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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Reminds me of 17-18 at the end of December. JB mentioned that the last half of February might have a strong STJ component along w/ cold. I tend to agree with him though I haven't looked at the Weeklies today. I kind of think nickel and dime stuff is the rule for right now. It is crazy cold with low wind chills outside right now. I really don't even want to think about the weekend cold!
  2. Carvers Gap
    That looks reasonable, but I would still cut maybe 50% of my totals in western Sullivan Co. I think the mountains are gonna get hammered due to orographic lift. Anywhere w/ good NW facing slopes could score. This "should" wring out every, last drop. Bitterly cold air masses have held surprises in NE TN. I don't like the 18z GFS trends, but the 18z RGEM looks reasonable. Anyone know when these vortices and air masses are over NA where they get sampled better? I think Tellico noted we would see one last truncation w/ that. I agree.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Knoxville has been beating us pretty badly of late - way more during the past 4-5 years. This current pattern is definitely a pattern we can score with in NE TN. No idea if that actually happens. I just don't like the dynamics w/ this current setup. I have been burned both ways - it over performing or under performing. A strong low on a cold front is notoriously tough to forecast. The partial phase I don't think is worked out quite yet. But I do agree...a strong ULL crashing into NE TN will often produce light snow regardless of setup...the bigger amounts I don't trust. Lighter amounts appear probable.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I would guess you are good, and fair point. Some of this is homegrown dynamics w/ the ULL. However, the runs w/ the big amounts appear to be grabbing an Atlantic fetch. I am beyond skeptical of that.
  5. Carvers Gap
    We could score…I just am not sold on this set up. And I freely admit I have been wrong and will be wrong again. Hopefully, we score!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Like a B movie. It is the first model to roll and nothing else is showing.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEM-para illustrates the concern pretty well. It has light snow, but that is about it. It did well with the last system. Generally, I have tossed the GFS in my thinking. It was badly wrong w/ the last system over NE TN. The GEM-para was very good.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The risk w/ this is the snow cuts off right at the spine of the Apps.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Models have continued to denote a very sharp cutoff over E TN, and MBY is not immune to that either. I still do not trust modeling with this storm. I have seen this type of setup go "poof" even as the storm is ongoing. We need that slp tucked to the west of Hatteras. If it isn't, no matter how much models try to make it happen.....the system usually can't get past the foothills on the west slopes. I won't say it is fool's gold. I think we have a chance at some light snow, but that SLP is waaaaay over there on the coast. Even for NE TN, this is gonna take some work to get snow here. My confidence remains low in how this is portrayed.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The good think is the NAM at range is still the NAM at range.
  11. Carvers Gap
    That map is a winner. SLP over southern Louisiana and Mississippi. A cold hp over the top. That cold front dragging into the Gulf is often a spark as well.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z RGEM is muy bueno.
  13. Carvers Gap
    After all of that warmth to start the month, the cold has erased almost all of it. TRI is only +0.4 with likely four cold days left still to input. TRI should finish BN for temps this month but within the seasonal norm range...which is astounding to me after how warm it was to start the month. It is very difficult to erase 3 days of mid 60s temps in the norms. It very well could bring the overall winter average to almost exactly normal to this date - December and January combined. Some wild swings to be be able to pull that off.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The closer to the spine of the Apps that one lives and north of I40.....that is the sweet spot for now. BTW, that is not me. I am roughly in the same boat as Knoxville in hoping for storm trends. I am on the far west side of TRI.
  15. Carvers Gap
    For sure...This is too finesse for my liking. It may well work out, but the cutoffs for this are going to be rough for some folks. Very steep gradient between snow and no snow in some areas. Just kind of has the feel of one that stops at the NC line w/ some light snow west of the Apps and heavy snow to the East. DC to NC snow axis is generally good in E TN. Hatteras to Boston has given me many headaches.
  16. Carvers Gap
    For TRI folks, the trend on some modeling is that the energy is further west, and that causes the precip to drop south without pivoting over us. That shifts the pivot further south and west. Unfortunately, I think some areas(if this is a true possibility) will be rooting for different trends. At TRI, we do not want this phasing any further west than it is(per the NAM). One whiff scenario for TRI is that the energy phases further west as it drops south. The entire storm pivots under TRI, and then up the coast. For now, the 6z RGEM remains steady w/ its depictions as does the 6z Euro, 6z AIFS, and 6z GFS. The 6z NAM would 100% be a problem for TRI.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I have seen systems like this stop right at the crest of the Apps. I do think we see some light snow from the northern stream. I remain unconvinced this gets enhanced by the Atlantic...for most of E TN (edit). Backing would help prolong the light snow. I think those high end amounts are incredibly unlikely unless that slp shifts to the coast or just inland. I could see far E TN counties benefiting for sure due to orographic lift. This looks like "an east of I81" type of storm - so far. Tomorrow likely dials in this track. Need some big moves overnight for anyone west of the foothills to score more than 1-2" with this.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Bout right there. I rarely get good snows in IMBY from a slp east of Hatteras. I still tend to think this is going to have to be home cooked northern stream energy at the end of the day - IF that is the slp location. But sometimes we get that lee side low which backs precip. For me, this is a little too finesse for my liking. Just need a good ol' fashioned low cranking 50 miles inland. Any energy handoff is almost always a problem for E TN.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Any maps yet?
  20. Carvers Gap
    Deciphering the weather posts of Bouncycorn was not on my bingo card for today.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 18z EPS had ticked up as has the 18z GEFS FWIW.
  22. Carvers Gap
    My rule of thumb…get the slp west of Cape Hatteras if we want help from the coast in E TN. Otherwise, we need lift from the west slopes of the mountains. I still wouldn’t discount a LSL…anyone see it? Lee side low
  23. Carvers Gap
    And that “should” bring precip with it if other cold winters are used as analogs. I don’t trust the coastal enhancement, but I do like light snow from the northern stream with high ratios. If this turns into a NE blizzard, NE TN and SW VA often finds themselves in that axis even if just light amounts near the genesis of the storm. If DC can end up in the storm, that is usually a good sign for us. Kind of a weirdly displaced Miller B.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Any GoogleAI updates for 12z and/or trends?
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yep. The best that a coastal could do is to back the flow which is basically what the GFS and GEM-para do. I have not looked closely, but I almost wonder if there is a weak slp scooting through the Piedmont or a lee side low(LSL). But really, this is kind of a mix of a clipper and an anafront. Can we get a phase? IDK about that.
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