Buddy1987

My green giant Arborvitae trees are getting destroyed out there and they are a good 20+ ft tall. Sagging like crazy. Really sucks in that aspect. Can see icicles hanging off everything

30.9 here with moderate freezing rain. Radar def overachieving and looks juiced. Believe we may obtain ice storm warning results and since 0z short term models have increased ice amounts out this way. Last HRRR got us to at least .25”, whereas before it was more like a glaze.

30.9 outside and light to moderate freezing rain. Def not good.

Looks like radar starting to light up down by Asheville over toward Greensboro headed north/northeast. I feel an over performer for a lot of us already borderline or below.

Wow 12k Nam really shifted the trajectory of the precip shield to the west on 0z run early on. Either that or expanded things some.

@BornAgain13 they’re probably going to review the 12z models and then issue products this afternoon with the package they put out.

31.8 everything is a mess. People reporting 81 is a sheet of ice. All surfaces now have a good coating of ice pellets on them. @Tealsnowball I’m sure it’s really bad out your way.

RIPPIN sleet out. Temp down to 32.0. Starting to stick to all elevated surfaces.

12k Nam already looking much more juicy at hr 33. Let’s see where this run goes. Coverage also looks like it was better portrayed on 12k vs 3k for the current event rolling through now, at least for my direct area.

Down to 32.0 here with heavy sleet and some flakes mixed in.

Sleet much more pronounced here last 15 min.

Cue Vanilla Ice song with that look

I still don’t believe IMO that a 1034 HP parked up top will not at least deliver ice to the northern forum here. Low pressure is not that far off to where it could easily trend toward a better solution but overall not a good run agreed there

Boy gfs looking like it’s going to be even more amped at 5h with s/w digging deep into the 4 corners.

GFS itself has the indicator with the isobars backing far down into NC as well. Map verbatim doesn’t look as bad as Nam but you take the qpf output from gfs and combine with nams superiority in low level thermals and you already know you have a big problem setting up for Sat

TW this is what I was kind of alluding to the late last night early this morning in one of my posts wrt the overall setup. The winter storm watch that was issued for up here I feel like since we’re starting warm it’s going to be very hard to be able to accrue anything ice wise. Once the wedge actually does establish itself tho I view that as a very concerning piece come Saturday as it will be very hard to dislodge it, more so with it backing and building south/southwest into the day. This could get very real for northern NC/southern VA

RGEM looks Uber cold as well for a good portion of the triangle between 60-66. Nicely well defined wedge. At 72 the icing output is much lighter up this way but more serious down toward Greensboro and areas directly surrounding.

Yea the wedge at a minimum is much more pronounced into western NC as well for sure

Man you go out toward Route 8 into Floyd you’ll probably get more than you ask for LOL

12k Nam this way is pretty much a black out down here on Sat. 1.20” of freezing rain. Even half would be incredible for it to actually come to fruition.

I’ve lived in ROA since 2011. Is there anything that you can recall or think of that even came close to something like this throughout the decades or years? This is about 60 hours away give or take. We’re not talking 5-6 days out. Pretty crazy to think at an average of 1.30” half would still be .65”.

You and I are pretty much obliterated off the map Saturday according to 12k Nam. Good lord! Even half of those amounts verify it is beyond significant.

@BullCityWx I agree with you brother. Anyone writing this off at this juncture is pure lunacy. The way the models have performed past 72-96 hours and beyond this year would leave any reasonable prudent person to realize giving definitives is a no go right now.

Well not gonna lie was pretty surprised to wake up to a winter storm watch here for all of southern VA. I just feel like these types of events for one are super hard to nail down or predict and two usually fail epically because we are trying to wedge in 32 or below temps when precip has already started way before the main portion of the system is over us. This could easily be 33 and moderate rain over a long duration or 31 and not really accrue ice.

Man just completely smoked down here on sat/sun with freezing rain on GFS. Would be lights out verbatim.