luckyweather

Still from video I took of the warned rotation in the notch in SE Rock County WI around a half hour ago, the greened up corn + the sunset made it majestic.

now ilx has it with Pana polygon

supposedly tog Palmer, IL outside of the Taylorsville, IL warning polygon.

92 stl 60 pia is just so wild to stare at in late June.

haven’t read this am’s and yet but yesterday pm lot afd ack’d this and basically said the strength of the low may aide in overcoming this

overnight d2

New D2 Tor Outlook. Seems like SW WI always gets the bullseye these days.

4th times the charm here between Roscoe and Rockton. All 4 roads in and out of my hood are closed, trees and power lines littering the roads. No power, no internet, partying like it’s 1899.

Damn man, close call there. Saw it hit from water tower webcam. Was legit. Looked like it was swallowing the town.

as of now if you target S. WI seems like platteville -> msn -> west bend is where I’d set up shop. probably platteville and watch development from there.

WPC md out for our leftovers tonight edit: maybe more than leftovers for the lucky. With adequate destabilization taking place, ongoing storms over northeast IA will likely continue eastward. These storms have shown some organization into linear segments and at least weak storm scale rotation already. Additional storm development (possibly more discrete) is likely ongoing across northern IL. With storm coverage expected to increase with time, a severe risk appears plausible. A WW may be needed.

SE of Madison around 6:30 just after the first cell went through. I’m not 100% certain if this was from today’s cell or an earlier storm as there was a notable lack of water on the road.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary boundary extending from central/northern IA into southern/central WI, with an additional composite outflow boundary farther south from northeast IA into northern IL. Over the next few hours, continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass (upper 60s dewpoints) should erode remaining inhibition at the base a substantial EML, resulting in the development of strong surface-based buoyancy (upwards of 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). As this occurs, initial thunderstorm development is expected across parts of central/eastern IA near the intersecting boundaries by around 19-22Z -- aided by a subtle frontal wave tracking eastward along the quasi-stationary boundary. The strongly unstable air mass coupled with 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor rapid thunderstorm organization/intensification into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Initially, very large to giant hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts will be the main concern with potentially splitting supercells -- given a mostly straight hodograph. However, a south-southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen across the area later this afternoon into the evening and likely favor a transition to dominant right-moving supercells with a quickly increasing tornado risk. The strong buoyancy and 200-300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support strong to intense tornadoes with any longer-lived supercells, along with a continued risk of giant hail and severe gusts. Eventually, thunderstorms may have a tendency of growing upscale into clusters with eastward extent, which will yield an increasing risk of damaging wind swaths.

pretty brutal situation in Colorado, granite peak in WI has a substantially better base than the CO Rockies resorts. My kids were doing unsanctioned pond skimming in the random ponds that were forming all over Vail last week.