madwx

also its crazy that most of Kansas has not had a tornado watch yet this year.  In fact the state only had its first tornado last night.

5 hours ago, madwx said:

GFS and NAM are trending north with this weekends storm system, more in line with the Euro.  Too bad the timing isn't great for the western lakes, otherwise we could have some good storm chances.

The trend continues with the 18z NAM, further north and slower.  Makes Sunday a little more interesting

Look at how paltry tornado watches have been across the northern half of the area the past year (or couple years)

3 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Does the instability actually reach Wisconsin and Michigan?  Older runs just looked like a general rain.

the latest NAM has 500-1000 J/KG of ML CAPE over Wisconsin and Michigan early Sunday morning and has it lasting into the afternoon in Michigan.  Previous runs had the low going from the Quad Cities to Toledo, the new run has it going from La Crosse to Detroit.

GFS and NAM are trending north with this weekends storm system, more in line with the Euro.  Too bad the timing isn't great for the western lakes, otherwise we could have some good storm chances.

After the fog burned off this morning its almost all clear except for a few passing cirrus, temps warming into the 70s with a light northerly breeze.  10/10 day on tap

Getting some nice thunder tonight @CheeselandSkies

this pattern reminds me so much of something more mid summer-like (besides the temps), explosive convective growth in Iowa, modest mid and upper level winds and training thunderstorms later over Illinois.

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Indiana is doing antibody sampling, similar to what New York and some other areas have done.

Preliminary results:  2.8% of the state's population, or 186,000 people, have or had the virus as of May 1.  The confirmed number of cases as of May 1 suggests that only about 1 in 11 infections were being identified.  

The state's fatality rate comes out to 0.58%, which is in the general ballpark of what other similar antibody testing has suggested elsewhere.  About 45% of infected individuals never had symptoms.

The good news in all of this is that the spread was slowed dramatically by the measures that were taken, as our antibody results are well below what was observed in New York.  The bad news is that we have a long way to go, assuming it is true that about 97% of the state's population has not been exposed.  And I suspect the truly rural states (Indiana is not Wyoming) have had even less exposure.

https://www.wishtv.com/news/medical/study-estimates-186000-hoosiers-had-covid-19-or-antibodies-by-may/

Yeah, I've been doing calculations of how much of each state has been infected based on the fatalities and an assumed fatality rate of 0.7% and I have about 3.5% of people in Indiana infected right now which seems to match that data.  Based on that only 4 states have had more than 10% of the population infected, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts.  And 15 states have had less than 1% of people infected.

Midwestern farmers should invest in hydroponics the way rainfall has trended in the area the past 2 decades

29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Has that been doing better than the HRRR and NAM3?  I haven't really used that one yet.  

Overall I’d say better.  It doesn’t overmix like the HRRR does and has a more realistic convective representation than the 3KNAM. It’s not perfect but definitely an upgrade.  It’s nailed a couple events in the past month that the others have whiffed on 

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I have never been as happy to have a pair of adjustable weights for home use... they are those block things that can adjust to over 100 lbs each.  Easy to dedicate yourself to working out when so many places are closed lol.  I heard some people have been jacking up the prices of those things.

Honestly this pandemic has been great motivation for me to get back in shape.  With the lack of things to do/lack of places to eat out and the general fact that this hits people in poor health harder I’ve been working out more than I ever had.  Lost 20 pounds since early March and hope to keep it going 

9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/26/21193848/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths-tests-by-state

Need to chill man I'm just going off of this chart. Doesn't look to me like the average is 30K

I just got done with a good workout, I'm sitting out on the patio and I'm about to grill some dinner, I haven't been this chilled in awhile.

I don't want to antagonize, we're all in this together and you have a lot of good points, but when I see incorrect information being used and I have the correct data, I have an obligation to spread the correct information.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/  

This site has more updated values (they scrape the data daily from each states websites),  where you'll see that South Carolina is one of the laggards(along with a handful of midwestern states).  Sure South Carolina is doing some good things, like loosening the lockdown, having a reasonable reopening strategy etc. but testing ain't one of those things, and until testing is an order of magnitude better, you (and a lot of other states) won't truly be in front of this

5 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

The goal was to match the ramp up with the opening. Right now the majority of testing is being done in healthcare facilities, nursing homes and minority-heavy communities where it is disproportionately affecting them. But SC is right in line with the vast majority of states who have tested per 1M people, most are in that $15-25K range with a few outliers.

I think you guys are doing a reasonable job opening up but to say you are in line with the rest of states in testing is an outright lie,  you have the second least amount of tests per capita in the nation, the US average is 30k tests per million and there are 20 states with over 30k test per 1M so no there aren't just "a few outliers"

8 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Just thought I would post this article from today..

Fauci praises South Carolina's response to Covid-19

His exact quote is...

SC's measures in his opinion “ would optimize your capability of reopening.”

“I’d almost want to clone that and make sure other people hear about that and see what you’ve been doing"

Our department of health or DHEC is vigorously ramping up tests, hiring contact tracers, and people to maintain the database. In my opinion this is the greatest failure of the Midwest on the whole, instead of finding solutions to open reasonably with strict measures and tracking, those governors by and large have resorted in extreme measures. Why in South Carolina have we not had armed protests and death threats? Because the reasonable solutions have led to mostly reasonable responses from the public. We have curbed a spike in this disease and increased testing considerably, already have statewide antibody testing, and tonight I'm going to play in a golf league and then get BBQ with friends. That is a pipe dream in many of the Great Lakes states because the focus seems off. 

I love talking weather with you all and seeing how things are going back home, so my heart goes out to everyone for how this is affecting you guys.  My fear is the extreme measures are going to lead to greater tragedy and economic loss in an area that needs none of that.

It's a good thing y'all are ramping up testing because your current testing numbers are paltry.

HRRRv4 says wagons north, I'm gonna ride my new God tier model.  

down to 31 this morning as one last goodbye to the cold, already up to 39 at 7 am on our way to the mid 60s

btw Black River Falls hit 16 and Sparta hit 20 this morning.  crazy again for mid May

58/15 here at the moment.  Probably won't see dewpoints this low again until october or november.

it's been a slow climb through the 40s this morning.  Hoping we can at least crack the lower 50s today.  One last chance at a frost tonight before mid/upper 50s tomorrow, lows in the upper 30s tomorrow night and 60s and dews in the 40s on Wednesday

Noon temp here was 34.  Which is probably a record for the date. 

Back to rain here.  Winter 2019-20 might finally be over (the next two nights of possible frosts notwithstanding)

Turned to all wet snow here.  On May 10th.    Luckily no accumulation yet 

Looking like a chance for snow here tomorrow on the backside of the strong clipper moving through.   Will be a battle of dynamic cooling vs daytime heating here

Fort McCoy has hit 17 and Black River Falls 14 this morning.   Madison with a balmy 25 for a low