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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Last winter, we didn't even see many winter storms on modeling, even d+10. Well, the 12z GFS pretty much builds a glacier in some areas. Is it right? Probably not at that level, but storms are showing up around the 10th. @tnweathernutmentioned that in a recent post.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I don't think Miller Bs help any of us....I was just explaining the snowpack over the Midwest. Hybrids work up here though.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Merry Christmas (Eve....24th run) from your favorite ext global ensembles....2x 46day and 1x35day snow maps. Euro control is picking up on two storms - Jan 12th and Jan 22nd. When snow gets to the Panhandle....usually a good thing on modeling. Modeling definitely is keying on an inland runner Miller A primary track with likely some Miller B thrown in as well. Snow pack to our north means cold air could return in a hurry if the MJO will allow it or the NAO locks. No idea if correct, but enjoy!
  4. Carvers Gap
    Whew. The 12z GFS just put it on TRI for Fri/Sat.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS full-run snow map....
  6. Carvers Gap
    Plenty to track before this timeframe, but this is worth a share. Here is how we escape from a bad Pac. The big red ball is in the right place.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Blizzard warnings have been raised over the Plains. That, in turn, sets the stage for a colder pattern over our area to be ushered in later this week..
  8. Carvers Gap
    If we get an NAO(and the SER doesn't hook into it which is shown on one model his AM....can't remember which, maybe the GEPS???), we have a chance maybe to just keep seasonal temps in place which will work in January Overall, nice model runs overnight with things to track prior to MJO questions....
  9. Carvers Gap
    SSW order of probability: 1. Asia 2. Western NA 3. Eastern NA With the Nino in place, our chances are much higher. The last one affected the western 2/3 of the forum area due to Nina and a stout SE ridge. There is an eastern ridge in LR modeling around d15, and the MJO really likes the warm phases (snail's pace)...so it could drop into the Rockies for about a 20-30 day time frame, and return during the first week or second week of Feb to the East. When it finally comes east, I doubt there is a SER to stop it...and the cold goes all of the way to the coast w/ cold centered over the Apps last of Jan through all of Feb.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Party comes to an end around the 10th, before a likely long pause in winter....hope we can score prior to that. MJO begins to really work around us. Though oddly, the surface maps are still cold as NA really starts to cool off during the first half of January.
  11. Carvers Gap
    That has to be strat split stuff.........that is a bonafide Arctic outbreak on the GFS late in the run, and the CMC has it inside of 10 days.
  12. Carvers Gap
    12z suite is making me want to go build a fire in the fireplace...man.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Latest outlooks. Seasonal will work in Jan/Feb. Drought predicted to persist in middle and western areas of the forum north of I-40.
  14. Carvers Gap
    This is what we are tracking.....
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS has a coastal storm signal around the 28/29th. Zero idea if it will be cold enough or if placement will be decent, but the weak low placement is there. There is also a stronger signal after 300. I think we have our chances through the 10th, and then my concerns grow considerably in terms of an extended warm-up. One MJO plot had the MJO taking 6-7 days per phase once into the warm phases. Considering there are roughly 4 warm phases.....Going to need some help. That could happen - see conversations on the previous page. That said, the MJO has been a decent predictor again this winter so far. We need to score between Christmas and Jan10, or a long wait might be in store. February would likely have the MJO hit the mother load of cold phases FWIW.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Whew, I hate to can-kick to Feb. That rarely works out, but can-kicking did during 09-10 - but we had an early start there that moderated(no such thing this winter). And when I say crawling, I am talking 15 days just to get through the first half of the warm MJO phases. But HLB could counter balance that. The set-up would be the dam breaking by the first or second week of Feb. I do think I remember also that phase 3 of the MJO isn't bad for North Carolina @GaWx . Main concern with a strat split is that really only helps later in Jan. But we will see....this seems like a winter that when it gets cold, it may find a way to stay that way or at least seasonal.
  17. Carvers Gap
    If we are not to lose a large chunk of our best climatology(and assuming the MJO plots are right about 20-25 day rotation through the warm phases), there will have to be a counter balance. There are times when we have stayed cold during warm phases of the MJO(maybe 95-96?). It is rare, but it can happen. This winter kind of has that feel that we could buck the MJO. JB mentioned the -AO could counter the MJO. I have no idea it that happens, but the Weeklies do hint at that.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies reflect many of the MJO indices which take the MJO and absolutely crawl through the warm phases - like a 20-25 day crawl or more. Hoping that isn't real. If it is, we get about ten days to start January which are good, and then burn about 3 weeks of prime winter w/ a trough out West.
  19. Carvers Gap
  20. Carvers Gap
    Whew, ensembles are cold this afternoon. The GEPS is an icebox.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Not really, but it would be rare not to have it at some point. Mid January would be my best guess. Modeling diverges a bit after the first week of January with some runs trying to pull the trough into the West for a couple of weeks while others counter that with a -NAO(more of a nationwide cold-ish outbreak). Overnight extended modeling(weeklies) were the warmer version, but really with it still being almost three weeks away...anything is on the table with recent model flips. The MJO is forecast to hit the warm phases during the middle weeks of January(and crawl through them), but who knows. Now, the BOMM stalls the MJO in cold phases. If the MJO stalls there, that would be more than stellar. MJO forecasts this winter have been turrriiiiblllle. Cosgrove thinks a mid Jan thaw, and I would have a hard time disagreeing with that. But to get a thaw, we have to see some cold first which we should. Now, the Holy Grail, is to get cold while the MJO is in the warm phases...and the Euro Weeklies do indeed try that mid-court bank shot. Like LC, I do like late Jan into Feb. Days are getting longer which is not great, but with so many coastals of late...have to think somebody in our forum makes bank if so. If the MJO plot is correct, we rotate into colder phases during our stormiest time of winter (late Jan/early Feb). So, with a thaw showing up in Jan....maybe some SER will accompany that. Maybe the bigger story is the NAO showing up in the longer range. That block would produces sliders and prevent cutters, and could mute the MJO. So, if we don't get a mini-SER, the NAO would maybe be the next best thing.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Between the tourists (used to not be that many) and the weather, it can get crazy at 5,000’!
  23. Carvers Gap
    Funny quote from the MA thread. Someone asked if the volcano in Iceland would help or hurt our snow chances. One response said that molten lava could be a problem.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Nice squall just moved through. Heavy snow showers w/ 1/8mi visibility and winds 25-30mph(gusting stronger). We now officially have snow on the ground - probably a dusting to maybe a tenth or two.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The HRRR, 3K NAM, and RGEM all handled this pretty well.
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