Buddy1987

Ok where’s the JMA?

GEFS mean with textbook track and HP anchored in ideal location. 1036 at 0z vs 1034 at 18z. Good trends tonight. Nice to see GFS finally having a clue.

Yea you’re right on the cusp. I may sneak by with enough latitude up this way. We shall see.

Wow!

Canadian has the HP in prime position at 102, whereas so far the icon and gfs are more east comparing 0z frames. Edit: Also has HP about 2mb stronger tonight which is always a good sign when you see all models trending that way.

I honestly think this trends colder as game time is about to commence most instances it tends to. Not sure if you’re a big fan of ZR or PL for down your way but after two years of bs pretty much let’s go!!

Perfect track from Pensacola to Savannah to east of Hatteras. Anyone north of I40 in these setups usually end up pretty happy in normal winter circumstances.

Great CAD next frame after Yoda’s reference. Looking like 12z CMC

Beat me to it. Good 3mb deeper. I like it so far! HP in prime position. More of a Miller A no?

Confluence looks slightly better at 72 on gfs but I don’t have the knowledge to know if that will have a direct influence in the later frames.

@BristowWx

Icon just looks wonky and wrong with a 1037 HP being bullied. Highly doubt that occurs. Also primary pushes into SE Indiana. Unlikely imo edit: referencing 2nd wave

I’m confusing the hell out of myself now it’s like I’m overthinking the posts. So less amplified wave round 1 makes a better chance for a big dog with wave 2? Holy dyslexia. Meanwhile 0z Icon looks to be coming in slightly more amped for wave 1

You’re gonna get smoked up there brother! This is your type of storm. Low traversing too close to me down here usually bodes well for you. I’ll gladly raise the white flag if it makes us both happy come Wednesday.

Yea I think that’s what PSU was alluding to when I asked him for gut opinion. It will allow the 2nd wave to amplify more with a stronger 50/50 in place.

Hahahaha appreciate the honesty. Just for the fact first storm creates a 50/50 and we have a good cold source of high pressure (1034-1036) for the Wednesday system, screams to me at the minimum a mixed bag. I naturally tend to view my area more so than DC because I don’t have marine influence or I’m not associated as closely to the low track as you all could possibly be. I could definitely see it going either way with good potential frontogenesis and lift up that way to where if it’s borderline it could be a wet heavy snow or to where unfortunately above 850 gets cooked by southerly flow and flips to a mess. Jury is still out so I guess you are right although when I see thermals on Canadian it gives me cause to be reasonably positive for a majority of us.

What does your gut tell you from experience that the expectation should be for the board come Wednesday if it was do or die?

Don’t cliff dive yet. GFS isn’t superior in CAD situations, although some of the pros have alluded to the fact that there could be strong southerly flow up above the cold dome.

Yea it just completely dislodges the high and has it haul a** east allowing the storm to be amped. First I’ve seen of that but hopefully it wouldn’t be a trend.

For me the biggest takeaway is we have a strengthening high pressure in a prime position to supply CAD. HP goes from 1031 to 1034. Even if it is ice ice baby anything frozen is a huge win. I will take moisture with the Canadian thermals and I obviously trust the Canadians thermals in these situations.

Gulf moisture looks primed this go around.

Very subtle changes thus far with 18z GFS at 5h. Have that feeling big run incoming.

Calling @Jebman Alert! Incoming nuclear assault!

Man got off from work early today after meeting and holy crap I missed like 9 pages lmfao! You need that primary as do I to an extent to die off just a tad quicker but regardless I’m so desperate I don’t care if I get 5” of sleet. The way the last couple of winters have been beggars cannot be choosers. Just happy to be tracking something significant and worthwhile.