Carvers Gap

Haha. I am tickled that we have a snow thread on November 10th. @fountainguy97that 2014-2015 went on to be really, really good. You and John caught this synoptic setup early on. Generally, this is a money setup for NW flow w/ the shortwave. The Euro absolutely nailed this from way out.....I agree, @John1122. Fun to be tracking a system so early.

Same. That shortwave is what has interested me. It has been strong on modeling for several days. We picked up a burst here on Knob Creek in JC which made the ground white a few mins ago.

@Holston_River_Ramblerthe NW flow streamer off of Bays Mtn can be seen this AM. I drove through it on the way to JC. It is cranking. For anyone else, just look for the streamer SE of Kingsport along I26. I hit the stream right at Gray which is where it often sets up.

Very light dusting here in Kingsport on the roof tops and mulch. Shortwave on the 6z RGEM looks strong as Holston noted.

Haha. The CFSv2 is straight up frigid w/ its seasonal run today - bone chilling. February was just ridiculous.

Great post, and a great analog. Pretty amazing to see that type of correlation.

The Euro weeklies are crazy cold on the control run and very cold on the mean run. The Euro control drops a large amount of snow over the Tenn Valley for December. Now....we have seen the Euro be too cold for December. It is still shoulder season, but we take today's run and run with it.

The 12z CMC has a general 2-3" of snow over the Plateau and 6-12" over the Smokies. NW slopes in the foothills should see some snow as well - time of day dependent.

All of that to say, I think chances are increasing for high elevation snow and lower elevation snow showers in the foothills in prime NW flow areas around Nov 10-11. Either way, it should be very cold with afternoon wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s in many places.

The 12z CMC vs yesterday's 12z CMC run is night and day different at 500. It is now almost identical to the Euro today at 12z. The GFS popping that low tells me that model is moving bigly to the Euro. We will see. Lots of support for the Euro solution where it had almost none yesterday with the exception of the 12z GEFS ensemble.

The 12z RGEM now has the system in range and has healthy bands of snow, rain/snow mix, and rain showers over the eastern half of the forum area - just like the Euro has had run-after-run for days. I am honestly surprised to see the Euro hold after missing so much last season and it being shoulder season.

The 12z CMC now brings the backside energy in the form of heavy snow showers on NW flow...complete cave by it.

Pretty interesting development on the 12z GFS and a fair amount of change. It pops a low over the Piedmont of North Carolina as opposed the northern stream dominate solutions it previously had. If true, the Euro(if it doesn't flip at 12z) has scored a "1 vs everybody" coup.

The November Euro seasonals are in. January looks decent. December could likely be colder than what it depicts, ESPECIALLY if the Euro weeklies from today are correct. Those weeklies look frigid through mid month. Warm Feb-April. But if we get Dec-Jan, we take it an run.

With snow cover in the foothills and higher elevations, most models(not the GFS) have temps 25 to almost 40 degrees below normal on those days.

The Euro is a bit deeper with this. The GFS deterministic is still further north but trending south. Interestingly, the GEFS lockstep with the Euro. Either way, this is a quick cold shot which means business. If the winter remembers what happens in November, we should see this reoccur.

The 12z Euro is leading the way on this 9-10th system. I can't say that gives me a lot of comfort as I have grown to trust the GFS in handling systems a bit better over the SE. I would guess this might amp up as we get closer and IF the system continues to create this type of energy in the lee of the Apps.

During the 70s, 80s, and 90s I rarely saw snow before Christmas. But my parents remember lots of snows in the 60s which were early. It certainly seems that early arriving winters are more normal now with February being less storm - kind of traded one for the other. Just a quick update so I don't have to post twice. The Euro continues to advertise a rather vigorous wave w/ the 9-11th cold shot. The GFS and CMC not so much. The Euro makes the most sense as that is a very common occurrence when cold are arrives which is that strong. Something to continue watching.

We had a forum prior to AmWx. It was basically the people from this site, but closed down. We were in the SE forum then. When we switched, the owners of this site graciously gave us our own forum. There are lots of storm threads in SE forum thread of the other site, even for our area. Eastern Weather I "think" was its name. I do think they archived it, but I am not sure where it is. It would be great to archive our stuff for the TN Valley and make it like a library. I am not sure how proprietary rights would work with that. But at least we would have a backup. Eastern just went off line one day, and never came back. Lost all of it.

The 18z GEFS 500 sigma has it yet again, and is now stronger. Something to watch. I have prob posted too much about it, but these types of systems can be potentially fun to track. Need to get inside of four days to really get a good feel for this. Sometimes northern stream energy will trend northward over time, and the phase is missed. Right now, we want the trend on the GFS operational to be slower and a bit deeper. The GFS being too fast is a bias just as much as the Euro being too slow.

Sure looks like the 18z has held back the energy on this run and sped up the energy flowing underneath. It probably won't get to 12z Euro levels, but that is a big step at 500.

@Mr Bob, @PowellVolzis locked out of his account again. If you can give him a hand, it would be hugely appreciated by Powell. Thank you!

MRX from this afternoon.... Ridging builds back in Thursday afternoon with warmer temperatures and quasi-zonal flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.. A more progressive trough will approach the Mississippi Valley by late Friday with an associated surface low pressure near the Great Lakes. A cold front will move eastward across the forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. A few rounds of shortwaves will strengthen the upper-level trough across the region Sunday night into Monday. Deterministic and ensemble members are in good agreement even this far out from the weekend. The LREF indicates about a 70+ percent chances of temperatures less than 32 degrees across the valley next Monday night, which is a fairly strong signal this far out for a widespread freeze. With northwest orographic flow and 850mb temperatures below 0C, some light snowfall will be possible for higher elevations above 4000 ft across the mountains. A significant return of cold air appears likely early to mid next week bringing an early taste of winter.

Noticeable trend southward on 12z ensembles. Something to watch, but it is a great example of why looking at 500 maps tells the story. IF(stress IF) that holds, somebody would likely get hammered by that. Definitely will be watching this for a few days. Huge grains of salt as climatology really doesn't support snow this early, but Fountain mentioned a great example above of this actually occurring. It is uncanny how close those maps look. I will be interested to see the trends. Also interesting, 2014-15 turned out to be a great winter. I bet the QBO dipped around then off the top of my head.