Heisy

Back to back OP runs showing -EPO and PNA in LR, keep building on this that will def user in some cold air and hopefully trap it in SE Canada .

GFS kind of shows same TPV phase situation we were dealing with during the last cutter. 18z gfs gets the energy in SE Canada out ahead of shortwave which allows some cold air to filter vs 12z which phases them. If there was a little more separation here with more of TPV press we could get hit here near coast. Need some work though. GFS colder bias could be at work here too and I think better opportunities probably better beyond this anyway TLDR: as long as we get some TPV press in SE Canada we’ll have some opportunities with an active PAC . .

Yeah because the trough comes east as basically one shortwave. Need wave separation for a shot at something significant .

It did, but it’s back to running. Looks like due to the fast pac flow there’s a few short waves to keep an eye on. The lead wave heads towards lakes and kind of phases with TPV, then the question is do next set of shortwaves come east as one low or do we separation ala 6z GFS/12z cmc where front clears and then a third shortwave is given room to redevelop. If that second shortwave comes east as one low there won’t be cold air available. Need to kind of beat down the ridge and create confluence to have a shot here. .

12z cmc comes close to pulling a 6z GFS scenario. A little bit more energy in follow up wave and could have been a good run As is close enough where this may be a legit threat models picking up .

No other game in town, both GFS & CMC tried to sneak in a redeveloper around same time frame. GFS just too far south and CMC a little messy, but trackable I suppose. PAC flow is so fast it hurts our chances unfortunately .

Honestly I would roll the dice with the pattern we saw earlier this month vs what I see on ensembles now. Obviously we need to fix the PAC and somehow get a a 50/50 to setup at some point. Ralph, we’ve been in this hobby for a long time. Patience is what makes snowstorms great. When we finally get a big storm here, and it will happen one day, the payoff will be great. I think by Jan 15-20 if we’re not tracking something in the medium range by then I’d start get worried. OT: I moved to Bensalem last April, right near where the tornado hit a few years back. I have a nice overhang open porch in front of my place. Can’t wait to experience a snowstorm here. .

There will be at least one more chase worthy event by end of winter. Still, I’m tired of chasing events. Just want to stay home and enjoy a damn snowstorm already lol .

Actually saw some pretty large scale changes on 12z OP CMC. It gets a TPV piece to drop SE with energy left over near Texas. Unfortunately the fast flow doesn’t let anything develop from it. Fishing for anything boys .

Really ugly runs last night. Models delaying everything. Sigh. I should have went to Buffalo .

I should have went to Buffalo .

Seeing better confluence for this time period showing up. We just had the GFS fantasy run, CMC looks better as well. Probably not enough confluence/cold air but trending right direction at least? .

Just posting an example of something to root for or look ahead. The hopeful “ridge killer” gets a little help from the N stream on the 18z GFS. It then leads to a decent confluence setup over SE Canada. La La land but something to keep an eye on as we get this time frame under 8-10 days. First image is the N stream dipping south combining with S vort to help usher in some colder air and knock down ridge. Second image is the setup it creates, which is pretty optimal imo. Note the tight isobars draped across the Lakes through NE .

This is the first wave to take on the ridge, stronger on today’s euro. As tip mentioned there is a wave after this that right now probably favors interior, but def some interest on ensembles for your region. Imo root for this first wave to trend stronger for any follow up around 7-9th .

I actually reserved a hotel morning before this event. It was near West Senaca. I cancelled last second. Was packed and everything. Turns out the location of my hotel probably got the least out of the entire region. They were too far S other day and too far N today. I would have been pissed. I don’t even chase snow well lol .

Some potential Jan 8-10 if we can time a shortwave well. Can see it across the ensembles today Can see early signs here. Little signal for a 50/50, +PNA ridge. On the cmc ens you can see a little confluence over SE Canada/NE and a secondary wave near East Coast Like I said, probably will need a lead wave to lay down some confluence and cold for any follow up. Can sort of see that if you put the cmc/GEFS ensemble in motion .

Definitely seeing some light at end of tunnel. All you can ask for at this point. There’s a few hits in the Jan 6-8 range for NNE on GEFS. One East Coast HECS on GEFS and a few hits mixed in on the CMC ensembles. Not bad Going to have to time shortwaves well. (More important down here in Philly), but need one wave to lay down some cold and have another timer and spaced properly .

So I packed and reserved a hotel near Buff today. Some last second stuff came up so I can’t go. This winter blows! Lol. At least we got the Birds. .

Hey all, I’m headed up soon. Staying (at least at the moment) at Country Inn near West Senaca. Doing last prep… Seems 12z NAM ticked S a touch .

Euro still teasing us it seems .

The old black and white maps still come out before anything else. It’s still out to sea unfortunately still ballpark as GFS .

I’m headed to Buffalo tomorrow morning. Can’t take December shutouts might as well get my snow needs out of the way haha .

So I think I’m headed up!! I have enough PTO time etc. Timing is bit of an issue. I work tonight until around 12-1, gotta wake up early get some food for the trip. Stock up emergency stuff. Im coming from Philadelphia so about 6 hour trip I imagine. Probably drive through some bad weather in NY state but should make it with plenty of time. Any hotel recommendations or locations in general at this stage? .

George I appreciate your enthusiasm. I’ve been on these wx boards since 2001 Wright-weather days. There were times I felt how you are feeling now where I could will a snowstorm into occurring. Modeling have gotten more advanced. Is there a chance? Sure, but you want some data to show something. None of the models are even close right now. Good luck though. As long as you can handle the let down… .

Anyone wanna split a place near Buffalo? .