Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Thanks, Coach. When you loop that exact map, you can see the cold just hitting the west side of the Apps and draining into our area.
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The 18z NAM is colder as well. If you switch to run-2-run for temp changes...you can see the cold actually rotate down in front of the high and into the front side of the incoming storm. Starts about hour 36. You can see it warmup over the top of the storm as in rolls across the US.
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And any snow cover may make it difficult to get those temps above freezing. Yes...I had just posted the same thing. Good catch.
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I would strongly suggest you all also use the ensembles. They have some interesting things embedded...a bit more snow. The 12z EPS shifted the snow axis about 1.5 counties south. The beginning of the Euro was also colder...sometimes the beginning of the scenario is more accurate due to it being closer in time...if it continues to cool and move precip southward near the start time in Texarkana...could be a sign the model is adjusting on the fly. We have seen that entry point into our forum change like that....and it has big implications down stream. I think for NE TN, we see 2-3" of snow followed by ice...know your microclimate. Also, interestingly....models are not showing a lot of mercy to the foothills regions w/ downslope.
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Maybe.
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Welp. Guess we are now tracking an ice storm.
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At 80, the Euro has 39 at TRI and 16 in NW Tenn....Similar to recent La Nina storms.
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Guessing run out moisture followed by a low which cuts just based on temps....I can see those pretty far out into the run on WxBell. Just toggle over.
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Gonna almost assuredly cut...but was much cooler to start that run. Pretty big change in temp prior to roughly 65 hours - as in lower over the entire eastern half of the country.
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Hmmm.
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WSW posted now for all of Tennessee.
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Yeah, I'll jump over in the long term thread in a bit to discuss. I have to go get my run in!
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The 12z UKMET is two waves as well. First wave is winter. Second wave is a cutter.
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Nothing quite like thunderstorms falling into temps which are below freezing over North Carolina.
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@Daniel Boone....take a look at the GFS and you can see the consequences of a stronger system this weekend. Give me some of that d10 GFS.
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Not sure there will be a ton of snowpack. It will depend on that first wave. If the first wave can deliver, many of us will see some snow before the ice. But for now(and I mean this exact moment at 11:44AM on Jan21), ice is the story IMHO. When you first watch the GEM, it looks remarkably similar to the GFS. The second wave is where they differ. As Jeff noted, reality is probable somewhere in the middle between the GEM and GFS.
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12z GEM and GFS maps.
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The 12z GEM is also a two wave event. It is a tick flatter with the first wave, and then similar w/ the second w/ the cutter. True over running event as well.
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This could easily be just ebb and low the model...but the onset for the GEM has more snow north of I-40. The GEM is for sure south by a tick until it cuts after hour 87.
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Strong rates falling into below freezing temps is not without precedent.
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The 12z GEM is an ice storm for the eastern 2/3 of the forum. I have barely looked at the synoptics as I was watching the GFS.
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So, snow w/ the first wave(prior to this slide). Then, it is a classic overrunning event w/ waves just riding the west-east gradient. The last of the energy kicks out and that low in the Panhandle transfers its energy to the low at Hatteras. E TN ends w/ heavy snow. 12-14" of snow for areas about 50 miles north of the Tenn state line - statewide. Has to be crazy amounts of ice south of it. I am only describing the model....I make ZERO claim as to its accuracy and not sure I even agree w/ it. However, that is a plausible scenario if the low doesn't consolidate and the high is strong. I continue to struggle to believe that it is going to rain w/ a 1050 hp leading this off...but I know it can happened. IF that is the likely evolution of the system...just about zero chance this is even remotely nailed down.
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Haha. An inland runner out of all of that.
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And now we wait for what appears to be an inland runner at 108. Absolutely no way any model would have this worked out quiet yet...if that is even real. The 12z ICON is very similar to the GFS FWIW.
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Haha. So much fun. At 102, there is the ICON's Panhandle slp w/ frozen precip over the forum area...ice to sleet to snow the further one heads to NW TN.
