J.Spin

I’ve always taken these “summer’s back is broken” testaments as very locally/regionally oriented, because the farther you stretch them out to say global, hemispheric, or even CONUS scales, the less sense they make. I don’t even really have a perception of what the expression means for places like San Diego or southern Florida, and if it has any meaning at all in those places, it’s likely to be at a very different time of year. I get that one can look at the overall longwave pattern and note when there has been a dramatic seasonal switch, but it’s still going to typically produce regions that would seem to go in different directions with respect to seasonal progression. I’ve only used the expression in the context of the NNE, where at this point in August if we’ve got forecasts going out the next week or two with highs in the 70s F and lows in the 50s F, we’re done with respect to high summer. Once we’re past that window of time, we’re almost into September, and there’s really no going back to extended periods of 90s F and high dews at that point up here. The term is of course ridiculously subjective and loaded to begin with, but my perception is a lot of people use it quite regionally.

I agree with @tamarack about Saddleback’s snow quality as likely the best in Maine due to the upslope component, and the reported annual snowfall averages from the state’s largest resorts would argue for that with Sunday River at ~155”, Sugarloaf at ~200”, and Saddleback at ~225”. On that same note, I seriously think that the Dixville Notch/Balsams area would get that prize in New Hampshire. It’s likely that Mt. Washington itself has greater raw snow/liquid equivalent numbers up above 4,000’, but the beating and wind scouring that the snow gets up in those alpine elevations is so extreme that the quality often takes a hit. And of course, skiing up in that alpine terrain with the combination of winds, temperatures, and deadly terrain hazards is really not an option for most people. Wildcat and Bretton Woods, which are literally right there in the Mt. Washington area both report ~200” a season, and Balsams seems to report ~250”. It’s really hard to get reports from people skiing that area (I think visitation was always sparse even back when Balsams was operating), but it’s got great latitude and potential for upslope, and it really feels like the snow quality should be way up there. I think elevations top out around 3,500’ there, so that’s a touch lower than the peaks of some of the resorts, but it feels like it would come in just a tier behind the Northern Greens (maybe akin to the Central Greens) for snow amounts/snow quality. With the terrain there, I bet the ski touring is really nice in spots where tree spacing is sufficient. If the ski footage they used in their promo video is actually from the Balsams, it certainly shows promise. You can see that one shot at 1:07 where you’ve got that upslope-style snow stuck to every deciduous branch. You typically need upslope/backside snow, and protection from the wind to get snow deposition like that.

Once we hit August 1st, it’s always good to be on the lookout for the breaking point of summer around here, but I wasn’t quite ready to call it back during that first week because that impending mini stretch of heat that we had on the 10th and 11th was still approaching. You definitely started the fall party though. I’m not sure about SNE of course – based on what I’ve seen on here over the years they seem to hold onto the big heat potential much longer. In our area though, it’s hard to imagine top tier heat coming back based on the extended forecast. It looks like temperatures will struggle to even reach 80 F, so 90 F is obviously a long shot.

Exciting – I’d say those are all solid choices for a potent NNE experience, especially in the winter department.

In one of the main threads they’re already talking about how it can be hard to get 90s F in SNE at the end of August, so you can imagine how insanely hard it must be to do that up in your area. As Ginx says:

That map looks pretty good for what I hear the resorts like – solid accumulations for the mountains, with potentially minimized travel disruptions in the big cities to allow people to travel to the snow. I think that storm produced great turns in some cases, but it also brought a lot of wind in spots that reduced the quality of the powder.

It’s good that the indoor/outdoor thing was cleared up, but the bolded is where this still seemed to go off the rails. Just like someone heading to the Rockies, your typical vacationer is not coming to the mountains of NNE to experience sweaty, 70 F nights. Ironically, that’s what would ruin the vibe. The typical vibe for summer in the mountains is warmish days with modest dew points where you can swim, kayak, hike, bike, etc., then cool evenings where you may put on a hoodie, hang out by the fire etc. People often come up to get away from having to spend the entire day and night in the A/C, and instead maybe sleep with the windows open to get some fresh air for a change, or be able to sleep for the night in their tent without sweating their arse off. If someone is staying in a hotel, having A/C is certainly nice, but it’s hard to imagine the tourists coming up to the northern mountains expecting the vibe to be thick, soupy nights where you can cut the air with a knife. I know @powderfreak has interacted with plenty of visitors to the area, so he may have a sense for what they’re looking for/expect.

The confusion might just be caused by localized or regional differences – those sorts of temperatures and dew points might not happen until later in the fall for posters from other parts of the country. So it might feel like you were calling for first frosts and cool autumn weather.

Yep, August in NNE.

