TheDreamTraveler

That's true. We did get a record amount of rain throughout September. I remember some drought years trees turning color in august lol

Oh and something I've noticed is how late it's taking for the trees to change color. I can barely remember a year where most of the trees were still green in my area all the way to Oct 7th. I'm really young so I don't have that many years to go off on but I definitely don't remember it taking this long. Peak foliage is around mid october for a lot of PA I think

Yep and that's another thing contributing to the very warm lows right now. All this cloud cover and high dew points has just make it kinda awful at night.

Just another abnormally warm and humid october. Kinda sick of it. And no this is not normal even though it's been like this for the past decade or so. Hopefully this is just a multi-decadal type of pattern but I'm starting to believe that less and less. Hopefully things aren't stuck like this permanently. The thing I hate most is when it gets hot like this it just shoots straight into very cold temps instead of gradually climbing down. But yeah the low temps are the most puzzling thing to me. They have just skyrocketed over the past few decades compared to previous times. I know development like cement and buildings retain heat so they warm areas up at night but that doesn't fully explain other locations. Lows have been in the 60s for a few days now and the next 10 days are going to have a low around 60 which is at least 13 or more degrees above the average. And when you look at averages it could easily be in the upper 30s if it was cooler than average right now. Honestly sucks lol

There are very many things attributed to the atlantic being very active right now since 1995. The atlantic goes through a period of 20-30 years of active and inactive tropical activity. There are a ton of global weather patterns that play a big role including as well but that'd take a long time to get into but Africa's weather patterns are a big reason for active and inactive seasons. And like you said warmer SST's also contribute to it either from climate warming or warm cycles that the oceans may be in. For example we're in a +AMO right now since the mid 1990s which was right around this active period started. But yeah there's a lot of things at play lol because if you remember before 1995 things were very quiet for a few decades lol Oh and about the thing you said about 1933 possibly being more active with satellites that's definitely true. Another thing to realize is the Atlantic was in a low activity phase around the time we started heavily using satellites in the 1960s and the active period didn't start until the mid-late 1990s.

0z Gfs is showing Sam hooking left into Nova Scotia now

Yeah considering it's the end of september I'm certain we're going to get through the entire list again. 2 years in a row is absolutely crazy

As long as this thing can hold itself together it heading into the Herbert Box definitely increases chances of a landfall somewhere by a decent margin but I guess we'll see

He's just upset Florida hasn't gotten anything. Like I said before people are spoiled lol. Just a storm like Ida alone is a type of event that may only happen once every few years in other eras yet we've had Harvey, Ida, Laura and Michael in the past 4 years alone. And that's not even counting all the countless other hurricanes that have hit

It's like I'm reading JB's twitter account right here

People are spoiled I think. Didn't we just go through a period of over a decade with no category 3 or stronger strikes on the CONUS? Same with there being no cat 5's for almost a decade as well lol

Temps next week are actually looking nice. Thank god lol those low temps look awesome

On top of the rain around 5 pm we've had heavy rain set up 3 or 4 times since then up until 4 am so far. It'll be fine for a few hours and then more just appears

I guess to give a good idea of how warm its been my parents closed their pool at this time last year and today my mom was swimming in it. And the way it looks it'll be that way for at least another 2 weeks

82 here as well with a dew point of 66 but there's also a nice breeze so it doesn't feel as bad as it could

Things are looking ready to pop off lol

Anyone have any idea what's going on with that potential homebrew tropical system a week from now? I know the gfs has been showing it riding up the coast and potentially having it rain here but I'm wondering how likely that'll be

Yeah definitely. I know Teddy was a threat last year in the area but it transitioned way before impact so it was more of a nonevent. Pretty sure Larry caused a lot more damage. It was blazing at 47mph so it didn't last very long so that probably limited some damage lol

yeah lmao. we got good wind but just a light rain

I was not expecting any storms. It's super windy out right now

Oh right didn't SPC have a 2% tornado prediction for us today? and then 5% farther east

Yeah that just exploded out of nowhere and looks kinda intense

Annular atlantic hurricanes are a rarity compared to the other basins. I think there's only a 1% of all storms ever becoming annular there while in the pacific its closer to 3% Interesting too that this is becoming annular around the same time and the same part of the basin as Isabel did in 2003. That's probably because the waters there aren't super warm since annular canes need 25c-28c water to form

oh boy. are we gonna have another fall where it goes from summer directly to winter? lol

Mornings and days like these just reenergize me for some reason. Especially after coming off such a hot july and august