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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Looks like 12z GEFS beefed up for the 27th .
  2. Heisy
    There’s a bunch of hits on all 3 ensemble means for around 27th
  3. Heisy
    Thought it would help but I guess not. Put the 18z gfs on animation on wxbell. It’s really insane how every shortwave goes over the ridge and has a tough time getting out of the southwest. It’s like there is a vacuum west of Mexico sucking every shortwave backwards .
  4. Heisy
    Looks like tpv phasing S this run so could lead to better things on the OP down the line, “could” .
  5. Heisy
    It was snowing lightly last night on my drive home from work, right around wood haven exit. A+ winter .
  6. Heisy
    Yea that TPV piece I mentioned was too far west. Check out these differences though between GFS/Euro. Pretty substantial for day 5-6 .
  7. Heisy
    GFS still looks nothing like euro day 5, that tpv lobe near lakes should keep this south enough, we’ll see .
  8. Heisy
    All 3 major models handling the 20th wave and the one behind it completely different. Todays Canadian buried that follow up energy, and todays euro brings it east and keeps the ridge strong. Differences between euro and the other 2 couldn’t be farther apart in the LR. We all know which ever one ends up being the worst for us will win .
  9. Heisy
    GFS OP advertising a PV split around 300 hours. Not sure if we’ll get a SSWE, but maybe our only hope this winter? Wouldn’t feel the effects until late feb/March I think anyway. I’ll let smarter people who understand that topic better talk about it. .
  10. Heisy
    Euro not dumping that energy out there then leads to this headed forward… Hope it’s right… .
  11. Heisy
    It seems the energy that goes over the ridge around the 20th is being handled differently by each model and causing some issues. 00z euro tonight isn’t burying that energy like the 00z GFS. Compare euro and gfs @ 192 hours, not even close, .
  12. Heisy
    CMC looks like it was going to cut energy under the ridge at end of run too .
  13. Heisy
    Sorry photos not working for me right now, GEPS has PAC ridge farther E .
  14. Heisy
    Difference between GEFS & GEPS pretty large @ Day 10-11 .
  15. Heisy
    Early on but NAM looks improved for weekend event. .
  16. Heisy
    00z GEFS and GEPS still different at day 9-11… GEPS is straight porn in the LR Think GEFS is different than euro/cmc because of how it’s OP and members handling those short waves day 8-10 vs other models .
  17. Heisy
    18z GEFS back to looking decent. Improvement off the 12z run. With how ridiculous the OP run is there’s probably some members also doing crazy stuff with shortwaves going over the ridge .
  18. Heisy
    Fine I’ll do it. Don’t hate me please. Anyone find it at least a little concerning that H5 looks great on EPS, but there’s little if any members showing snow in the next 15 days? .
  19. Heisy
    GEFS vs eps. Hopefully just a blip on the GEFS .
  20. Heisy
    Well the snowfall mean went up because 2 members have snowfall with one having like 40” of snow in the region. .
  21. Heisy
    Right the ensembles start picking up on individual shortwaves better as we get closer. Luckily cmc and euro look more similar to each other at end of run vs gfs.
  22. Heisy
    End of tonight’s CMC, starting to see the ridge in action on the OPs .
  23. Heisy
    00z gfs forms a rex block in the long range underneath the ridge, but you can see it’s about to dump the motherload of cold down south. See once you get a true -epo ridge only a matter of time for cold to work in .
  24. Heisy
    This would be the beginning of the pattern change, so I don’t know if cold air has worked in yet, but damn this is usually almost a perfect setup. Main vort a little too strong, but have confluence and 50/50. Hopefully sign of things to come .
  25. Heisy
    Now this we take… .
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