Buddy1987

IMO even more pronounced at 60. You can see the lines wedged down into GA bend further south/southwest.

To my eye 42 looks pretty good thus far at 5h. Energy is a little further south in the plains. I’m hoping it translates downstream as the run plays out. Confluence looks fairly unchanged.

That model is hot garbage. Worse than even the model Nogaps back in the day, wayyy worse

Icon looks like it has better wedging at 18z vs 12z around hr54

Big Bills fan. Love seeing MIA get their ass kicked I realize we’re not going to catch KC for best record AFC

If you think the GFS is right even you don’t flip down that way. You can put GGEM in that grouping as well. I’m talking about plain rain let me be specific. I think you may start and end freezing rain and have a significant amount at that.

I still think you’re gonna hang onto 0 850’s for awhile longer than what’s modeled. 1038 high or so will be no joke

@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment @griteater how are you guys feeling about northern NC mountains up to this are and south of I-64 in general? My goalpost was for 3 or more inches I’d be beyond belated. I think at least for my specific area I can achieve that before zr/pl kick in. Looks close to 1” liquid from my area and to the north/northeast.

Much colder! Don’t even need to look back to see I’m -4 out this way at 1pm when I was flirting with 0/-1. That’s a plus for others at that point too.

Ladies and gents track ain’t gonna get much better than this here. This will make everyone extremely happy for the most part.

I think Cape nailed it perfectly. We want to root for a more progressive system rather than allow it time to amp back over the plains and lower Mississippi otherwise the low track will not appease everyone.

Theme thus far with the 12z suite is to have confluence a little stronger. That IMO is an important takeaway. Icon and nam both show this. @75 Icon has low over or just to the southeast of Wilmington Mets are probably laughing at this model but 78 over Hatteras 81 pretty well off shore of Virginia Beach (ala reminds me of 0z GFS from last night) then the wheels fall off from there because the low becomes super jumpy and has some weird double barreled low structure south of Long Island to where I’m assuming some sort of convective feedback issues etc.

Sad that model represents the United States of America lollll

Most should know nam is normally over amped anyway so you take with grain of salt.

Most won’t like NAM’s evolution. Takes storm from Raleigh to just west of Richmond to a track about to traverse Delaware.

Cyclogenesis commences @63 s/se of CHS

Same trend looks to continue at 51 with a little better confluence

Awesome site thank you for that! So in this scenario I would be pleased. 1” of liquid and about 9.4” of snow if taken verbatim.

@WxUSAF @yoda @MN Transplant can you guys tell me what I’m missing down this way and why it’s not as aggressive? Do we get into a good deform band or does it never really materialize until you get north and east of here? I’m not meaning for imby question but I just want to understand the Synoptics a little bit better. I guess I’m just trying to figure out where the disconnect lies out my way and south of Staunton let’s say. Everything I’ve seen the 850’s never get above 0 and look to be -1/-2 all the way down the 81 corridor but the Euro and GFS aren’t as gung ho. I’m assuming we may miss the developing CCB but I also think the leaf on the nw side of things may end up looking better as simulated radars get in closer range. Does anyone have a concern of a dry slot since the decaying primary will be trying to push in toward us or will that be more of a concern for I77/west?

Or @MN Transplant for the win! Always bring good juju anyway. LETS GOOO!!!

I vote Yoda. Couple days back he really kicked off a nice run of model suites that set the stage.

Anyone willing to answer. Does a stronger low mean more flooding of the mid levels with warmer air above the surface or will this storm just be strictly dependent on the placement of the low and its eventual track?

Icon finally updated and it too is a mauling considering its warm tendencies. Also has a 1039 high parked up top. Strongest I’ve seen yet.

Must’ve packed it in like the Icon tonight. Went out to 48 and called it a day.

Boy I hope not. I want everyone to cash in here. We could all use it.