Buddy1987

Gosh man you’re not kidding. I was so all about it a couple nights ago but the models really have put a sour taste in my mouth. I’d be shocked to even see 2” at this point

Lol the 0z nam was a complete dumpster fire

5h def doesn’t look good IMO tho if you compare it to gfs. Nam has a lot more of a positive tilt although it looks like it’s trying to interact with the tpv some so I’m not sure how that will tie into it. At this point my thoughts kind of have to change here looking at afternoon guidance. Everything hints toward more of a southern solution but giving up strength and energy at the same time. I believe GFS may end up on an island at some point if Euro doesn’t lend some support that way. We used to love to see nam amped if it was gonna be significant or a doozy and I’m not sure if they’ve corrected it since the update happened.

Eh.. if there’s one year it will be this year. There’s a lot of continuity with other models. I get people are chapped because every promising pattern and every storm within 5 days just epically fails but this one is gonna pull through! I’m going Jebman on this one. Fatties ripping and a decent storm north of NC/VA border. Real winners may very well end up being RIC and eastern NC

Without rubbing salt in the wound here are we out of the woods for wild swings down this way or do you guys feel like it could still trend even more south because of the tpv?

This point I’d go 3-6/4-8 type deal for my area. 2-4 for down your way. Agree?

Progression of system seems to have really sped up between 72-78 based on 5h and surface depiction.

Synoptically nam and gfs look relatively similar on 5h with s/w but differ with tpv. Gfs has tpv more north and east of 12z nam placement. Nam looks more like ukmet and euro at the surface so there’s that too I.e more south, weaker strung out low

Ralph where do you feel heaviest snow swath sets up?

I agree! I think dynamics alone as you get into north central and northeastern NC could really surprise someone as bombogenesis takes place. Gonna be one hell of a ccb that develops.

Guys by no means am I disrespecting eyewalls thoughts because he knows a hell of a lot more than I do but same time I truly believe he was referencing the majority of NC but again premature IMO to rule out Forsyth county, Surry etc..

I think it’s premature to say NC in general. CLT and RDU I would agree but north of 40 I don’t believe so. That TPV is still flying all over the place on the models.That being said I’m not sure as to how many people in the forum actually live along or north of 40. I feel like I’m out on an island sometimes haha

Can I just get clarification from you or @CAPE as to what happens if the models are mistiming this TPV and it comes even further south and east. Does that mean confluence starts to strengthen and force the storm more south of its current projection?

I would say Para would be a great happy medium for everyone in the forum IMO specifically with distribution of snow totals if taken at face value. Manages between 00z and 06z to have strengthened the storm by a couple mb albeit It is hauling ass. Has it at 988 east of RIC.

And just for reference the more I dissect the 0z GEFS was GREAT IMO if you wanted a trend somewhat (P10, P23, P28 YES PLEASE!). There are many major hits in there for northern NC in this. There’s still time for this to trend the right way

It is absolutely amazing to me the Euro can spit out something like that when basically almost every other model is gung ho I mean even ukmet is more aggressive. I know I’ve seen and read thus far the euro is slower in ejecting the s/w out of the southwest and I think that’s a known flaw and bias in its model suite to where it’s now impacting its evolution.

Just got home from having a couple beers. Gfs is just a beat down on that backside ccb. If anything you have to love the continuity amongst consecutive runs. Gfs looks promising I dare say. @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment looks good out your way as well. I overall have a good feeling about this for at least 40 north. I would assume Frosty and folks would be happy even if they got about 1-2” out of this.

Looks like good trend on Euro toward the GFS. We really need a little spacing like I alluded to last night so the next storm has some room to breathe and be able to amplify rather than get pinched off. That happens should allow for a stronger system.

Ukmet finally put the booze down and has a storm albeit still pretty Far East. Good trend tho IMO to see what the euro ultimately offers.baby steps are key for today

More importantly the GEFS agrees with the gfs but in all actuality looks better IMO pretty impressive to see the mean of 4” up this way but even 40 corridor average of about 1.5”

If I can lock in a 3-5” event right now you’d never hear a complaint or a peep out of me just sayin

Idk where to even access it anymore. Everything I have is stuck at 12z on 1/21

It won’t it’ll end up being a paste bomb if you take the gfs at literal face value

Honestly I don’t either. Normally if high is positioned correctly then I’d feel a lot better but in a sense there’s really nothing for the primary to push further north and east because the high is too far west to my liking and also allows WAA to flood over (tpv would really be the main saving grace and even that has been modeled to be all over the place). Really comes down to and this is if the ull can undercut us how dynamic it is and how quickly CAA can get going once winds switch in our favor and pump in that cold 1042HP

@clskinsfan 81 demolishing at least for what we’ve grown accustomed to. This thing will change more than I change my underwear so fun to at least see the potential