Buddy1987

@BornAgain13 12z gfs looks more like para and doesn’t drive the low all the way up into WV but rather undercuts and delivers some very nice snows even down toward your way and more so up disc’s wxdude’s and my way. Edit: man really examining the backend of things as it gets cranking that ccb is gonna demolish someone. Verbatim I’d prolly flip to sheets of paper and 32.

At least it’s not pile driving it up into WV and undercutting even me to my south. That is something we should all want to see however other players naturally have to cooperate on the battlefield.

Nam looks “diggy” toward the end of its run when comparing to gfs at 90. I’m tempering my expectations as I’m sure most are. Right now threat slightly better for areas to my north and east but I’m far from out of it with para and Canadian looking better region wide.

Lmao! You’re talking about Kevin. He is such a clown but very funny to keep up with and read. I was in NW CT so about 90 or so min from you via Mass pike. Good to know!

Would you consider that to be a bias of the euro with s/w ejection with systems coming out of the southwest like we’ve seen in past storms?

When it’s euro against the world here I don’t buy it. Do I fully entrust in the gfs? Never. When it has support tho then more likely than not euro will come around. I don’t have access to it and rely on others here to post and don’t know what 5h is showing that would make that much of a difference with the overall Synoptics vs the gfs, Canadian, icon etc

At least for my direct area 6z gfs doesn’t get the primary as far north and east. Sounds like para would make a bunch of people happy.

That GFS clown map ain’t got nothing on the GEFS. That’s a damn beat down my area north but also much colder and snowier solutions intermingled within the suite to get more people in the game IMO.

@ILMRoss GEFS looks much more “serviceable” and overall would deliver for a lot more people in the forum.

See and that’s the crappy part. I feel like the red headed step child. I’m literally in an area where either I’m almost rubbing salt in the wound for you guys or then in no mans land when DC crew is off their rockers because of too much confluence and you guys are cashing in to the south of me. Maybe we should just make a southern VA/northern NC forum and call it a day lollll. And I def understand the sentiment you share. I’ve been posting since the Eastern US weather board days. Only problem is I got to be in CT for all those, as I relocated down here like I said back in 2012. Posters like Typhoon Tip and ORHWxman are amazing and very knowledgeable people up that way. Def appreciate your insight on things.

I do think Ukie has to trend north now at this point but man has that model had a mind of its own over the years.

To be honest guys some of our big doozies living here now since 2012 have been the way we get these primaries to get close and then swing directly underneath us so we get the dynamics of that low still plus the developing ccb from the secondary taking over. I’m not gonna get so invested to where I get let down because that has become more of a reality here than not last couple winters. With that said CMC is a mauling in my book for north of I-40 and looks much more realistic with the primary. Gonna be a battle next couple days. @BornAgain13 where you at?! CMC will make you happy for sure.

I def like your logics and reasonings behind this!

You really believe tho that HP, if taken at face value, won’t have the primary decay quicker or do you feel initially it is a little misplaced to the west and the solution could be plausible? Pretty stout at 1041-1043. We know GFS is notorious in pile driving the primaries up into WV.

A met can chime in and tell me I’m wrong. If you take the surface map at face value I suppose it is possible for the LP to undercut that high, as its positioning is a little to the west but generally speaking cold dense air is very hard to move or dislodge. 1028-1030HP yea maybe 1042HP another story in my book. Would be easier for me to score a coup up this way but would need some help for most of the forum overall. If I had to take a guess do or die I’d say at this stage primary would decay and die out sooner than what GFS depicts.

GFS notorious in plowing LP’s and moving stout high pressure out of the way. Although plausible unlikely in my opinion.

Looking like 0z gfs def wants to dig more with the s/w into Texas. Progression also faster and better moisture advection and return out to 108. Def looking like it will be amped. Lol driving rain storm for the entire forum as the storm cuts way to the west

GFS is Dr Yes this year, therefore I’m running and taking it based on performance over Euro last several months here.

Man what an absolute mauling on the 12z suite thus far! When do you guys think continuity kicks in by Monday? @CAPE @yoda @psuhoffman

Mauling so far your area north on CMC and GFS. Way too early unfortunately. Models swing so wildly these days there’s really no continuity IMO until at least Monday if I had to guess.

Def trying to keep my expectations tempered here. Good to see continuity from a model standpoint but like I alluded to the other day models have multiple s/w flying around and keying on the final wave now hopefully will be the right call and there will be enough spacing to allow the wave to strengthen.

Man a ton of volatility tho in the 18z gfs. Good grief! Multiple s/w within a couple days of each other.

Crazy looking back at this past Friday getting that 1.5” event. It was dumping here for a little bit. Beggars definitely can’t be choosers at this juncture. Pretty deflating to see Deep South getting snow in TX and LA

Idk man euro hasn’t been itself wrt mid to long range prospects thus far. I will take my chances on most of the globals at least showing something this far out. Just my opinion obviously but I have a really good feeling for this time period.

That band looks to mean business. I’m not sure it can make it this far north but then again I haven’t seen the surface wrt where LP is etc..