Heisy

https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta89-14.pdf

18z GFS vs 18z euro AI. Really close honestly Gfs probably begins negatively tilting slightly earlier

The GFS uses some of its initialization data from the prior runs 6hr forecast. When I saw the 6z gfs I had a feeling 12z run would do what it did. It takes a few cycles to purge itself. I feel like the cmc ensemble mean is a very realistic outcome, but eps is highly concerning. Anyway, going forward the next time period to keep an eye on is the 5th which grew some legs on the Ai & some other ensemble means today.

Thing is the northern stream is sitting in S Canada right now. It isn’t like this is energy coming off the PAC and poorly sampled. Not saying it can’t happen, but I don’t expect any type of giant shifts personally. I hope I’m wrong though.

So absolutely frustrating that literally all we needed was that TPV to stretch slightly farther W and we probably see a blizzard from VA to SNE. Still, rooting on folks in SE

Just this small amount of tilt changes everything. This is a hair pulling event because the potential is off the charts and just these small factors are fighting against it

Hey just an outsider (Philly) visiting,, just curious, I see you state it is bullish for DC-Boston but the snow map posted seemed generally light. Hopefully we all cash in. I don’t know anything about this new model heh.

Here is an h5 comparison of the 18z euro vs 6z to show what’s changed in 12 hours. In the grand scheme of things not a whole lot, but in an explosive redeveloping system like this every small change matters. I think one of the biggest changes is the 50/50 positioning.

That 966 one looks fun .

Yea that wasn’t going to escape .

Took me a while this morning, my side of street is where all the snow goes. Shoveled when the snow changed to sleet, this morning when I woke up I had like 2-4” on my sidewalk of just crust I could walk across without sinking in .

Ji is slacking .

This model was really good last week, it had the fulll tpv phase in the medium long range when we were still in the suppression mode. .

Yeah when the Ukie & Ai came out I had a feeling this would happen. Not throwing in the towel yet, if that bowling ball is farther N in latitude it still would work. The “what could have beens” are the hardest part of this hobby lol. Just a small change turned the euro from the Blizzard of 26 to OTS .

I’m 40 but I still get a lump in my stomach before these runs lol .