Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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That dude has been bad all winter. Flips badly almost daily. I stopped reading his stuff a year or two ago - I mainly see it in the ENSO or MA forum - can't remember which. He is just working for clicks.
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The 18z Euro would be a worst case scenario not because of rain...but because of insanely huge amounts of ice. That would knock power out to many, many people. I would gladly take rain over that business.
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Bam makes sure to make predictions for all sides of things. He basically canceled winter and had to retract the next day. He will always be right, because he predicts every outcome.
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The 18z Euro would be a really bad ice storm for most...before changing to rain on the back end. In my few experiences w/ ice in the eastern valley....if that cold gets trapped, it doesn't get scoured. I think the depth of the cold air keeps it frozen. It's just what version of frozen does the forum get that is the question for me.
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Was just coming to comment on this. Those are all-time record lows on that map.. We rarely ever see that extreme on modeling, and have seen -10s occur about once a decade...mid 80s, early mid90s, mid-late 2010s.....I think we would have to have deep snowpack to get there. But the overall setup on modeling (HL and EPO block) would support very cold temps if we get snow on the ground. While the GFS run is over cooked, its low temps do have some support across modeling. I cannot imagine those temps w/ the power out or no alternate source of heat.
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With 12 days still to be inputed, TRI is one +3.3 after that warmup to start the month. Lows have been quiet cold this month. The interesting thing will be whether we can erase the +3.3, and I think that will likely occur. The chances for January to finish BN(maybe well below) are quite high, especially considering that today will almost certainly be well BN and added to the list tomorrow. Pretty amazing to see a reversal on the table after all of that warm weather. By the end of January, Dec/Jan may well average below normal for temps...even with the huge post Christmas chinook.
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Need a break from analyzing the growing potential of a weekend winter storm? So do I. Here is some long range stuff.... Feb 2-7....looks like we get a break and a WELCOME warmup. We may need it. Here are 30 day maps from the Euro Weeklies mean and control today. The other is the CFSv2 from lunch. There is a good chance that Feb 2-7th is halftime for winter. The Euro Weeklies control has two more substantial cold shots embedded. One is at d20-27. The 500 pattern again looks ripe for February. I have listed Feb7-March7 as the next possible big window. This runs a little bit against overall Nina climatology, but I bet you can find a group of La Nina winters which have a small cluster of very cold Februarys. In fact, this might well be a Nino pattern beginning to flex just a little. Nice EPO, NAO, AO block. Again, this is how you trap cold air under a block and send it southward. Precip during this time frame looks seasonal, and I would doubt this would be a dry time as climatology favors increasingly wet weather as we slowly approach spring. As for spring....man, it looks way out there as of this writing. Now that could change, but there are some signs winter may linger this year well into March. If this pans out, Larry Cosgrove put together a gem of a seasonal forecast. Uncanny. I don't think wx modeling can outrun the human mind - yet!
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Well, evidently the Scooters groundhog has some kind of Puxatony Phil powers. Didn't seem overly scared of his shadow, but maybe that is what happens when good folks slip you a cake bite now and then - got to stay visible.
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I saw a groundhog roaming around at Scooter's Coffee(great place on the west end here!) during the middle of winter last week. I should have known we were in trouble then.
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Follow that up w/ temps that barely get above freezing from Sat-Sat...and that is a big problem. Some temps almost assuredly will be low single digits or BZ for nighttime lows. Yikes.
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Decent agreement now. I have been waiting on the GEM-para to come into alignment. It did at 0z regarding E TN.
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Impressive. I bet that 6z GFS run went in recently....but that is huge from this range.
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Yes. That is the one you had to remind me of that time...ice to snow and back to ice in Knoxville.
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5-7" band of sleet stretching over a good portion of Tenn. Never seen anything like it!
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This is reminding more of the 93-94 storm @John1122. Lots of ice and snow in Knoxville followed by cold temps. I40-74 was down to like one lane for a few days due to that. What do you think?
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I don't like waiting on a second system west of the Apps. Too many times I have seen that slide into the Carolinas during previous storms. Need a 0z Euro solution or AIFS look. Fortunately, the GFS is well...the 12z GFS. There is a reason it scores poorly. The 12z GEM is trending south. And as always...read Jeff's post above.
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Throw the GEM, ICON, and GFS in the blender....good result.
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I was thinking the same. The ZR was gone, but snow was missing. Somebody had to have been pasted on that run!
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Yeah, the 12z GEM is a MAJOR winter storm...gonna try to go inland runner @TellicoWx
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Yup. 12z GEM is south of 0z pretty bigly. Just watching trends right now.
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I am always wrong w/ the GEM in thinking it will be suppressed...but the high is pushing further south on this run at 12z
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The ICON looks overly amped. The GFS looks under amped. Blend them...and looks good. All I am doing today is throwing the models in a blender.
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I don't like that we have had feedback all over North America this winter which turned out to be false. That 6z GFS run almost had to have been. OTH, Juneau, Alaska, did get hammered. Mammoth got hammered, but really...kind of normal for them to have big storms like that. Russia got hammered. Strong amplifications and big storms kind of seem to be slightly more prevalent in the NH this winter??? Also, Italy's Alps got hammered after weeks of news stories saying they wouldn't have snow for the winter - huge snows at the end of December. I hope we get in on the action on some level...maybe not 2-3" of ice. For me, I think we need to see cold high pressure maintain its presence along w/ the STJ. Get those cooking, and see where it goes....
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You know the thing that is concerning for me is that on the 6z GFS run...we barely get above freezing at TRI from Saturday to the end of the run. The 0z Euro (can't use the 6z as it only goes out to 144) doesn't bring us above freezing until Feb 2, and has a very severe cold snap on the 30th. Maybe the real story(other than snow) is the duration and severity of the cold which could accompany this. If we get heavy snow or ice, that could be significant problem in combination w/ cold which follows. The GFS and GEM-para also both have another pretty severe cold snap around the 30th. The 0z EPS has a 10day mean from Jan 24th to Feb 3 which is 10-15 degrees BN...incredible or an ensemble to have that.
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The full run of the 6z GFS is just insanity - Mammoth like. I am guessing there is some feedback in that. The 6z AI Euro and 6z Euro were strong runs. 0z UKMET is the furthest north. Ensembles generally fit deterministic runs. 6z ICON if you want something to worry about.
