lee59
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Everything posted by lee59
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It's time for me to check the radar and other observations, more than the models. It's nowcast time.
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Look I hope your correct but with ocean temperatures well into the 40s and a low near the coast or even slightly inland, how does Long Island get over a foot of snow. We need the low offshore with a Northeast wind, not an east wind which is what it will be if the GFS is correct. Hopefully the Euro stays more offshore and ends up being correct
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If the low is SW of me and it is December with milder water temps., I'm very concerned. I hope the GFS is wrong.
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I think if the low is where the GFS places it, the only hope for snow is a quick front end. A low over Delaware is going to give coastal areas a more east wind than Northeast, that means ocean air. Maybe some more snow as it pulls away.
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The models like the GFS that have a low pressure over Delaware is not where you want it if you live on Long Island. It would seem to me that would bring in a more easterly wind and onshore ocean air.
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The forecast for south shore beaches in Nassau County is about 2-3 inches of snow. The forecast for the north shore of Nassau County is about 12 inches.
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I guess that's the frustrated way of saying no
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Yea unless their is plenty of back end snow, I don't see Islip getting more than say LaGuardia.
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Regardless of the mixing potential at the coast, I think the front end snows still look to bring at least 6 plus inches of snow to most of Long Island.
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Latest GFS showing a foot for the metro area?
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Snow lovers in that area are going to be real happy or real mad. Would not want to make that forecast.
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The Philly area has not had an inch of snow in some 650 days. The models are showing areas some 15 miles south of Philly getting almost nothing with this storm and some 15 miles NW of Philly getting near a foot.
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With such short distances between areas that get crushed and those that lose out, it should be an interesting storm to watch unfold. There may be a lot of disappointed people and or a lot of very happy people.
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At this point in my area, I am expecting a good front end thumping and then a mix or change to sleet, drizzle, freezing rain and so on. Probably 6-10 inches.
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Getting a little concerned about the rain/snow line in coastal areas.
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Yea the strong high to the north should help create good gradient winds.
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Ok. I'm just thinking a good Nor'easter has a barometric pressure dropping through the 990s to the 980s.
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One thing that has me wondering, if this is a good nor'easter. Why do some models have the storm weakening as it moves off the coast.
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I think so, also.
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I wouldn't really call it a bust because the high snow totals were some 4-5 days out. If you get your hopes to high that far out, you will bust a lot. Even now there is still so much time to do most anything. We still have a good storm to track and the uncertainty is what makes it so interesting.
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I think some front end decent snow totals are likely even with a change to rain at the coast.
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I agree. There is no doubt the models have been looking good and it is fine to make predictions on sites like this but a little early when talking to hundreds of thousands or millions of people. After all a 50 mile move north or south with the storm can make a huge difference and were still some 4 or 5 days out.
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Channel 4 NBC really going out on a limb. Already mentioning a foot of snow for city and surrounding area.
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I would say one concern is that the high weakens some or moves further east, allowing the low to be more Northwest. Gfs latest run seems to be a little to far northwest for a big coastal snow. Wouldn't take much to change that.