Windspeed

Another big bust with nearly every model was the awful intensity forecast. Even the ones further south never showed anything like a sub-940 mb hurricane with 155 mph winds. These models made it seem like conditions would be so god awful that the best Ian would do is 125-130 mph. 

Trough interaction is still very difficult to forecast and model. That being said, there were some strong TC model runs. But overall, it's still a science that still cannot be considered a mature discipline. Much research is still in its infancy.

We are scheduled for recon this afternoon. If something is organizing under the convective canopy, we'll know then. There is presently good low-level convergence into that suspicious area of the northern dense blob. The old vort has been kicked out to the NW.

Despite the drop in %/color code for TCG potential, I'm sticking to favoring development of 91L sooner than later. Current convective activity may look anemic, however, these semi-permanent clusters of storms will aid in organizing a low level vorticity maximum if they can persist beyond diurnal maximum and into the day tomorrow. Sure, global op modeling remains meh, but visually 91L remains a vigorous wave with turning, albeit weak, that appears to have the ingredients for genesis. I still favor this becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean that will threaten CA.

For whatever reason, (I see some shear but not horrible), ensembles are not very enthusiastic.  Lost a lot of the convection, but the vorticity is rather evident.

Very evident mid-level rotation. There does appear to be low-level westerlies on the southside of the wave axis. Really nice moist envelope. Despite lack of early enthusiastic modeling, I'm still on the TCG train. Just needs to fire and sustain convection near the nascent center. The positioning of the axis folding is far enough south of the ULL/upper trough to avoid hinderance as far as strong shear. There may still be shear in the eastern Caribbean for a short window to deal with, but I really like this system to take off in the short term, then perhaps a steady state until the TC gets south of the Greater Antilles. Hopefully we'll get a recon flight out there in the next day or so.

Carribean runner. I actually like development of this system and a hurricane landfall somewhere from the Rivera Maya, Yucatan, down to Nicaragua. Outflow looks really great. There will be some enhancement by an ULL to the north that may aid TCG. But then may impart a window of shear. By the time the system is south of the DR, however, conditions will support a strong hurricane all the way into CA.

The pattern flipped late, but it flipped. We may be facing an active October. We aren't going to reach hyperactive for the season, but active/above normal is looking like a lock. We are now in a +AMO setup. If this had occurred in August as was previously forecasted by seasonal outlooks, the year probably would have ended up hyperactive. Wave breaking issues aside, this is a classic look...

One good reason a Cat 4 vs. Cat 5 designation matters is because it factors into the amount of financial assistance that can be authorized to aid in recovery.

This is getting bantery but I do not think category dictates the financial restitution in any given legislative or emergency coordinated relief and assistance. A distaster is a disaster mitigated by the severness of the aftermath.

Unfortunately, as has been reiterated time and time again, it only takes one to make a season memorable and historic, regardless of overall activity.

I'm surprised with the increase in intensity the east side of the eyewall's returns are weaker in comparison to the rest of the wall.  That has to be closer to the land based radar site so I would think it would be stronger?  Thoughts?

Down shear quadrant. It won't matter when the eastern eyewall starts making landfall however. Frictional convergence will most likely enhance and light that quadrant up like Time Square on New Year's Eve.

Oh boy...

Unreal... Eye should continue to clear with such strong subsidence. Did not expect the eyewall to get so intense this morning. GLM flashes are booming with the hot tower. Horrible timing is an understatement.

RE: An intensifying hurricane into landfall...

Significant wind damage near and west of Arisaig. Surveying now.

Trees down all the way into New Brunswick.

Thanks for the updates.

Plenty of members show a Tampa area hit, not sure I would call that “wishcasting”. Nothing is off the table at this point.

It's not even just any member. Granted, the ECMWF may come back west, but there is a notable concern for more track adjustments if it does not. We do not even yet have a well established stacked TC to feel deep layer steering as intensification modeling is behind schedule, so plenty of unknowns remain.

I haven't been participating much this weekend due to some personal issues. All I would contribute, and I am sure this has already been hammered home, regardless of how strong Ian gets and however much hype, the prognostic analysis of the synoptic pattern screams one thing: If Ian is a Panhandle hurricane, it will be ripped to shreds; where as if it hooks into the upper level flow and makes a beeline towards the western penninsula, it will be a stronger hurricane at landfall. How strong? It may still weaken, but the intensity should still have devastating impacts. I'm not even sure Ian will maintain hurricane intensity if it landfalls on the Panhandle. It's pretty cut and dry, no pun intended. So you want that solution, not the ECMWF solution.

lol

I mean major hurricane landfalls are indeed rare regardless but Florida does dominate the metric.

We're still way below average for climatological ACE through yearly date, but boy is it closing fast. Should surpass it by the end of September. If October has a few hurricanes, we'll likely end up as what is considered an active season, but still well below seasonal forecasts. At any rate, we're staring down the barrel of two strong landfalls.

Interesting for sure.  We’ve beaten the Tampa thing to death, but it’s pretty rare for a major to landfall anywhere in Florida.

To get things back on topic... Only one dropsconde had a wind shift (NE instead of southeast/ESE) otherwise a whole lot of nothing

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Yeah ultimately though the low level wave is there and has tilted/folded north, this thing needs convection. That may not come until tomorrow though.

It does decent from my understanding. Outside of the hurricane models the EURO does better than the GFS with hybrid storms. Still there’s a lot of agreement among the models that a sub 930mb Fiona strikes Nova Scotia.

I am finding the sub 930s hard to believe even with all the model agreement. Perhaps sub 940, but it just seems a bit too extreme, though obviously not impossible. That's a good 30 mb below their records. We shall see...

Yeah I am pretty certain that is old wall cloud debris slowly dissipating. Fiona is looking pretty sexy right now. Wonder what peak will end up being. I'm going to say 145 mph sustained sometime during the day tomorrow, though certainly it could get there tonight.

Eye looks to have collapsed again...

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That may be cloud debris from the old eyewall left by the earlier ERC or partial cycle rotating around.

Recon found pressures have fallen to around 933'ish but the winds have not increased. In fact they have dropped. This may be due to new strengthening eyewall convection but perhaps the vortex has not yet spun up to respond to the pressure falls.