Apparently it’s not just the grounds crew; they’ve already released shots of the home team warming up…

I saw some of that in my point forecast, so I took a quick look at the BTV NWS forecast discussion and their thoughts are the same. I could swear I’ve heard in the subforum that HHH is what everyone wants in the summer, but maybe we’ll just have to make due with “comfortable” for now. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 304 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 304 PM EDT Tuesday...By and large though, the majority of the time period should be dry with partly sunny days and mostly clear nights. Temps turn back towards seasonal norms with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows mainly in the 50s. Dew points will be comfortably in the 50s as well. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 304 PM EDT Tuesday...Sunny days and clear nights are expected, with temps very comfortable in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 50s Saturday, and slightly warmer in the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday.

We were at the Alpine Mart in Stowe yesterday afternoon/evening after our Mansfield hike, and just as we were parking the car along the left side of the building, this huge black bear was sauntering along heading westward out there in the back yard of the store. The boys thought it was just a huge dog at first, but then did a double take when they realized it was a bear. I told them it wasn’t at all surprising based on all the bear sightings you’ve been talking about in town this summer, and then I proceeded to show them some of the interesting bear pictures you’ve posted as we were driving home.

I was wondering when someone would make those first whispers of summer’s back being broken – and it makes sense it would come from one of the NNE crew. There’s no doubt that at least a minimal switch was flipped back on the 28th after that rather potent stretch of humidity subsided. When you have that elevated heat and humidity that sometimes comes around in July, it just makes it that much less pleasant to get out for non-water activities, and indeed we’d just been sticking with fairly short MTB rides hitting routes from the house for the past few weeks. That switch in the weather really made things pleasant enough that it’s felt worthwhile to get out – the boys and I had a fun ride in the MRV over the weekend, and the family hiked to The Chin yesterday. The weather has been fantastic for those sorts of activities. With the temperatures over the past few nights, not only has there been no need for fans in windows to cool things down, we’ve had to close a certain percentage of windows or else we would have overshot the cooling. As far as we’re concerned, that’s pretty convenient. It looks like we’re going to shift from 70s/50s to some 80s/60s in the coming days, so it doesn’t seem like summer’s back is seriously broken just yet, but the past week or so has definitely shown some weakening. And, even if an above average August is in the cards, we’ve already passed the climatologically hottest part of the month and the overall feel still won’t touch an above average July.

Yeah, I’m seeing some highs in the 70s/lows in the 50s for the mountain valleys – awesome late summer weather for outdoor activities. Amazingly, that’s actually in the range of average as PF noted above, and August even shaves a couple degrees off each of those.

As I was reading this, it seemed appropriate that you were frequently putting “friends” in quotes, because I’m not sure who these people are that you’re talking about. Are we talking about born Vermonters, 7th generation types, transplants from out of state to a resort area, 2nd home owners, or something else? Everyone’s definition of “friend” is different I guess, but my actual friends would already know every detail of everything you poured out so thoughtfully in that paragraph. There would actually be no need to discuss any of it or even make it known to them – just from years of knowing me, they would already know my opinion on just about all of that and could easily assume that I was taking all those actions. People that don’t already have a feel for all that stuff, or would turn a blind eye to the issue are probably more in the realm of “acquaintances” or maybe “neighbors”, but they’re definitely something else. Yeah, it’s probably semantics, but the overall concept might be one of the confounding factors related to this issue.

Hehe, LOL, you’re right in that we aren’t your typical ski family. But, we’re certainly less unique if you compare us to other ski families around here in NVT or probably even other parts of NNE. I actually brought up the season ski rental time limitation issue though because it happened to a colleague of mine at work – he was renting for the season from Bolton for his kids, and had planned to continue using the skis to ski at places like Stowe, Smugg’s, Sugarbush, Jay Peak, etc. at the end of the season. But, he unfortunately had to return the skis when Bolton closed down at the beginning of April, so that was pretty inconvenient. I’d never even thought of that sort of limitation on season rentals until he pointed that out. Also, I wasn’t sure how serious Phin was going to get with the family’s skiing now that they’d be living so deep in NNE ski country. I see now that he mentioned a couple dozen days as a rough number, and that’s actually a pretty solid season.

I agree that it could be very dicey. I would seriously encourage anybody who has even remotely thought about getting a backcountry/skinning setup to have one on hand this season. Even if the worst happens and the resorts not only shut down lift service, but somehow revert to closing resort-based uphill access again, midwinter will still offer all the usual backcountry spots. I could imagine the more formal spots like Pinkham Notch being closed again, but it would be hard to imagine the state trying to close all public lands to access. I’m not sure how they would enforce that.

Yeah, there’s no way a regular swap format can be used. I’m really hoping they can figure something out to do some sort of swap-style events. They’re just so useful, and they’re also fundraising events for a lot of schools and organizations.

