Buddy1987

Do you put a lot of faith into GEFS and GEPS? I feel like it has weenie crushed all winter long. There were a couple really good "false" events it showed and was darn consistent and then got destroyed by the Euro. I feel like at this point it can either prove the Euro wrong for once this winter or the Euro is just that good. I guess time will tell.

I would never complain again hahahaha.

I saw you in here so I figured I'd make things easier on you hahahaha.

Not trying to be the debbie downer here but I think I'm ready to be reaped. I've tried all year to be positive but it seems like we all hope every 10 days out will be "that" storm to where it ends up being short sleeves and record highs. If I keep living in fantasy land before I know it I'm going to be needing to watch the tropics. This has been nothing short of disastrous. I want to hope that Bob, PSU and everyone else is right in pattern change sooner than later but we are running out of time and quickly. I'm not saying I'm getting my panties in a bunch bc next weekend doesn't look as promising but it's like every 10 days here the pattern has looked much better and then we go back to wtf is happening? I hope I'm proven wrong bc I truly love snow. Done ranting back to weather and tracking!

At least we can go with experience and know that the GFS has the tendency to drive low pressures into the highs and we all know how that normally plays out (gets forced a lot further south and east).

What would we need for energy to transfer once the storm runs into central TN southern IN if we can keep it that far south and west

After the debacle of the GFS being on its own island this winter season continuously showing snowy scenarios and winter weather I have a hard time buying into it. With that said however support from Euro and EPS makes me feel a whole lot better. Time will tell here in the next couple days.

Snowing in Roanoke. Nice to see flakes this early. Hopefully the precip shield will get a bump here by mid morning from the vort.

Congrats everyone who got clobbered up that way! I was consistently modeled around 6” and got about 1.5 with crust on top due to sleet primarily falling. On to the next one.

My neighbor even texted me and was wondering wtf was going on. It’s been when the waves of heavier echoes had come through. Very cool although yes thunder snow would’ve been much better.

Getting crazy amounts of thunder sleet down here last two hours or so in SW VA. Heard it at least 6 different times. Sounds like transformers blowing but there not lol.

I am def grateful regardless. I really do think the warm layer is super shallow so anything that dumps should have it switch over to snow at least for a little. Guess we’ll see here. Have fun up that way!

Ugh dreaded sleet pellets pinging off the window. Hoping since we are in a little lull rates will overcome that bs. Was dumping when the first band moved through.

It is absolutely ripping fatties under this developing 30-35 dbz band. Roads and pavement are caving almost instantly.

Starting to see some convective like elements now forming off to my southwest, ahead of the main shield of waa incoming. Most likely a burst of heavy snow or heavy sleet, but either way good to see the radar starting to light up here shortly once again.

I will say mid afternoon still does not allow it to stick down this way. Under moderate snow, 29.5 out and it refuses to stick to sidewalks, driveways and streets. Give it a couple hours and it’ll be a different story.

Coming down in sheets right now outside with that band coming through. Good sign with things to come!

RadarScope is def the way to go. Worth the money for sure

First flakes at the house. Very fine and small flakes at that. Can barely see the mountain over toward Blacksburg where @Disc is at. Should be picking up here shortly.

15z HRRR has some more intense banding signatures showing up at the end of the run at 18hrs in SW VA. I’m sure those will begin to form and pivot on up the forum.

Radar off to my southwest looks tasty. Will let you guys know how that performs. Virga will only be so long with returns showing up like that entering western VA. I’m thinking SE flow will def help some down this way with lift and moisture transport. Good luck up that way!

HP to the north is no joke funneling in these low dew points. 31/15 in Salem, VA.

Nam has mixing even over the mountains and foothills of NC at 21. Heavy snow into eastern KY as well. Precip on northern side lining up nicely. system has slowed down once again as well same time frame as noted above. Still around CHS at this point.

The old GFS looked like it finally had a clue and then suffered from some form of convective feedback issues at 36, whereas at 33 it had the low just south of MYR. It attempted some weird double barrel low type structure at that point. It’s attempting but right now imo is the worst model for this thing. It’s time for high res models but I figured I’d point that out anyway.

Yea you’re def right Poimen. RGEM is pretty amped up with the moisture influx and the intensity. Looks like sleet to zr with only northernmost zones of NC, mountains and then up into VA would remain snow with that look.