way more, never showed anything of the sort as they showed a continued strong -PDO. There appear to be problems with the WxBell algos related to their CFS maps. I don't think JB even realizes it as I doubt he looks at TT maps. I have posted about this several times.

1. JMA/Euro/BoM did pretty well with this July of 07 prediction. They (especially BoM) were actually too cool in JAS (BoM before last year actually didn’t have a warm bias) but were near perfect for ASO/SON. But instead of more cooling like actually occurred, they then started warming. Like I’ve mentioned before, the JMA is one I pay extra attention to due to overall pretty good results along with no strong bias. This was one of the better years for the Euro for La Niña but it had company. UKMET was way down in Lala land with its -2.4. MeteoFrance was its typical way too warm self with a mere -0.1. CFS was too cool in JAS, perfect in ASO, and then warmed way too soon. Kind of similar to JMA/Euro/BoM.

http://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1811085088320278564? A 604 dm peaking 500 mb Bermuda high is progged on all of the models for tomorrow evening. This not only is one of the strongest Bermuda highs at 500 mb on record based on records back to 1950. It is THE strongest on record! The record strongest is 600 dm. Bermuda itself is progged to peak at 601-2, which would beat its record of 600 dm. It’s amazing what the warmest oceans on record are causing. The strongest on record for the entire Atlantic is 603 (just offshore Casablanca, Morocco). So, this looks to be the strongest on record for the entire Atlantic! The strongest on record for entire globe is 605.6 in the NPAC S of the Aleutians.

As already posted, the most recent Euro autumn ONI warmed ~0.2 (from -0.3 to -0.1) while the BoM cooled ~0.3 (from +0.1 to -0.2). The UKMET cooled ~0.1 from ~-0.9 to ~-1.0. So, those three averaged ~0.1 cooler. Just as a reminder, the UKMET did great last year (about the best) But the new JMA (which also did well last year) and MeteoFrance runs cooled substantially JMA by ~0.3 and France by ~0.4: 1. JMA June run: SON ~-0.5 July run: SON ~-0.8 2. MeteoFrance: June run: SON ~+0.1 July run: SON ~-0.4 Summary of latest SON ONI forecasts (subtract ~0.5 to estimate RONI): Euro: warmed 0.2 to ~-0.1 (has a longterm warm bias/slightly too warm last year but warm bias stronger when non-Nino) BoM: cooled 0.3 to ~-0.2 (huge warm bias last year) MeteoFrance: cooled 0.5 to ~-0.4 (strong warm bias) JMA: cooled 0.3 to ~-0.8 (no known significant bias/did well last year) UKMET: cooled 0.1 to ~-1.0 (did best last year/no known significant bias) CFS: warmed 0.1 to ~-1.1 (overall limited accuracy; I think it has cool bias) So, with the significantly cooler JMA/MeteoFrance, I’m thinking the chances for a solid weak La Niña per ONI are increasing again (vs cold neutral). This also means the chances for a moderate La Niña per RONI are increasing again (vs weak).

Indeed: check out both the E US and the SW US on this map: over 75 locations in US with hottest summer 6/1 through present with probably about that many second hottest:

LV was 117 at 3PM PDT. They’re going to be very close to 119-120 again. What an amazing heatwave! Edit: Looks like 118 for the high. That makes 3 days hotter than the record high of 117 prior to 2024!

No, it is one winter after each of these since it is the winter following a high ACE season.

Good point. Regarding the bolded I don't know if this is related to a classic UHI effect. The hotter sunny summer afternoons are possibly due to surrounding gravel/concrete/building per Brad P. and/or the construction of a new runway per marsman's posts. Would these be classic UHI? I also wonder if the recent flash drought was affecting RDU more than FAY and other areas since drought, alone, typically results in hotter summer afternoons due to drier ground but not warmer lows.

That’s why I said this: *Caution advised due to small sample size as there’s possibility this was due to randomness*

La Niña after ACE 200+: 5 winters E US -1893-4: Dec and Jan NN; Feb BN NE, NN SE -1933-4: Dec BN NE, AN SE; Jan NN; Feb BN -1995-6: Dec, Jan, Feb BN -2005-6: Dec BN; Jan AN; Feb NN NE, BN SE -2017-8: Dec BN NE, NN SE; Jan BN; Feb AN By region: 1) NE: Dec BN 4 of 5; NN 1 of 5; AN 0 of 5 Jan BN 2 of 5; NN 2 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Feb BN 3 of 5; NN 1 of 5; AN 1 of 5 2) SE: Dec BN 2 of 5; NN 2 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Jan BN 2 of 5; NN 2 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Feb BN 3 of 5; NN 1 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Summary of results for these 5 winters NE: BN strongly prevailed in Dec and moderately prevailed in Feb; Jan all over map SE: BN moderately prevailed in Feb; DJ all over map *Caution advised due to small sample size as there’s possibility this was due to randomness. This is not at all a forecast for 2024-5 or any other Nina winter following 200+ ACE.*

