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Everything posted by Heisy
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Euro still teasing us it seems .
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The old black and white maps still come out before anything else. It’s still out to sea unfortunately still ballpark as GFS .
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I’m headed to Buffalo tomorrow morning. Can’t take December shutouts might as well get my snow needs out of the way haha .
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Historic Christmas Lake Effect Blizzard
Heisy replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
So I think I’m headed up!! I have enough PTO time etc. Timing is bit of an issue. I work tonight until around 12-1, gotta wake up early get some food for the trip. Stock up emergency stuff. Im coming from Philadelphia so about 6 hour trip I imagine. Probably drive through some bad weather in NY state but should make it with plenty of time. Any hotel recommendations or locations in general at this stage? . -
George I appreciate your enthusiasm. I’ve been on these wx boards since 2001 Wright-weather days. There were times I felt how you are feeling now where I could will a snowstorm into occurring. Modeling have gotten more advanced. Is there a chance? Sure, but you want some data to show something. None of the models are even close right now. Good luck though. As long as you can handle the let down… .
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Anyone wanna split a place near Buffalo? .
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Looks like 6z EPS/control brought the trough E. Gonna need some big improvements today. Nothing else to really track though so we’ll see .
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00z euro is painstakingly close to a phase .
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Going in the wrong direction. Like I said though I’ll give it to 12z tomorrow for euro/cmc/gfs to show something. If we strike out by 2:30 tomorrow I’d have serious doubts anything comes from this wave. Still in pike, I’d give it around 10-15%. I wish this next event didn’t fall near Cmas I’d def chase to Buffalo. I’m so hungry for something man, and I’m in Philly which makes it even worst. .
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Good post as usual, I really think this one is going to rely on whether or not a piece of the TPV can drop down and phase with southern branch. That would help mitigate the PAC trying to race everything East. Think we really need Euro or CMC show a hit by 12z tomorrow .
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GFS took steps in the right direction, but not close yet. Couldn’t care less what this model shows anyway .
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Giving me an issue posting photos for some reason, hopefully shows up… .
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Nice hit on the weenie control, does just exactly what we’d want at H5 .
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Control looks fun at 156, once I saw that figured some EPS interest .
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Yea that’s definitely a thorn in this setup. Would like to see one of the globals show a hit by 12z tomorrow and some potential on EPS. OT but god I wish I could chase this LES in Buffalo. Of course it falls right near and around Xmas .
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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
Heisy replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
You must be in heaven right now. Jealousy off the charts. I haven’t seen one flake here in Philly . -
Yes, if that southern vort slowed up a bit it could provide a nice front for a low to form as long as the diving S/W trends stronger/improved angle .
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It did try this run, but won’t come through. Feel like that left over energy down S messing things up. .
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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
Heisy replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It falls on Xmas or I would as well . -
GEFS sniffing it .
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Walt drag, my favorite Met, always says you always want the CMC on your side if a storm threat is real. I don’t have it out that far, but H5 did look decent. In general (based off GFS) We need slightly better spacing/separation in SE Canada, stronger S/W will help too. The PAC flow is racing E so it’s going to try to stop anything from developing, but not a horrible look. My fantasy team just got knocked out of finals because of Rodgers TD so I’ll take something to track right now to make my life meaningful haha .
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Hmm interesting changes. Noticed the 18z EPS/control strengthened this same clipper but didn’t say anything. Needs a little spacing improvement but could be something to track… .
