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Go Kart Mozart

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Everything posted by Go Kart Mozart

  1. Go Kart Mozart
    Centralia, in down-state Illinois, seems like a pleasant spot today....94/81.
  2. Go Kart Mozart
    Nah, I'm bad luck. It never snows when I start the thread.
  3. Go Kart Mozart
    Do we dread August so much that we will eschew the monthly thread?
  4. Go Kart Mozart
    5K j/kg, wow!
  5. Go Kart Mozart
    We need a 50% tariff on Canadian smoke.
  6. Go Kart Mozart
    Fast movers
  7. Go Kart Mozart
    I drove through Monterey a few days later. Amazing to see acres upon acres of trees snapped like matchsticks about 15' off the ground.
  8. Go Kart Mozart
    As I understand the AI models, they do initialize with the same data as the physical models....radiosonde, satellite, etc. So they aren't completely "anti-physics". The AI models already seem to be ahead of the physical models in many respects, although in my entirely empirical observation, the physics models are still better within a few days. A blend is indicated now, but I agree, quantum computing will change everything.
  9. Go Kart Mozart
    Why the skepticism? Even at ECMWF, they say the AIFS beats the ECMWF in the majority of cases. They do feel that the physics-based models are better at handling the extreme events, which makes sense, in that extreme events have little historical precedent. It would seem that a combination of the two is the best approach now, but I would look for AI to become the go-to soon. Then comes quantum computing, ha ha!
  10. Go Kart Mozart
    Enjoy the heat and dews while you can. The Captain has come over the intercom and asked us to extinguish our smoking materials and put our seats in the upright position. Our descent into autumn has begun!
  11. Go Kart Mozart
    Bundle up!
  12. Go Kart Mozart
    lol, yes you are correct!
  13. Go Kart Mozart
    It's over, Johnny.
  14. Go Kart Mozart
    AI has been rock solid. Are you still using physics-based models?
  15. Go Kart Mozart
    Pretty good model agreement that summer comes to an ignominious end in about a week. We break the backbone! Jeez I hate summer.
  16. Go Kart Mozart
    One hell of a cell south of LI. Almost constant lightning.
  17. Go Kart Mozart
    Damn, I was working landscaping in August of 77. Must have been brutal.
  18. Go Kart Mozart
    This is warmish at the surface but still a take:
  19. Go Kart Mozart
    Interesting article in today's NYT on AI forecasting. Although, I had to laugh at the author's statement that "the NWS forecasts have fallen behind those of the European Centre"....like this is a new development. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/business/windborne-weather-noaa-cuts.html?unlocked_article_code=1.WU8.dSgd.U1XxjVdMfQ3a&smid=url-share
  20. Go Kart Mozart
    So, for the last four decades winter storms have shifted away from the east coast? How much of our taxpayer funded grant money went into this load of shit? Don't get me twisted, I am not denying that the earth is warming....different issue....but WTF is this?
  21. Go Kart Mozart
    I was in Westport that evening. For the life of me, I couldn't figure out why we had 35mph winds of hot air from the SW blowing toward the thunderstorm cell....it was massive inflow.
  22. Go Kart Mozart
    The echoes over CT seem to be getting sheared to the NE. Is that even a thing with Tstorms? I might also think it is good ventilation. Any thoughts?
  23. Go Kart Mozart
    I am seeing modest troughing to our west, with a lot of S-N flow over the seaboard. I will go with AN, but with t-shirt drenching humidity. I would prefer hot and dry, with New England along the ring of fire, or course.
  24. Go Kart Mozart
    I had 99 in Trumbull.
  25. Go Kart Mozart
    Visible sats show Greenwich, CT, on west already burnt off. This fog is toast.
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