Buddy1987

DT is

@ILMRoss I see you are on. Have you really dissected anything or overly looked into what 40 north looks like for this one?

Looking like a general consensus at this stage that most major model guidance wants to bring in the WAA thump into western and central VA. I could def see you getting a couple inches but then mix before dry slot moves in.

Even up here we only got about 1/2-1” on the ground albeit it didn’t melt at all today and now it feels like the North Pole outside so nice to try and keep some around until Sunday.

Have you been tracking Euro and Ukie for your area? What are they showing? I’ve been so focused on mine I haven’t really looked beyond it. I think those models are in the cat bird seat with Canadian in portraying something very similar overall. I’ve also been on MA forum because there’s some really good meteorologists floating through there right now getting very good analysis.

Yet some people are saying the Euro is trending toward gfs and vice versa... @BornAgain13 my question is and I get we’re still 3 days out and you may want to play it conservative but almost every model I’ve seen or viewed has 9” or more of snow for ROA. Even the ensembles are at least 6-7” plus yet just as of this morning we had “snow showers” in our forecast”

Awesome! Really appreciate you taking the time to always answer questions here.

I saw H20 ask some pointed questions regarding what could go wrong but IMO that’s more so to my north and east. Almost every major model has us easily 6+” down this way. I actually had same question with what could alter things down this way, as the secondary is going to form too far to my north and east. Do I want the primary to get close or do I want it to stay in IL or IN before the dry slot works in to maximize snow potential here?

Hr 90 ground zero ROA to CHO and still doing work up into the main forum.

@clskinsfan @LP08 @leesburg 04 @CAPE @BristowWx I’m ready to go ahead and push my chips all in and close out my hand. I would be way too greedy otherwise to not do so down this way.

I agree as the run progressed past hr 90 the primary gets into a position similar to the GFS (Ohio). It’s a Miller B where we all would hope to cash in on front end thump as a big dry slot pushes through.

Hr 90 looking more Euroish with primary in central MO 1000mb confluence slightly better with bottom portion pushing through CT. 1036mb HP

12z ICON hr 78 1035 HP stronger closed primary 994 southern KS/OK border. Further north than 6z counterpart.

Yea Disc and I are same area basically when you see him post. We’re definitely southwestern most portion of the forum.

I will try to post pics of tomorrow’s event down here. Just had WWA issued for 2-4”. With this particular system it’s worth noting the models ended up trending toward the GFS solution. Something to keep in mind. Nam was bone dry and now has a decent slug of moisture coming through. GFS the snowiest.

120 hr 24 hr snowfall map still looks solid for 0z Ukie. Solid 5-10” deal to the naked eye

Wow!! @BIG FROSTY been awhile man. Glad to see you on here! Getting revved up for the “epic ness” that’s about to occur next several days.

Lmfao there’s a meaningful trend in the GFS tonight and we got JI saying 0-3 LOL

Yea the evolution of the entire system for the weekend is wonky on the GFS. Is it wrong? Not necessarily. Does it have tendencies and known biases? Absolutely. It’s the warmest of the models right now. Between Canadian and GFS, GFS is off by a good 5mb with the high pressure. So we’re talking a 1032 vs 1037 mb hp. Big time difference. Other factor to weigh is the GFS has a very strong vort like Euro middle of the country. Problem is GFS opens up and sends a strung out weak discombobulated mess eastward while the Euro continues to keep its strength. That would have big impacts downstream.

12z at 132 had 1006 slp over southern IN for reference. HP at 1038.

The GFS was hot garbage. Para looked ok for decent thump to dry slot. It’s pretty much most guidance against gfs so there’s that but then a lot of us are actually rooting for the gfs for Thursday’s system so who knows.

Para looks a bit colder. Heavy snow breaking out at 108 sw va and moving toward the dc crew.

That’s biggest takeaway for me thus far. GFS by far the warmest model out of all the guidance.

Primary at 120 further to the west northwest of 18z location. Difference of basically having it be in central KY vs southern/southeastern IN. Noticeable shift tho IMO.

Building off this the Icon is coming in even colder than 18z run. HP at 96 goes from 1035 to 1038. Big time cold press funneling down out of New England. @102 light snows breaking out over NC mountains. SLP over SW MO. 1037 HP. This looks to start the 0z runs off on the right foot.