mitchnick

Eps totals thru Friday, with showers still in the area.

Hoping we see this advertised from the Eps come winter.

Eps looks like it'll come in with a similar qpf/storm progression outcome, thought likely not as extreme, as the operational.

Let me be the first.

Slp just sits off the coast. Chilly in the wake of the storm. Hello Fall! Will this be a familiar scenario thru the winter? Let's hope.

Rain doesn't stop on Euro until 108hrs. Lol

Totals thru Tuesday 11pm. Still raining south of PA border too

Euro coming in pretty wet now too thru 78hrs and more to fall.

Thru 138hrs, total qpf on the EuroAI.

Icon midweek is lol.

2 reasons not to worry. First, the Cfs2 site has remained steady with temps it's been advertising for JFM. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Second reason, the October Cansips comes out in only 11 days! Lol

6z AIEPS entire run fwiw

6z AIEPS likes mid week.

6z

Welllllll, maybe, maybe not. No doubt the ridge in eastern Canada is the wild card, but there are ridges across the globe and there's no guarantee the one in se Canada will be too warm or that it won't be centered further north. And exactly how it morphs over the season will obviously have something to say about it, as I think we both agree it will become more forgiving after December. That said, I still don't hold much hope for December simply due to climo. P.s Just so that you understand my pov, I don't care about monthly temps, only snowfall. And we can squeeze a storm out of a warm month.

Don't forget the Euro was too warm with its 24/25 & 25/26 forecasts for the east. So if anyone is betting on the Euro for this year, it'll probably be more based on odds than getting the met right.

Cfs2 has a seperate link for the coming month. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/monthly/

It didn't stop you from commenting in the NE forum, nor did you question it. Lol

Surprised you didn't post this snowfall map posted in the NE forum that shows AN snowfall in a good part of the Mid Atlantic. You commented on it in the NE forum.

You'd probably want the High to start a bit more south as the surface winds would probably be more easterly than ne'ly, which would hurt the lower levels. Plus there's no slp off the coast to pull in a northerly component to the surface flow. This knowledge comes from age.

Hey, at least it was 1972-1976 and not 1872-1876.

Wait...aren't you Stormchaser Chuck? You should never be surprised by a snow storm! Lol

Amen as to the early to mid 70's. My high school years of 72/73-75/76 were horrendous. Fortunately, redemption came the next 4 years in college, though 76/77 was not snowy, only historic for the cold.

I deleted my post re the Cfs2 as it seems the Cfs2 site is stuck on 9/12. Looks like TT, as of today’s link, is more current. Those government guys are tricky!

Try "Global Relative AAM"