beavis1729

Yep, my thoughts exactly. We'll occasionally get some decent winters here, like 1978-79 and 2013-14...but not consistent.

Right...and nothing Josh or IWX are saying is incorrect, with respect to the general public. However, being on a weather board that has a lot of hardcore winter weather fans, I imagined that folks here would enjoy, appreciate, analyze, and hope for winter a lot more than the general public. In other words, winter weenies who are often frustrated with their climo. But I could be wrong, and it appears that I am.

Yep...no offense taken. It will happen some day. Yeah, I do like the variety, but prefer seasons to be seasons. From June 10th to September 10th (not quite JJA, due to residual lake cooling in the spring), about 90% of the days at ORD feel and look like summer. In other words, you know it's summer. But in DJF, much less than 90% of the days feel and look like winter. As Jonger likes to point out, it's also frustrating because you can drive 3-4 hours north of here, and winter is a completely different world. Even if you go a few weeks without significant snow falling, there is usually snow on the ground, and ponds/lakes are frozen. So close yet so far.

I think you’re misunderstanding my point and tone, which can definitely happen over social media. Here’s an example. If you’re a Cubs fan, you rooted for them to win the World Series every year since 1908, despite the long odds. And you get frustrated when they come up short, because you love the team. I root and hope for winter to be winter, despite our ridiculously horrible climo. If I expected every year to be like climo, there would be no point in being excited about winter, or talking about it on these forums. So, I get frustrated that people on this forum don’t have the passion for winter that I do. That’s what my post from a few days ago was getting at. I guess the flip side is the following: people can’t have it both ways. You can’t say that we have a wintry climate in Chicago and hear the media and general public whine and complain about it...and then at the same time, the data shows that only about 1 in 4 DJF days are truly wintry in Chicago. Both of these things can’t be true. At the end of the day, it’s annoying and maddening that no one understands or cares about the plight of winter weather lovers in our sub forum, at least for those south of about 43N. I expect that attitude from the general public, but hope that this board would be more understanding and on the same page. Not a big deal, but that’s the situation. I know, first world problems. But that’s what happens when you’re passionate about something. It’s the definition of a weenie, right? I have a met degree too, so I’m afflicted with a passion for both winter and the science behind it. And the reality of my job doesn’t allow me to move north right now, as I am sure is the case for many people.

Yeah, not a good pattern for the next couple weeks, it appears. Frustrating as ****, but I guess it’s still early. I have a trip planned in late January to take my son snowmobiling for the first time, in northern WI. Can’t wait.

I didn't say the pattern wasn't active. I just said that active isn't always a good thing, especially when active means rain. Either way, I don't expect anyone to empathize or agree with me. I was just venting and was clear about that in my post. Not a big deal.

Not sure what everyone is so excited about...but the next 2 weeks look like crap. Rain and warm this weekend, then chilly but not a lot of precip, then a potential warm-up around Day 10-12. Not saying all of this is gospel...but it looks pretty bad based on current modeling and teleconnections. People's expectations are so low for Winter, it drives me crazy. It is not good to have a rain event this weekend. Doesn't matter if the pattern is "active"; rain is not acceptable this time of year. All of the beauty of last weekend's snowfall will be wiped away. And I understand my climo...that is not the issue. As I have said repeatedly, a climo winter here would receive a grade of D- at best. As an example: if ORD received zero flakes of snow this December, it would still be around normal snowfall for the season-to-date. It doesn't mean we should be happy about the early snowfall this season; it just means our climo is horrible. It's laughable that our normal high is around 40 at the beginning of December. That is not winter. And on and on and on. Blah blah blah. Someone should create a "winter index", based on the following metric: Average # of days per year with a high temp of 32F or lower AND at least 2" of snow cover. In my mind, that constitutes a wintry day. At ORD, the "Winter index" is probably about 25 (?). And that could be optimistic. Either way, it means that fewer than 1/3 of the days in Winter (DJF) are actually wintry. That says it all... I don't intend to argue or bicker with anyone on this...it's a complaint thread, and I'm venting.

