Buddy1987

12z GFS def trending the right way for next week for mountains as of right now. @BornAgain13 and I verbatim would look to get some pretty serious ice accretion. There’s 1040-1041 not too far away from being in an optimal spot. If that keeps shifting southward along with the flow of 5h could be an entirely different outcome as what’s modeled currently. Needing to get through this first storm first.

Canadian trended more consolidated and overall better with SLP and subsequent qpf. It’s been catching up for days tho lol.

Good luck to you guys down there! I hope you have a hell of a surprise in store. Been far too long for you all.

2nd frame you can really see the model trying to emphasize the banding potential. I can’t wait to see the radar early to mid evening off to our southwest!

I saw Yoda mention the 6z RGEM trended nw with its precip shield. After looking at it in more detail that is an absolute stone cold assassin. Banding and fgen would be crazy with some of the rates being achieved.

Wow! @BornAgain13 I am shocked you didn’t emphasize or speak on the 6z RGEM! Big bump nw with precip shield. That is a stone cold assassin right there for my area and yours. 700 frontogenesis is just straight dumb. I would not be shocked at all to hear someone reporting thunder snow later tonight. 3k and 12k both have it blasting our area and then moving north northeast.

LOL Nam is a smoke show. Been the most aggressive for sure. @BornAgain13 6z Nam will allow you to breathe on that one. Broad stroke of the brush and looks much better down your way.

I see it now on TT but it skips hrs 27-33 go figure. Regardless great area of lift traversing through and then really firing up up toward northern VA/DC crew with that low getting cranking.

@MillvilleWx I’m just ready for that 700 fgen death band map you had earlier to see where it’s setting up on 0z

Looking over 3k/12k other thing that stands out to me is even though the s/w is a weaker initially the dynamics are def there and the storm in general is just slightly delayed compared to 18z hence the precip shield expansion taking a little longer to get going.

Looking at qpf 12k demolishes me with .94 qpf and 9.8” on Kuchera. Has you around .90 but 3-5” range down that way. I really think rates will overcome some of this but it may not be and very well most likely won’t be 10:1 down that way. Prolly 6:1/8:1. Tomorrow’s high temps are huge.

Great post! Puts in perspective that wet bulb can potentially be huge for western folks in the forum.

More interaction with the northern stream this run as well. Really trying to dig down from central IL. That may be something to keep an eye on next run or two.

Hr 28-33 redeemed itself up here anyway. @BornAgain13 you are literally either puking fatties or on the rain/snow line.

Another red flag for me as of recent is the nams precip output. Tends to get drier prior to game time then tries to readjust at the last moment. That is clearly evident with the precip shield. Waiting to compare 3k to 12k.

Looking at 5h confluence over northern New England is stronger for sure but in general our s/w is flatter. Curious to see where it goes from here.

So far Nam at 22 is less amped compared to 18z ninja’d by burrel

I really feel like a lot of folks are putting way too much weight on the Nam runs. Go with the general consensus of globals and blend the short range models. The storm is not cutting to Cincinnati snd the SREF’s are out of date these days. I’m equally as excited for the 00z runs but logics and sound reasoning always win. Not calling you out by any means but just in general highlighting using models but also using physics and general knowledge of our areas is the key!

Was discussing in SE forum we need a name for the Icon when we are about to get lit up. Equivalency of Nam with Nam’d or Nam’ing. Someone had voted for EYE Con’d. Icon IMO has killed it thus far.

I still wouldn’t overthink the NAM for those who are going to pound an adult drink back in frustration. It has a known problem with overdoing convective processes, specifically 3k. Tends to have too much of a convective nature to it, which obv could affect temp profiles, etc (latent heat release from convective elements etc..) I wouldn’t fully discount it but more or less use it as a tool. Seems to be the most amped model at this juncture as well. Icon has been absolutely rock solid and to my knowledge (someone can correct me if I’m wrong) but has verification scores that would be acceptable to the likes of GFS and CMC

@Disc or anyone for that matter. I would love to get a sounding when the fgen at 700 is over southern VA. That band will make up for borderline 850s mark my words. Don’t give up yet @BornAgain13 Nam notorious for doing this.

Now show the real expected (1/10 chance) that’s what I’m hanging my hat on. I’m all in for this one. Dynamics ftw

It’s so uniform with its precip output. It is nice to have short range models that have the ability to sniff out deform band etc.

Funny bc I’ve been busy at work this morning and just popped on to check it out but he actually tagged me in this. Meatball sized aggregates would just be pouring down. The lift and fgen on that is just dumb. Hourly rates would be worth me setting an alarm clock.

Kind of what I alluded to last night where I thought the storm still had the ability to amp and or phase some more. Better potential for BOOM factor but also could take some out of the game.