madwx

48 deaths in Wisconsin today.  The record case numbers of the past few weeks are now coming to roost

Snow Squall Warning along I80 in the Des Moines area

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Barring eradication of covid-19, hopefully the IFR gets to flu levels or like some of the more benign coronaviruses over time.

I've wondered what the IFR was of the other types of coronaviruses when they first showed up.

There are ideas that the Russian Flu in the late 1800s was actually the introduction of one of the common coronaviruses we have today.  There were a lot more neurological symptoms with it than normally occur with the flu 

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That estimated IFR is actually higher than I thought.  

Guessing it’s more around 0.5-0.7% when it’s all said and done. Started around the high end at the beginning and will get to the lower end as we get better treatments. Some states like Utah and Alaska have a CFR in that range right now 

Just now, Hoosier said:

Difference between now and the summer is that it was basically 4 or 5 states really driving the big increase.  Now it's more states.

North Dakota only has 13 ICU beds available.  The city of Bismarck only has 1 left.  I'm guessing the closest city with ICU beds is hours away

you know it's the cold season when forecast discussions talk about early evening lows with temps rising throughout the night.

I think the biggest lesson is that you can't completely eradicate the disease in western societies, so the big goals are the slow the spread by encouraging mask wearing, not allowing mass gatherings and letting people who can work from home work from home and other common sense measures to keep hospital numbers down

the ride never ends

looking like a good chance for some flurries if not outright snow N of a line from The Quad Cities to Chicago to Detroit over the next 4 or 5 days

looks like troughing last over the east for at least a week or two.  The GEFS and CFS have a relatively weak vortex through the period which goes hand and hand with the blocking pattern.

This is fun, lets do it for MSN

Record High

10 Easiest to Break

1. 51 on February 13
2. 50 on December 26
3. 50 on December 27
4. 64 on November 12
5. 47 on February 1
6. 47 on January 30
7. 47 on January 19
8. 48 on January 14
9. 50 on February 9
10. 50 on February 7

10 Hardest to break

1. 62 on December 28
2. 76 on November 7
3. 68 on February 22
4. 62 on December 20
5. 58 on January 6
6. 60 on December 24
7. 57 on January 3
8. 63 on February 12
9. 63 on February 15
10. 77 on November 1

Record Lows

10 Easiest to Break

1. -10 December 12
2. -13 February 14
3. -14 February 15
4. -16 January 1
5. -19 January 27
6. -9 February 26
7. -19 February 6
8. -16 December 30
9. -16 December 31
10. -11 December 6

10 Hardest to Break

1. -37 January 30
2. -20 February 28
3. -14 November 28
4. -28 December 24
5. -26 December 27
6. -22 December 9
7. -11 November 29
8. 0 November 5
9. 1 November 7
10. -7 November 21
11. **Bonus** -29 March 1 (which is an amazing 15 degrees colder than any other record low in the month of March.  Must have been some radiational cooling)

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Louisiana is trying to do its best Florida 2004 impersonation.

Looks like a chance for more development in the Western Caribbean after 10/15, but climo says that should stay east of Louisiana 

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Euro and CFS are not only an overall torch for the rest of Oct, but also for Nov as well.

 

Biggest torch month on Euro is actually Jan.

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The Euro winter prog was not the greatest look.

If that's the case I'll have started the most popular thread in forum history.   My only hope is for more moisture, in whatever form.  I can handle warm if there are storms to track

4 minutes ago, Danny8 said:

Low of 35 in my backyard, but frost in the center of Horner Park on Chicago's northwest side. Thought it was a pretty good example of a park being somewhat of an oasis in the urban heat island.  The grass on the edges of the park was only dewy but frost in the center.

Sorry for the dementor shadow

very neat.  microclimates always interest me.  Reminds me of driving around my town at night when I was younger and the car thermometer would bounce around by 5+ degrees

With all the COVID talk and the fact that we're weeks into Fall already we need a fresh start on this board.

This upcoming week is going to be lovely but the lack of rain/severe this fall has been disappointing.  Hoping with can get some dynamic fall systems toward the end of the month that can bring some rain/wind/severe and backside snow.

down to 31 here this morning.  First frost and freeze of the season

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would not at all be surprised if things have to be tightened up again eventually.  I think we can avoid the amount of lockdowns that we had in the winter/spring.  As evidenced by what happened in the United States and some other countries over the summer, the seasonality component is not as pronounced as the flu, but it still appears to be a factor.  With more cases comes a higher likelihood of somebody walking into a restaurant or bar or some other place where masking is difficult, thus causing more spread.  

lockdowns aren't really practical at this point in terms of limiting spread.  Really two things can help things from getting out of hand, rapid testing like the kind that was approved by the WHO today and no large indoor events.  

7 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

It's time to shut this down folks

 shut down the bad math and lack of fact checking that pervades our media.  I agree

1 hour ago, CoachLB said:

Okay 

Lol still not understanding the difference between percent and ratio.  I just used that same chart to prove what was wrong with the numbers. Look on the left side.   Infection fatality ratio.  

6 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Considering out of the 7 million confirmed infections there’ve been 200,000 deaths, which leads to an infection fatality ratio of 2.8%, I don’t think those numbers you posted are related to COVID. 

see my post above with the actual CDC data.  Fox News was using bad math

36 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

classic misinterpretation of the percentage or as some people like to say today, fake news.   The actual data is in a ratio but this mainstream media org just slapped a percent at the end instead of moving the decimal two places to the right like you should when converting from a ratio to a percent.  so it's really .003% for 0-19, 0.02% from 20-49, 0.5% for 50-69 and 5.4% for 70+.  

56 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I just noticed last night's run stopped at 384, but the night before went to 840. Only the 00z though.

i think it takes awhile to load.  so it might be many hours before 384-840 come in

hit 90 in parts of central Iowa.  Wonder if some places further east can hit that tomorrow.

41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So obviously there has been a lot of attention on older people and those with comorbidities being at greater risk of serious illness, but what about an individual's risk profile changing throughout the year?  I haven't heard much about that.

In particular, for people living in northern climates, is your risk of a more significant case elevated in the colder months when you are more likely to have lower vitamin D levels?  After all, D is one thing that is thought to play a key role in immune health.

Living in the upper midwest, especially if I had darker skin I would be taking daily vitamin D supplements.  I'm as pale as a ghost but I'm still taking daily vitamin D.

everything in the house gets a pinkish hue around 5 each night.  pretty cool