2005 and 2020 both had 21 NS after July. 2024 is at 3 now. Even IF July had no more storms, having 21 more would make 24. Of course there could easily be one or more NS this month as 3 weeks is a near eternity. To illustrate better, here was a TWO from June 24th, which suggested no more NS in June vs the two that actually occurred: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch The first TWO even mentioning the AEW that lead to Beryl wasn’t til the one from 8 PM on June 25th and even that was only at 20% over the subsequent 7 days: A tropical wave centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend and into early next week while it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

I didn’t bring this up on my own. I earlier saw others (here and elsewhere) mentioning this, including a pro-met. This tweet from Brad Panovich says there’s a warm bias though much more during daytime than night: https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1809595420802261228?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet The problem appears to not be with the sensor for that would mean just as much too hot at night, too, along with when it is cloudy, windy, etc. Rather, it appears per Brad to be due to the surroundings: “This is not an ideal siting situation for KRDU. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's way too much gravel and concrete and a building too close to the ASOS. Compare KRDU versus KCLT ASOS, which is surrounded by vegetation and no buildings” From here: https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1809626846633320508?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1809626846633320508|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url= So, it appears Brad has made a case that should perhaps be considered. I don’t think this is intentional (conspiracy). Why would it be? But that doesn’t mean there isn’t an issue to consider that perhaps needs to be resolved. Being in GA, I would appreciate any objective fact based evidence one way or the other from the RDU area crowd. TIA!

CSU's updated analog seasons: 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020 Year/ASO ONI (using Eric Webb 1st 3 and NOAA RONI for 1995+): -1886/-0.8: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H, all in Gulf (one landfall barely missed as hit far NE MX that still lead to H winds S TX); 3 were in June! -1926/0.0: 3 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing S FL that still lead to H winds S FL); bad year FL/Gulf; 4th highest ACE -1933/-1.1: 4 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC/VA); bad year SE FL, S TX, NC/VA; highest ACE -1995/-0.7: 2 CONUS landfalling storms as H in FL; 5th highest ACE -2005/0.0: 5 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC); bad year Gulf/SFL; 2nd highest ACE -2010/-1.6: 0 CONUS landfalling storms as H -2020/-1.2: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H; bad year W/C Gulf So, the avg # of landfalling storms on the CONUS as a H for these 7 years was a very ominous 4. Clearly, the best hope for CONUS when considering these analogs for a tame rest of season is for something similar to 2010 with its 0 H landfalls and only 2 TS hits, one minimal. However, note that ASO RONI was way down at -1.6, the lowest ASO ONI/RONI on record. Very low ASO (mod to strong Nina) on avg have not been as bad for CONUS H hits as weaker Ninas. With the most likely ASO RONI having risen to weak to low end moderate Nina territory, it is unlikely as of now that Nina will be that strong. Also, Beryl hitting TX probably isn't a good sign. Thus, the case for 2010-like tracks for the rest of 2024 is kind of weak as of now though I'll still hope.

RDU at 97 was hottest major station in the state Monday by 2F:MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR NC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC 815 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 .BR RDU 0708 ES DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ : : HIGH PAST 18 HOURS / LOW PAST 24 HOURS /PCPN LAST 24 HOURS : : MAX MIN 24-HR :ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN : AVL :ASHEVILLE : 88 / 70 / 0.01 BUY :BURLINGTON : 91 / 72 / T CLT :CHARLOTTE : 92 / 75 / 0.51 ECG :ELIZABETH CITY : 90 / 74 / 0.00 EWN :NEW BERN : 91 / 74 / 0.99 FAY :FAYETTEVILLE : 94 / 75 / 0.00 GSO :GREENSBORO : 91 / 73 / T HSE :CAPE HATTERAS : 89 / 78 / 0.00 ILM :WILMINGTON : 91 / 76 / 0.07 INT :WINSTON-SALEM : 92 / 75 / T LBT :LUMBERTON : 95 / 75 / 0.00 MEB :LAURINBURG-MAXTON : 91 / 75 / 0.00 MRH :BEAUFORT : 88 / 81 / 0.00 RDU :RALEIGH-DURHAM : 97 / 75 / 0.00 RWI :ROCKY MT-WILSON : 95 / 74 / 0.00

