Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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I don't wish this forecast on anyone. We could get 3'' or we could get 9''. The biggest dilemma is trying to nail down PL vs ZR. That is where i'm conflicted. Gun to head I think your area sees 3-6" followed by a prolonged period of PL and then finishing it with a ZR topper.
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The best part about this is @Disc literally could've been the one that created the write up hahahaha
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It's low level superiority for being able to handle cad well ranks toward the bottom to my knowledge/recollection. It doesn't have the same topographical nuances built into it like the NAM or even the GGEM does. Met can correct me if i'm wrong of course but it tends to smooth things out more so than some of the other computer models.
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@Blacksburg Coachnight and day difference there between GFS and EURO. Those are FRAM averages too which is even more significant when we're talking about accrual/accretion.
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I’m really beginning to wonder though if the Euro is way overdoing it on the ZR potential? Maybe I end up being wrong but I feel a sleet fest inbound.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
Buddy1987 replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
You ain’t kidding!! I went to Walmart last night and it was an absolute war zone in there. You’d think the end of the world was happening. -
Pretty wild the warm nose makes it to your neck of the woods. From what I remember you’re northernmost portion of the forum.
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3-5” sleet bomb for the Triad this run. Those are impressive totals. ninja’d by thrasher haha
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Insane ice storm verbatim on 0z gfs for NE GA.
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Surface isn’t overly horrible for sleet/snow in the common areas. I guess one thing we may have locked down for sure is cad is going to be impressive amongst all guidance. GFS 1043 on the Canadian/NY border.
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Yup.. at 60 there were already some significant changes. By 72 heights are screaming. You could also see Baja low starting to tilt neutrally here. I honestly haven’t even looked at surface yet because upper levels don’t lie.
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Can’t say I love what I see thus far thru 48. Don’t like the fact there is interaction starting to be had. Western ridge is def more stout.
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Western ridge looking to get diggy at 42. Pretty noticeable there to start things.
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All this talk up of the dropsondes and really nothing looks different at 24 L.O.L.
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I’m on pivotal and ICON doesn’t even have an option for ice accretion qpf like gfs and GGEM do.
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RGEM downright impressive with cad. In a 12+ hr period the HP crawls from Buffalo to Plattsburgh and keeps a 1042. Unreal cold air anchored in place bare minimum.
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0z RGEM is downright impressive with HP. Basically barely moves from Buffalo to Plattsburgh NY in a 12 hour period. Just anchored.
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I’m more pointing toward JI that was not directed at you. You’ve always done me right. Also helps I got Chill on my side down here now. It’s like drafting Jordan out of UNC equivalency. In all seriousness tho, we have actually grown the crew exponentially down this way. Ive seen a bunch of peeps start posting down this way.
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Shit.. I’m kinda hurt by this.. I’ve literally been around since the Eastern US Weather days and have posted plenty of times in here, mainly in the winter months. People acting like I’m posting from Jackson Hole I call it the dead zone down here because we are inbetween the mid Atlantic and southeast forum crews.
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Down my way big guy haha!
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End of the run NAM trying to get LP going around Wilmington/Hatteras. Need that to lock in the backside cold air and rid of the torch going on upstairs.
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Absolute firehose just pumping in. Already at 1.07” by 84 hr mark with more to come. Unfortunately NAM wrecks us in the upper levels.
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Precip seems to have “smoothed” out from 18z. Mix line at VA/NC border. Sleet breaking out down the spine of the apps into NE GA.
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Would be really nice to know if the NAM is acting its crazy old self or if it actually did have the data placed in for 0z.
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Hahahaha I LOVE this post. To see some of the seasoned guys in the MA crew be conflicted let’s you know how minute of a detail can be an otherworldly difference.
