Carvers Gap

Check out this storm evolution....This is the west side of the cone at this point. That slp track is nearly perfect for E TN. Not trying to leave out our middle and western folks, but this is the track of a huge storm. Again, I think this is an outside chance for E TN....but models have been hinting at this possibility.

The 12z GEM would be a winter storm for the northern Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, NE TN, and WNC at minimum. The ingredients are there. I am not sure it can get back this far west, but the GEM shows one path towards that. This has a chance to be a monster on the coast.

The 12z GEM dumped 72" over portions of DELMARVA.....I have been watching this system for a few days. The 12z GFS backed west but is no threat here, but the trend matters. Not sure it can get back this far w/ 100 hours to go, but the GEM is potent over E TN, especially the mountains. However, lower elevations would be impacted by that solution.

The 12z Canadian is a slightly inland runner or coastal hugger depending on your perspective. Worth watching.

Wow. Weather is such an amazing thing to follow.

I want an 8" dusting of snow. Seriously, we have been watching this cam all day, and just amazed. I cannot imagine the Donner Party in that. Sadly, I think they have a bunch of skiers We just need a "wow" response.

Is that Fiebiger?

Right on time. Absolutely white out conditions on the Wooly cam.

Jed, I would love to see four feet of snow in two days. One day, I am gonna make the trip when the atmospheric river cuts loose out there. I have already told my family that exact thing! John, 4" per our is just incredible. It is humming right now.

Yes, they are closed today. Other than the obvious, the real danger is skiing in deep snow on ungroomed trails. Tree wells and falling off the edge of groomed areas....one can just get buried and suffocate. Plus, right now, they won't operate lifts with that wind. It is absolutely insane right now. We stayed (this summer) about four apartment complexes down the road from the Mammoth cam and it is just crazy how little you can see in that wind driven snow. Pretty much whiteout conditions at 9,000'. I can't imagine what it is between 12,000-14,000' in the Sierra.

Check this Mammoth cam out.... https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

The 12z GEM and GFS are portraying a track which wouldn't take much to make it really interesting. Thanks @Math/Metfor the Google AI run. Wow.

Mammoth was WILD last night!!! The 6z AIFS Euro has a "north of I40" track for the storm we have been discussing. I think it is likely more of a KY storm w/ wrap around, upslope snow here....but that is a pretty big shift. It went from nothing to something for snow.

I am beginning to think that there is some connection between snow and Mammoth and cold temps here about 1-2 weeks later.

The problem w/ the Euro all winter is that it's too dry. With both the GFS and CMC showing the strong potential for strong amplification....I think we at minimum see an upslope event for northwest facing slopes. BTW....go check out the Mammoth webcams. 4-8' w/ this storm. 100mph winds on top. Even by there standards, this is decent gig. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Yeah, that is a pretty big pattern reversal being shown across 12z modeling. Both the 12z GFS and Euro are close to something decent. At the very least, winter temps are back on the map by next Sunday....and then more thereafter. It is uncanny how close that is to this last cold evolution from Christmas to January 11th.

Bitterly cold air is potentially making it into the pattern by late next weekend. I am see BZ wind chills for the mountains and single digit or low teens for the valleys. With strong amplification involved....I have to think we are about to see some sort of repeat of late January - at least the possibility is growing.

U all been looking at model output over the last three runs?.......................

For me, it looks like a potentially big cold shot coming at some point during March. That isn't really earth shattering news, but just trying to time it is going to be the tough part. The CFSv2 has it at 6z and the Euro Weeklies mean has March being progressively colder. You all know your own climatology. Folks in NE TN and the Plateau can score well into early April. March snow is not an anomaly IMBY, though it has been during La Nina. I am really excited that maybe this summer won't be ridiculously hot w/ the onset of El Nino and same for fall. Jury is out on next winter. If the El Nino is moderate or strong, I will roll w/ a torch for DFJ. If it is weak, I will roll with December warm, and January and February seasonal but snow chances. The strength of the El Nino is crucial. Sometimes lately, even a weak El Nino is torchy here.

The 0z Euro was really amplified towards the end of the month. I think there is a window there from say Feb 24-March10. It fits the pattern we have seen all winter. Warms up here. Mammoth gets blitzed. We get a brief cold shot which is followed by another short warm-up....then the hammer comes down for a couple of weeks.

The 18z GFS yet again advertises a snow storm inside of d10 around Feb 21....slider.

The Sierra Nevada got hammered on Christmas. 18 days later, we went into the tank w/ temps. I think we get colder a bit sooner than that, but check this out... Mono County- Including the cities of Lee Vining, Bridgeport, Mammoth Lakes, and Coleville 1106 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations between 15 to 30 inches west of Highway 395, with 2 to 4 feet in the high Sierra. This includes locations such as Conway Summit, Lee Vining, June Lake, Mammoth Lakes, and Toms Place. 8 to 18 inches near and east of Highway 395, such as Bridgeport, Walker, Bodie, and Benton. Lesser amounts of 2 to 4 inches for the Chalfant Valley. Winds gusting 35 to 45 mph, with up to 65 mph for wind prone locations along US-395. Sierra ridge gusts over 100 mph.

The 18z GFS(and GFS in general) has been trying to cook something up. As we approach shoulder season, it is a vastly more competitive as a model.

I think the cold is just on the outside edge of deterministic guidance. On an interesting note, and so I don't have to post twice, @John1122the Sierra Nevada is about to get absolutely hammered. The Mammoth webcams should be incredible. Some models are spitting out 200-300" over the next 16 days depending on the run and model. That is good for them as fire season would be terrible in the Sierra without water. I am sure they are thrilled. Interestingly, we got very cold about 2-3 weeks after their big Christmas snows.

I should add that spring is tricky as the 500 pattern would allow for more severe cold(reference maps above), but eventually spring will win. Not as much of a sure bet as say the post Thanksgiving cold shot and January cold shot were. We still have lakes and ponds which are frozen up here. I still have snow on the north side of my house.