All of the angst about December and the associated back-and-forth are just part of the life of a winter weather lover. Logic and hope are not the same thing...and I'm guilty of it all the time in the Lakes/OV forum. As an example - we just received 8" of picturesque wet snow a couple of days ago, and will drop to near 10F tonight with most of that snow cover still intact. But it's supposed to rain this weekend with highs in the 40s. Everyone seems to accept it and say that it's still early December, so rain isn't too surprising...but it's like all of that effort is wasted on the beautiful snow storm from a few days ago. Just maddening... Ironically enough, we could go all of December without seeing one flake of snow, and still be at about normal-to-date snowfall on Dec 31st. That doesn't mean I should be happy about it...it just means that our snowfall climo is crap. I always say that, if we had a climo winter, it would get a grade of D-. My expectations and hopes are always higher than climo, because climo winters are horrendous in the NW suburbs of Chicago. 40" of average annual snowfall...and no period of consistent snow cover can be counted on, even in the heart of winter (mid-Dec to mid-Feb). Normals of 30F/15F in Jan mean that a day with a high of 20F (which seems like a typical cold winter day to me) is balanced by a day with a high of 40F...which is definitely not wintry at all. And of course Dec and Feb are even worse when it comes to temps. Someday I plan to move to northern WI or the UP of Michigan, where winter is not so fleeting. It's just the life of someone who loves winter...like DIT and all of the others here. Just part of the deal. I always enjoy the winter discussions in this sub-forum...keep it up.

Thanks for catching.

Strangely, I haven't seen a final total from ORD...but I believe it was in the range of 7-8".

Strange that areas near Woodstock are close to 10-12” already. Here in Lake Zurich (about 10 miles SE of there, in far SW Lake County), we’ve only had about 3” so far. Still looks beautiful though...and congrats to those in the jackpot so far.

Of note too is that, in IL, these very high modeled snow amounts all occur after 12 pm today. So, the current mixed precipitation and/or rain is not a surprise, at least per this model run.

Wow, nice overachieving cold in IA and MI! Same for northern WI as well, as my favorite town of Minocqua dropped to -4. Clear and calm with snow cover and long nights. We have about an inch of snow on the ground here in the concrete jungle of Chicago’s northern suburbs...and if skies clear tonight, we may drop to 12 or 14. Lowest temp so far this season has been 16. Normal low is around 27.

Don Sutherland's winter outlook is in the main forum, for those who are interested. Here is an excerpt of his seasonal snowfall estimates: Albany: 70”-80” Atlanta: 3”-6” Baltimore: 30”-40” Binghamton: 85”-95” Boston: 55”-65” Buffalo: 100”-110” Burlington: 80”-90” Chicago: 45”-55” Detroit: 50”-60” Nashville: 5”-15” New York City: 45”-55” Newark: 45”-55” Philadelphia: 40”-50” Providence: 50”-60” Richmond: 30”-40” Scranton: 50”-60” Sterling: 28”-38” Washington, DC: 25”-35”

17 IMBY this morning and 20 at ORD, 2 degrees off the daily record low. Coldest temp I found in the Midwest was -3 in Bemidji MN.

Yeah...and their October temp departure to date is +10.4. Even more impressive is that the lowest temp so far in October is 38. That is crazy. If this type of pattern can take hold for awhile during winter, we’ll be in good shape.

Some interesting weather going on in NA. Fairbanks, AK has yet to see any flakes this season so far...it's the latest on record without a T of snow. I believe the prior record was October 8th or 9th. Also, from another forum: Very impressive to see DFW have their first high temperature below 50 of the fall before NYC. A -30 high temperature departure this time of year is pretty extreme. A new record low maximum temperature of 49 degrees was also set. (The previous record was 60 degrees in 1923.) This is the earliest in the season for a high temperature in the 40s. (The previous record was October 22, 1936.)

On the cold & snowy side of the recent storm, Grand Forks ND dropped to 9F this morning over fresh snow cover. It obliterated the old daily record low of 19F from 1979...and is probably the coldest temp on record so early in the season. Normal low is 34.

Yep. Could be near freezing tomorrow night...should finally get rid of the mosquitoes.

ORD dropped to 70 at 7:00 AM, now up to 72 before the plunge begins tonight. The max/min yesterday was 85/70, crazy for October 9. The low of 70 set a new max low temp for the date, and the 2nd latest 70+ min on record.

Mobile, AL was 91/82/113 at 12 PM local time...wow. Now down to 87/79 after a storm rolled through.

I forgot about that anomalous heat last September...I guess I try to block out warm wx as much as possible. 7 consecutive daily records...wow.

Looks like Boston had a max/min of 98/81 today...crazy for the time of year.

Min temp at ORD this morning was 78...should be able to hold this through midnight.