Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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County cop deputy for Botetourt for 6. Got out in 2018. Here’s to some snow!
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44.8/24.3 currently. Missed forecast high by 3 degrees today. Could see the cloud/clear sky line about 10 miles off to my southwest. Thick canopy made a difference.
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Hey good to know man. You paid I’m assuming or volunteer?
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Boy it sure is nice to have you back around. I feel like sometimes a lot of us northwestern forum guys can’t relate to anyone. It’s like you’re in the central Bahamas and I’m in upstate NY lolllll
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@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment @BornAgain13 how do you guys feel about the trajectory of the precip shield on national radar? Does it fill in more as the storm gets going somewhat?
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Honestly idk anymore lol. Good to see reports of @oconeexman having pingers. Upstairs is cold.
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Yea I think people just feel burned recently and are naturally pessimistic by it. Runs look good for that area.
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I would say you will have 2-4” for sure on ground by tomorrow.
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18z 3k/12k another stone cold assassin. Been very steady for multiple runs now.
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I would say between now and 12 hours before precip start is when HRRR becomes more accurate if it ever does at any point and I think you know this but would begin to get more believable just being in range.
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Kinda obv the models are going to struggle mightily with middle to end of next week storm. CMC has a 1041 in a damn good spot yet it looks like frozen may line up even to my north northwest. High in that position there’s no way. Beyond this one looks like a headache of a storm to track waiting to happen. Regardless it’s lights out for somebody on the wintry side. That is a mega death band of precip just getting pumped from the gulf. Ice ice baby!
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Not gonna lie even up this way a little concerned. 43/21 and I would obv assume the dew would continue to moisten up. Have seen this play out before too where I go to bed wake up and it’s 36-37 outside with the grass covered. It’s gonna really have to come down.
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12z GFS def trending the right way for next week for mountains as of right now. @BornAgain13 and I verbatim would look to get some pretty serious ice accretion. There’s 1040-1041 not too far away from being in an optimal spot. If that keeps shifting southward along with the flow of 5h could be an entirely different outcome as what’s modeled currently. Needing to get through this first storm first.
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Canadian trended more consolidated and overall better with SLP and subsequent qpf. It’s been catching up for days tho lol.
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Good luck to you guys down there! I hope you have a hell of a surprise in store. Been far too long for you all.
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2nd frame you can really see the model trying to emphasize the banding potential. I can’t wait to see the radar early to mid evening off to our southwest!
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I saw Yoda mention the 6z RGEM trended nw with its precip shield. After looking at it in more detail that is an absolute stone cold assassin. Banding and fgen would be crazy with some of the rates being achieved.
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Wow! @BornAgain13 I am shocked you didn’t emphasize or speak on the 6z RGEM! Big bump nw with precip shield. That is a stone cold assassin right there for my area and yours. 700 frontogenesis is just straight dumb. I would not be shocked at all to hear someone reporting thunder snow later tonight. 3k and 12k both have it blasting our area and then moving north northeast.
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LOL Nam is a smoke show. Been the most aggressive for sure. @BornAgain13 6z Nam will allow you to breathe on that one. Broad stroke of the brush and looks much better down your way.
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I see it now on TT but it skips hrs 27-33 go figure. Regardless great area of lift traversing through and then really firing up up toward northern VA/DC crew with that low getting cranking.
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@MillvilleWx I’m just ready for that 700 fgen death band map you had earlier to see where it’s setting up on 0z
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Looking over 3k/12k other thing that stands out to me is even though the s/w is a weaker initially the dynamics are def there and the storm in general is just slightly delayed compared to 18z hence the precip shield expansion taking a little longer to get going.
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Looking at qpf 12k demolishes me with .94 qpf and 9.8” on Kuchera. Has you around .90 but 3-5” range down that way. I really think rates will overcome some of this but it may not be and very well most likely won’t be 10:1 down that way. Prolly 6:1/8:1. Tomorrow’s high temps are huge.
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Great post! Puts in perspective that wet bulb can potentially be huge for western folks in the forum.
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More interaction with the northern stream this run as well. Really trying to dig down from central IL. That may be something to keep an eye on next run or two.
