mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Wow!
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Latest Rap getting the right idea.
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Ggem has the Pivotal storm headed toward us, but is warmer to start with cold air lagging. Icon has a shot, if closer to being accurate, to be a decent hit imho.
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I like the look on the 180hrs Icon map. EDIT: GFS is on its own. Toss.
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That's why I stick to what the best degreed mets use exclusively...snowfall maps!
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The only way to know for certain is if the sim radar option is offered. On Pivotal, USA products have sim radar but other models don't. Maybe WB or weathermodels.com offers them, idk.
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Ggem
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Ggem 2mb lower slp. Should be wetter.
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Nam holds onto the precip longer by pulling in some ocean moisture. Methinks that's a sign of future qpf increases.
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Hrrr early on putting southern tier of PA as the bullseye per this progged radar. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024021512&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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6z Eps expanded 3"+ area with a dot of 3.5 over Bubbler!
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Maybe March has a reasonable shot at a fluke.
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The 6z Euro did!
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You're new here? Post it!
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Wow!
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Euro very nice forum wide.
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Ukie suddenly loves us down south. Very "Iconic."
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Rgem is good for PA.
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There seems to be less spacing between the vort passing to our north on Thursday evening and the one set to hit us. Need ours to slow or the other to speed up. I think we've lost any soitgern moisture of consequence too.
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There are studies that Bluewave claims points to warm waters in the western Pac and Indian Ocean as the origin of our Pacific pattern problems. I'm not prepared to sign onto it, but as I posted in the El Nino thread, I'm all in for a super Nina which would cool that area. Then starting in 25/26 winter, God willing, see how things look.
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Because all forecasts past 5 days are 1 notch above a guess. They should put 50-75% of the money and resources currently used for anything beyond 7 days into short range modeling imho.
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Yep, and after that I'm ok with closing up shop. Though I still think a flukey, late season event would be possible if the advertised SSW on the Eps occurs over the weekend. I'm thinking a cut-off, meandering low that drops big numbers often seen in March.
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Should have mentioned that the 0z Euro had the system the Ggem had at the end of its run, but was too far north for most of the forum. Plenty of time to come south in keeping with the flavor of the season. 0z Gfs had it dumping a decent event but 6z went haywire. It'll be back on the Gfs, of course.
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All modeling seems to have improved for the weekend, including 6z runs. Icon remains the best, so I've attached it. P.s. Ggem has a bomb at the end of its run. It was close at 12z, but adjusted for a home run at 0z.
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If your like me, what's it matter? There's only an inch or 2 left. Lol
