Heisy

Holy fook .

Mitch, folks…. .

It’s diving all the way in, going to have to create some kind of big event… .

Yep the trough is better positioned, it’s going to definitely be close .

Yep, looks very 6z GFS esque, common… .

You can tell the streams are better aligned here… common… .

GFS has a stronger shortwave headed over the ridge, good sign early on… .

Early on the GFS has a stronger vort going above the ridge .

That was a phase, you can see N shortwave diving in. .

Yea and also the northern vort is diving in, that’s a big step to what we want… really hope gfs or euro give us something .

Good post, that was my point earlier this morning that the phase we need is almost at day 4 so I was hoping by 18z today we started seeing some hits across guidance. Then the 6z euro happened lol. Going to be tough but I guess you never know I know you guys hurting, but down here in Philly I haven’t seen a 6” snowstorm in like 4 years

Take a look at difference of the shortwaves at top of ridge from current 12z euro and 00z euro. Newer runs weakened it. I really think this is what is partly hurting us. That shortwave isn’t as strong so isn’t diving as far S. .

Excited for you DC weenies, enjoy it. Let us up N get next Saturday though, appreciate it .

I agree, I was just relating to MJO. 6z euro going to the way it did mattered, but we can still quickly reverse it at 12z .

Yep, next few suites are bigger than normal. Very tentative with that energy diving over the ridge. Yes MJO 6-18z euro runs can be wacky. I really want to see both the GFS and euro have it again at 12z and icon/cmc starting to show some phasing. Euro Ai being close again would be good as well. We’ll see .

Yeah the storm hits us day 7, but this is a phasing event where the phase happens day 4-5. We need the models to hop on fast imo. Getting close to that 84-96 hour mark. Next few model suites are huge if this is going to happen. This isn’t like Mondays event where you’re just hoping for a N or S trend based on strength of the 50/50 and main wave, this is either the event will happen or it won’t based on if it phases properly. You could get a partial phase but that likely means something like last nights GFS, Just my opinion from experience. If by 00z tonight models aren’t on board id be worried. .

Less of a phase on 6z eps, we’ll see what 12z data says, kind of disappointing after that 00z euro and 6z gfs run. Plenty of time, but like I said that phase happens around day 4-5 so not an eternity .

True, but the phase that we need for this to become a large event happens at around 96-102 hours so really not that far out. .

We really need that N stream energy to dive over that ridge quickly and start the phasing. You can see the 6z euro is just a touch slower with it and that caused it to miss the phase. .

Very tentative situation with that phase. Could go either way, obviously just a little good or bad timing goes one way or other. I’ll stick with EPS for now so hopefully we see 6z EPS hold steady .

…and then I wake up and the 6z euro misses the phase. Did not expect that either sheesh .

6z GEFS is going full out this run I think, LFG boys! .

Wow I did not expect to wake up to see that euro/eps run lol; and the 6z GFS! .

It’s mostly N stream so I bet mid Atlantic gets a decent snowstorm this run from overrunning ahead of the low .

It basically looks like the 18z euro Ai, that model has been absolutely nailing things lately .