It isn’t included in these but the ICON was best of the more respected globals with the W GOM landfall in C TX. This goes back to the 12Z 6/30 run into Galveston! It then had runs up into LA or near the TX/LA border as late as the 6Z on 7/3, which weren’t good. However, starting on 12Z 7/3 (when ICON hit C TX while GFS, Euro, CMC, and UKMET were into NE MX) onward ICON was always between Galveston and Corpus. So, major kudos! CMC wasn’t consistently TX til 0Z of 7/6. UKMET wasn’t til 12Z of 7/5. Euro/GFS wasn’t til 0Z of 7/5. (ICON also did well with Ian for FL and SC landfalls (2nd best to UKMET)). JMA gets a well deserved honorable mention as it was similar to the ICON with its 12Z 6/30 run and had several more runs (12Z runs on 6/2, 3, 4) into Galveston followed by 6/5-6 at CC. Actual landfall wasn’t up at upper TX coast but still the 6/30 and 7/2-4 JMA runs into Galveston were much closer to actual landfall than GFS/Euro/UKMET then. Only the ICON was overall about as close. So, my ratings of globals for W GOM portion of track: Best: ICON and JMA Next best but not close: GFS/Euro Further back: UKMET Worst: CMC

I remember many of us salivating about this and other H5 maps for 23-4. (By the way, I’m hoping we’ll see maps like this posted in the 25-6 thread.) I mean it had El Niño, Aleutian low, strong +PNA, -NAO, and -AO. It had the pentafecta of wx indices for great E US winter potential! I was even thinking I’d have a decent chance for a wintry precip event way down here, which would have been the 1st in 6 years. Well, El Niño was correct and we had a modest +PNA. But the Aleutian low and -NAO were miserable fails. And the AO averaged neutral, which was a moderate fail. The SE still averaged only slightly warmer than normal. So, I can’t complain too much. This Euro 24-5 map has La Niña, Aleutian high, -PNA, +NAO, and +AO. Exact opposites. All the things that most E US cold/snowy winter lovers don’t want.

Forecasted Jan 2025 H5 height anomalies from July Euro: most of US 2.4-3.5 dm above climo

Here’s something NOT different as of 3PM: RDU’s 94 is the warmest in the entire state. What a shocker:NORTH CAROLINA WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 300 PM EDT MON JUL 08 2024 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY. NCZ001-053-055-056-065-067-082000- WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS ASHEVILLE MOSUNNY 87 71 58 S9 30.11F JEFFERSON PTSUNNY 79 68 69 CALM 30.19F MORGANTON MOSUNNY 89 74 60 CALM 30.08F HX 97 HICKORY NOT AVBL WILKESBORO MOSUNNY 88 68 51 CALM 30.11F RUTHERFORDTON PTSUNNY 86 72 62 CALM 30.08F MOUNT AIRY NOT AVBL BOONE MOSUNNY 82 70 67 SE7 30.01F NCZ021-022-025-041-071-084-088-082000- CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CHARLOTTE PTSUNNY 87 71 58 VRB3 30.04F GREENSBORO PTSUNNY 89 73 59 VRB3 30.04F HX 97 WINSTON-SALEM MOSUNNY 90 72 55 VRB3 30.06F HX 97 RALEIGH-DURHAM PTSUNNY 94 N/A N/A NW3 30.04F FORT LIBERTY MOSUNNY 93 72 49 E7 30.00F HX 100 FAYETTEVILLE MOSUNNY 92 72 51 SE3 30.01F HX 99 BURLINGTON MOSUNNY 88 72 58 CALM 30.03F ROXBORO MOSUNNY 86 72 62 SW6 30.06F HENDERSON NOT AVBL LOUISBURG MOSUNNY 90 73 58 S6 30.05F HX 98 LAURINBURG CLOUDY 85 72 65 S12 30.03F NCZ011-015-027-028-043-044-047-080-103-082000- NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS ROCKY MT-WILSO MOSUNNY 93 65 39 SW8 30.02F HX 95 GREENVILLE PTSUNNY 91 73 55 SW5 30.01F HX 100 ELIZABETH CITY PTSUNNY 88 75 65 E7 30.02F HX 97 MANTEO MOSUNNY 89 73 60 N9 30.04F HX 97 CAPE HATTERAS MOSUNNY 88 79 74 SW7 30.04F HX 103 NCZ078-087-090-091-093-098-101-082000- SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS LUMBERTON MOSUNNY 93 72 50 W15 30.01F HX 101 GOLDSBORO PTSUNNY 92 69 46 W3 29.99F HX 97 KINSTON MOSUNNY 90 75 62 SW7 30.03F HX 100 KENANSVILLE PTSUNNY 88 77 70 CALM 30.03F HX 100 NEW BERN PTSUNNY 85 76 74 N5 30.04F CHERRY POINT PTSUNNY 88 75 65 SW10G20 30.04F HX 97 BEAUFORT MOSUNNY 88 76 67 SW14 30.04F HX 99 JACKSONVILLE PTSUNNY 90 75 61 SW9 30.02F HX 100 WILMINGTON PTSUNNY 87 76 69 CALM 30.03F HX 97

My area is about to get blasted it appears. Very heavy rains incoming from thunderstorms lined up near the coast. We also had some rain earlier this afternoon. Edit: I got ~~1.25”

New BoM forecast for ASO ONI: a bit cooler New run: -0.2 Old run: 0.0