Buddy1987

Euro in my opinion continues to struggle with low pressure placement, as the system becomes occluded and stacked, it is having a hard time depicting where to ultimately place the “L” I think this gets smoothed out within the next 24 hours and would expect to see it jump southeast some more in line with other guidance. Time will tell but that’s what my gut is telling me. There’s a lot going on in the atmosphere between the confluence to our north and the energy diving down forcing the low to feel it and get tugged back to the west/northwest. I think by tomorrow mornings 6z runs we should def have a pretty clear understanding as to what is going to happen.

Yes and no. Time stamps matter but in this instance you have to somewhat adjust the time stamp because GFS is hauling a** comparatively to some of the guidance. So realistically there’s not much difference in the end when it comes to it. Maybe 4-6 hours. Euro is by far the most amped at this juncture. There’s been a clear trend with long range meso models and the GFS

We talked about this yesterday. Seen some names pop up I haven’t seen in a good while. Even when I look at browsing I see someone like @Pilotwx I know something significant is on the map.

Boy one of them is very wrong. Placement of the low over CHS or over CLT will most definitely have some major implications. Kinda odd to see Euro go against almost all guidance for last nights runs.

Damn the GEFS is really far east comparing even the last run once it gets to VA Beach area.

IMO CMC on somewhat of an island at this moment. Believe its still playing catch up. If anything there is a no doubt trend in all the globals tonight, which is encouraging to see.

Very noticeable looking at it on TT. Flatter flow out ahead of it is def helping.

Man what a smoke show yet another run. 2ft again. The ULL swings right underneath me and THAT is a classic major snowstorm for western VA

ICON for sure is worlds different at 96 and 99 at 500. Pretty impressive.

HR 90 ICON is south of 18z position. HP wedged in a tick better as well. Low pressure over SAV

ICON surface map at 69 really doesnt show much change with the LP in southern MS

my eye will be on that HP to ensure it doesnt end up sliding to the east too quickly in subsequent runs.

Man its like a late 90s surface map with that look.

im on TT so you are ahead of me im only out to 42 but out to 63 on 850 map

500 maps are behind by a little but surface at 54 has very little change involved. MAYBE a tick east southeast with the low

Recon sampling the shortwave right now. AF305 Unassigned MissionType: Unknown | Status: En RouteAs of 02:02 UTC Jan 13, 2022: Aircraft Position: 38.83°N 125.02°WBearing: 90° at 374 ktAltitude: 9700 gpmPeak 10-second Wind: 79 kt at 204°Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge): Raw data file Full Mission In-Storm (click to enlarge):

If anyone is interested, Steve (PSU) from Mid Atlantic forum is hosting a live zoom session tonight when the GFS comes out with discussion and analysis. Sat in couple Sundays ago and it was a lot of fun. If anyone is interested email him at [email protected]

Steve ill see you guys in there

Saw from PSU it was slightly east with less ridging and lower heights so sounds like it is going in the right direction. (that was out through 78 as well)

No dont believe so.

Ahh my bad here. I thought I saw EPS but this is the GFS ENS. Still should make people happy. Thats a good bit south with highest totals.

Man and that’s with 10:1. Temps here are upper teens to around 20 Saturday night.

This is awesome!! Seeing everyone in here. I wish we had big storms more often

I've seen his name in here under browsing yesterday but he hasn't said anything as of yet.

Damn good to see you on here. Phew that happened to me once. Holy hell was that a process.