Daily rentals are always a hassle, but they’re probably going to be a massive pain this coming season. Season ski package rentals for the kids are a great option for many families, since there are some excellent perks like being able to simply have things replaced if they break (within reason), or swap out skis or boots for a larger size if the child grows a bunch during the season. We never went that route though, because buying skis for our boys was better for a number of reasons: · Most places you rent from, whether from the mountain or from a local shop, have a limited rental season. You have to wait until a certain date until they start the rentals (around November, but it can vary), and there’s a date by which you have to return them (typically sometime in April). This is obviously a huge headache if you’re going to ski the full season, and our family typically skis from October through June as long as the snow is around, so that would cut off a lot of the season. · The options for rental skis are typically limited – they’ll certainly have all around carving skis, and they’ll often have a twin tip option as well if kids would like a more park/freestyle-oriented ski, but they’re not typically going to have more specialized skis like power skis, Telemark skis, AT skis, etc. · It’s really not that expensive to buy kid’s skis of you go to the ski swaps. There are tons of ski swaps each season, and the prices for kid’s skis are often very reasonable. For just a regular pair of all around carving skis, you can easily find a used pair for ~$100 or less. We would buy a pair like that for our older son, and he would use them for two years, and then our younger son would have them for two years, so we would get four years out of that $100 investment, and you’re talking $25 a season. Then after they’ve outgrown them, you can typically recoup half the money by selling them back at a swap, so in the end, the yearly cost is really minimal. How much of this you can do obviously depends on the age distribution of your kids of course, but depending on how that works out, it can actually be cheaper than a season rental. Good powder skis are harder to find at swaps, so we would only occasionally get lucky and find something, but most of the time we had to buy those new. But, we’d still get a previous year’s model, the price would be reasonable, and we’d get four years out of them and be able to get money for them in the end at a swap. For Tele (and likely AT skis as well), forget about it, we always had to buy new. Kid’s Tele skis are not all that common as it is, and in all my years I’m not sure I’ve seen any at the swaps.

Roger that – we typically call that whole area up there “Blush Hill”. That’s the name of the main road that services the area, and the name of the country club up there as well. Houses seem to top out around 1,100’ as you continue on up. In their spot, they’ll certainly get a bit of a bump in elevation up above Route 100 (that first pitch at the bottom of the road is nuts), so that will probably increase snowfall a bit. I have a cousin who lives right up in the condos near Ashford, and we’ve got friends in houses farther up the road, but I haven’t heard any specifics on snowfall differences from down in town. Based on this info, I’d say a PF-style snowfall average is still a good first guess.

Yeah, they’ll certainly average triple digits for snowfall. I’d put ~100” as the floor for the annual snowfall average, but how much above that would depend on those usual elevation and microclimate effects. If they’re at an elevation of 600’, that’s around the higher end of the “floor” around here (roughly 400’-600’), so that could give a slight bump. Going with a generic “east side” site at that elevation, one could probably go with a snowfall average like PF sees. PF is a bit higher in elevation, but something like what he sees could be a good first guess.

That’s really exciting for them – coming from Williston it’s not going to be a totally outrageous change relative to someone coming from SNE or even further south, but they’re definitely going to see more precipitation, snowfall, snowpack, snow retention, etc., vs. Williston in the CPV. Williston is a pretty popular place to live, but maybe they’re moving to be closer to Montpelier for work? They’ll have incredible access to the surrounding area in all directions as PF said, because Waterbury is the junction of three main routes around the state – you can see the access to Stowe to the north, Burlington to the west, Montpelier to the east, and it’s not labeled, but that’s the Mad River Valley to the south. On the map below with Waterbury in the center, Route 100 is the black line running north-south, I-89 is the red line running roughly east west, and Route 2 is the purplish line paralleling and mostly hidden by I-89. Them being close to the exit off I-89 (we only have one, it’s exit 10) actually describes a lot of the area, so it’ hard to get a sense for where they might be just from that. To give you a sense for where we’re located, just head west from that dot on the map for Waterbury until you get to that orange shading. That shading marks Chittenden County, and the line you see marking that change is the border between Chittenden/Washington counties, and also the border between the towns of Waterbury and Bolton. That line also marks the approximate location of the spine of the Greens. We’re located just a bit on the Waterbury side of that line, about 2 to 3 miles from the center of town.

You got me curious, so I set the date on my data entry page back to 2009 before I had joined, and it seemed like you could. I didn’t actually enter anything though, but it might be an option.

Well, Ginx’s CoCoRaHS mapping update in the August thread was quite timely with respect to our discussion here. I made the July map for VT and pasted it below. Per my previous post, I immediately noted that the 9.15” from Cabot 2.3 E wasn’t on there, however, the next highest value of 8.48” for the month from Cabot 3.9 ENE was shown. Looking at the data summary table, I suspect that with five missing entries (perhaps zeros that just weren’t touched up yet on the monthly zeroes page), Cabot 2.3 E is not hitting the 90% data completeness threshold that is indicated in the legend. I would suspect the value for that site would show up once the data are updated, but it’s good incentive to get those monthly zeroes taken care of sooner rather than later!

Thanks Ginx, fantastic update to what we can now do with displaying CoCoRaHS data – I’m putting together a July map for VT right now!