Heisy

What an incredibly frustrating GFS and CMC run. As much as it sucks this is run after run leaving our region high and dry. Can’t discard it. I wonder what happens to the pattern after the nao block retrogrades completely and has to rebuild. Probably have a pattern relaxation and you know we’ll probably fit a rain event in there somewhere with our luck

Hey Ji this looks like it would have delivered. Need to work on the configuration of the NS. Good agreement today we’ll have a wave come east out of the -pna around day 9.

Ain’t nobody got time for that. Haha, there’s about the same odds of me plugging in my phone before bed as a 2 ft dc snowstorm. this was a solid GFS run. It looked more like the euro early on and focuses on that same wave coming out of the southwest that the EPS did

Gonna get crushed, but nice trend towards EPS and nothing like OP euro.

Happy hour mischief? Much better setup for the event the EPS was signaling

Not me. After how this winter has been I’d sign off on 12” in a heartbeat, and I live in Philly. Just give it to me in one storm and I’m good to go.

When the euro is rain/miss and the others show snow you bet your ass the others would cave. Vice versa. It’s uncanny, but I’m hanging in there. The timing of both the streams is terrible this year.

It’s a wait and see game right now. Models still varying on timing of northern and southern stream. How much energy gets buried in southwest. When/how far S does NS get. All will play a factor. Like the pattern but feel like bad timing could also screw things up a bit. Hopefully not. I thought my 76ers were getting James Harden yesterday and look what happened! Lol...can your wizards trade us Bradley Beal instead please thanks!

Yeah, but what else is there to talk about Ralph lol. New eagles coach?! James harden a sizer?! There’s not really a good shot for anything until then.

Euro has a much better 50/50 for the day 9-10 event which is why it is colder. You see on the OP gfs and cmc what happens without it. Temps would struggle as H5 ULL and HP placement isn’t ideal. Looks like a classic thump setup though. Not a great airmass yet, I think that comes the week of the 25th, but def a signal for an event on the 22-23rd, just going to rely on the placement and strength of 50/50. Lately, (most of the time anyway) the models cave to the euro so hopefully we see some colder solutions on the globals today for next week. I think the potential prime pattern setup starts Sunday the 24 through that week as -epo colder temps start seeping into the region. Get some -pna energy to start heading east with the block in place hopefully things work out.

Be careful with these types of fronts. They’re fast moving and remember the precip is what has fallen over the last 6 hours. Obviously you know that, but a lot of new members might not, just pointing it out.

18z GEFS. Sorry stormvista maps not as pretty as others

Those radar charts take me back lol

Lol. It’s still a good setup as the -PNA energy bleeds east under the block. Just need to pray the block stays as strong as pronged. I like the week of the 25th. Although I’m not discounting some snow before that if things shake out right.

Need a more neutral trough as it heads east or the northern part of the shortwave will crush it. There are a couple MECSs on the 6z individuals. GEPS likes it too. The other issue is the kicker behind it with the fast flow we’ve been having. That many big hitters on the individuals tells me there’s a small % we see some 12z changes with this event. (Crosses fingers)

00z icon brought the day 6 event up the coast. And gfs looks better so far...

With this setup we’d have a really active STJ. If that blocking is legit then there should be event after event. If the blocking isn’t real then we risk a complete failure. Was this what 94-95 had going? With that look HP should park right over the Great Lakes. Patience is running thin but hopefully today’s look stays!

12z eps goes ape with the Atlantic blocking. One of the strongest signals I’ve seen this far out on a mean. Of course we have no +PNA, but maybe an overrunning type pattern? This is 276

Man that’s one of the best atlantic Blocks I’ve seen on the eps long range mean. Quite a signal. Maybe an overrunning potential & swfe with -pna getting the stj into play? Hour 276

Agreed, but I can see it now, we get shutout until the st paddy’s day blizzard of 2021.

Who actually likes snow anyway? It’s the chase that matters :/

CMC is slightly south, gets light snow in the region, but decent H5 look

12z para has much better confluence. We might have a signal boys and gals

That ULL could be a tough one. It could actually help force things farther south or if the main storm phases and tilts the trough with it. Either way good signal so far today. Onto cmc and euro

Major storm Incoming on GFS. Nice CAD signature. Main vort staying neutral in a good spot