Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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25 and moderate to at times heavier snow with better dendrites. Eyeballing it looks like we’re approaching 2” here. Radar still looks decent for awhile. Snow is a nice powdery flour or sugar.
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1/10-11 super awesome winter SE OBS thread
Buddy1987 replied to strongwxnc's topic in Southeastern States
25 and moderate to at times heavier snow with bigger dendrites. Absolutely beautiful outside! Snow is like a powdery flour or sugar. -
@SnowGoose69 @HKY_WX could I get your opinions on what you foresee happening for southern VA? GFS went back to its idea of heavier snow at 18z, short term meso models seem more aggressive, but most globals are completely against it.
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It went back to what it was showing the other day. Previous to its slight southward shift we were in a 4-6” band for 5-6 runs in a row. Be hilarious if the Nam was actually onto something. Crazy model war 24 hours out.
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@BornAgain13 @wncsnow you guys will like the RAP a lot..
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18z GFS really beefed up snow accumulations for a good majority of the board. Love to see that last minute.
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Is this thing still overachieving on the north and west side based on reports? Been busy as heck at work today and haven’t been able to overly look.
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I’m in the advisory which means they’re all aboard the globals and not short term models. 1-3”. If I get 3” I’d be happy for sure.
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What an absolute impossible forecast for Blacksburg. Globals have an inch or two here and short term models have a full fledged snowstorm.
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I’d literally never complain again!
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What are the short term models seeing that the globals aren’t?
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I just can’t fathom this isn’t going to be more juiced than what its showing currently. You get this to go more neutral than positive and it’s going to naturally inject some gulf moisture.
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Could see this coming earlier on. Big change upstairs. See if it’s onto something or on crack like it tends to be sometimes.
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Nam trying to go more neutral than positive at 21. Wow.. pretty significant changes at 26. I would imagine we will see precip adjust a good bit north if this continues. Wonder if this helps to tap the gulf some as well. Phasing is def improved.
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GFS has been ROCK SOLID
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Nam 3k and FV3 are colder than the Nam 12k for NC. That’s a good thing.
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@BornAgain13 Nam and GFS still got us in the game.
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Nam actually looks a bit better with moisture on the north side, as well as with the backside energy. See if it does anything..
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About the only thing I’m hanging my hat on is from what I remember in the past and that is GFS used to school Euro in northern stream systems. About the only thing you can hope for. Other portion of the hope side of things is I actually thought the GFS improved some on the orientation of the trough axis and was much closer to going neutral. That happens we def have a fighters chance.
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Yea I’m about to track from afar. Gfs given me 6” or more 3 consecutive runs but it’s literally the only one doing so. Unless Euro gets onboard kinda hard to get overly invested in 1-2” possibly.
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Quite a significant difference with backside energy at 48. Confluence also good bit weaker comparing it to Icon same time frame.
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There hasn’t been a truer statement spoken hahaha. You all are majorly winning too.
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Confluence good bit stronger on Icon at 30. Good bit different as well evolution wise comparing it to the Nam thus far.
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FV3 has a much better precip shield at the end of its run comparing it to 0z NAM.
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What an unlikely solution to kickstart 0z runs. Just a ton of different things happening upstairs. I’m not even sure there’s a model that comes close to portraying 0z nam.
