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Everything posted by madwx

  1. Hurricane Michael, 4 years ago
  2. low cuts from Omaha to Duluth, we get record high temps and a highly forced lined of storms. QLCS tornadoes galore. Fargo gets 30"
  3. That’s likely to be the dominant one. Should see it fully consolidate by 6z tonight
  4. That’s associated with the old mid level center. I’ll assume the mid and low level centers will focus around 14.3N since that’s where the convection is generating the most PV
  5. https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/data?ids=CWSA&format=decoded&date=&hours=6 Sable Island. Note that there haven't been any new METARs in an hour
  6. the cone doesn't get update during the intermediate advisories. just the full ones at 5 and 11
  7. Sable Island MSLP down to 978. Sustained winds only around 30 knots though
  8. There are some difference between how the GFS and Euro handle upper features beyond 48 hours, but staying around 15 N through tomorrow evening will give credence that a path somewhere between the GFS and Euro into the GOM is correct.
  9. the convection is tugging the center of the gyre and it seems to be heading due west now. Will have to keep an eye on how long it stays below 15 degrees. Most of the models hold it around the latitude until Saturday evening.
  10. yep, most intense blow up of convection yet on the downshear side of the circulation
  11. I'm guessing you mean Hermine? Though with the way things are going in the eastern Atlantic 98L might end up being Ian or even Julia
  12. Pretty amazing bust on the CAMs which did not predict the line of storms going through southern wisconsin
  13. Along those lines, likely the last time we’ll have dewpoints in the 70s this season in S WI
  14. About to depart CLT on a flight back to Madison. Switched to the left side of the plane to hopefully get some nice views of the storms
  15. 3.09” storm total so far MSN and MKE both broke daily rainfall records yesterday
  16. Steady rain has started here. Relatives in NW Dane County have already gotten an inch. Makes some of those crazy high totals look reachable
  17. NAM, GFS and Euro all now showing over 3" here from tomorrow evening through Monday. NAM even going a little crazy and giving all of Dane county almost 6"
  18. Looks like we may be in the bullseye of the heavy rain this weekend. The GFS and Euro both give us over 2". The NAM has been a bit more inconsistent with it's main swath
  19. Wildfire smoke finally made it here this year. Tempered highs today just in the lower 80s instead of the expected mid 80s
  20. got 1.75" yesterday, most storms have been overperforming with precip recently
  21. yeah, a few days ago it had some places only having highs in the teens in Alaska, has rebounded to showing those same places in the upper 40s to low 50s now
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