Carvers Gap

45 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I don't think this is more Hugo.Hugo came from a different longitude and latitude and even hit Puerto Rico.This seems to be a different beast and there has never been a hurricane to hit the  coast line without it re-curving away from the mainland since the 1850's?, with it's present location.

Was just commenting about how on the 0z Euro it had the SE coast to NE TN track and was still a strong storm far inland.  

@nrgjeff, what say you about the Euro Weeklies that rolled last night?  I thought they moved every so slightly off their spot during weeks 4-6.  Might just be a variation, but the western ridge looked stronger.  However, the expected downstream trough was in the country's mid-section.  I would think an eastern trough would be the result of the western pattern if it were to verify.  Also, thanks for the monthly chart update.... 

The NAO question in the mid-long range thread got me to thinking(always a dangerous proposition), does a -NAO actually produce more winter wx in the middle and western forum areas (middle and west TN/KY, and northern Alabama/ MS)?  OR is a -AO the better set-up w a +PNA.  NE TN is a bit different.  We can actually get by w a couple of different set-ups.  The -NAO has tendency to allow more coastals which can really hammer the mtns and eastern valley.  However, those coastals seem to have trouble reaching Nashville and Memphis.  Also, for you folks in Chattanooga...does a -NAO help for you all as well?  Folks from western KY/northern MS/northern AL feel free to jump in as well....

My favorite pattern here is a -NAO because Kingsport is in a rains shadow when it comes to upslope snow.  So, sometimes the patterns that produce upslope (+PNA or -EPO) don't work as well here.  We have to have help from the Atlantic.  Seems like the Plateau and westward requires a more favorable Pacific.  I am always interested in this debate and flip/flop often.  LOL.  @*Flash*, I am tagging you since we were discussing this in the other thread to some extent and wanted to continue the conversation(you need to take a water cooler break so that you talk weather more.).  @John1122 always has some interesting comments regarding Pacific/Atlantic setups for winter...

OK, I may have to recant my leaf changing statement...

http://www.ashevillewx.com/current-news/2018/8/19/how-will-excessive-amounts-of-rain-this-year-affect-fall-color-around-wnc

I have been getting used to these bone dry late summer and fall time frames...I feel like I have moved to Florida with all of this rain and humidity.  Not complaining though.  This should make for a heckuva fall color season!

3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I have to believe His plan His timing will work out for you. STEM study will all come back like riding a bike!

And to our main topic winter spec. I still think weak El Nino or +Neutral, perhaps Modoki region. The KW coming out has made it from the research community to the energy blogs. Hopefully that is not the jinx. At any rate, El Nino should get a little tail wind (westerly wind pun intended).

The 11-20 day forecast shows sharp divergence between the Euro and GFS, and between the old weeklies. Tonight we'll see what the Euro weeklies do. Friday I will comment in the Mid-term Summer Discussion (pinned thread).. unless I feel lazy and just like the expected Carvers post.

...nah, man.  "Don't you put that evil on me," to quote the movie, Talladega Nights.  I look forward to your post regarding the Weeklies.  Definitely look forward to your discussion about 11-20 day differences and tonight's run.  

(changed you to your...I promise that I can speak English.  And it is Talladega Nights not Ricky Bobby...Yikes!)

49 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

@Carvers Gap @nrgjeff ...I'm currently enrolled in the BOMP program at Mississippi State. With a BS in Math and 2/3rd's of a Met degree, they agreed to let me take their Synoptic course; however, I have to make a 'B' or higher to gain acceptance into their Master's program. Now, it's going to be an uphill battle given I laid down the science at 21 following a call into ministry (2007), so obviously the time gap is against me. But with a 8-year youth ministry tenure officially in the rear view mirror, the time has never been better to pick up the pursuit and run with it. I guess sometimes the dreams we think are dead are just dormant instead.

Well, that is great news!  Thanks for letting me be nosy.  It is about time that one of the hobby folks from this forum finally get a degree in the field that we enjoy. I have always felt that one thing the other great sub-forums of this site do...is they inspire people to go into some type of field within meteorology.  Not saying we are the reason(you took that brave step), but we can still be proud anyway.  I always enjoy reading posts from met students on the other sites.  Congratulations!  

And Flash, I agree...great thread.

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

First off, great QBO disco last week (sorry I missed out) and thanks again to Carver for pulling Isotherm into the mix. Considering I'm jumping into a Synoptic 404 course next spring, ingesting his intel is academically refreshing. As for the ENSO, I just went through today's CPC ENSO presentation:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Per Carver's odd breakdown, I think I'd take the Nada % down a notch and up the weak Niño %, though that's likely the hopeful optimist in me. Honestly, the more I look at SST maps, the more encouraged I am with the PDO region at least for now. West based Niño/Modoki's have been our friend in their recent occurrences; however, I believe it was John who mentioned each winter is its own analog and Carver who said last year how it's not enough to have the right ingredients...but the right ingredients in the right order. To both, I 100% agree.

At any rate, I've been through this rodeo long enough to know you whatever fears, concerns, or hopes you have in August are better deferred. Gun to my head, I'll mentally blend 2006-07 and 2014-15 and set aim on an up-and-down/'should have at least 2-3 weeks of open season' winter. As long as we don't have a bone-chilling, no QPF spell late December/January...

Are you studying to be a met?  If so, awesome!  I look forward to you putting some of that knowledge use here.  I think the mid-Pac will be warmer than normal.  Seems almost a given.  It is the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific that is of interest.  The BOMM LR model does not predict a Nino according to D'Aleo.  It may indeed be an outlier.  He and JB may actually be a tad bit at odds over the Pacific forecast.  Interestingly, I can almost look IMBY and tell that the Nina is gone.  It is perfectly green - not a brown blade of grass in sight.   That said, D'Aleo made a pretty convincing argument that Ninos have a tendency to fail during low solar times.  Past that, I am out on a limb w the saw in my hand!  LOL.  If forced, I would still go w a weak Nino(or at the least a weakly positive nada).  To me it makes no difference of a few tenths separating the two.  I think we get the same results - snow mid to late winter w/ a better than outside shot at some early winter.

10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hi there! I'm from another region (the Mid-Atlantic but I've been kinda scanning the various boards for any winter discussion (since there are general things--especially La or El...that can affect us all!) So I'm wondering if the goalposts of what to expect may range from a Neutral to a weak El Niño....? I mean, is q third consecutive La Niña still on the table, or? (And I'm still not clear on Modoki...)

Others please chime-in as well....I think the range of possibilities(outside goal posts) would be a very weak Nina to a weakly moderate Nino with something in between being the most likely outcome.  I would give a weak Nina a 10-15% chance and a weakly moderate Nino maybe a 20% chance.  So, I would place a 65% chance on a Nada(weakly positive on the Nino side) or a weak Nino.  Speaking of the EC, there can be big differences in surface weather when comparing a Nada to a weak Nino.  I do think things are coming into better focus, but ENSO forecasts can be pretty fickle at times.  As we get into early fall, I think the ENSO state will be an easier call.  Additionally, the weather right now "seems" to have a more Nino feel to it w cooler temps and more rain...That said, I would think we would also see a beefier monsoon season in the southwest if that was the case.

Thought I would share this quote from D'Aleo today on WxBell...

Tom Downs and I have not been confident this El Nino would actually be anything more than a modest Modoki. JB has been pointing towards a Modoki and using it in his analogs. I had observed going back through several solar cycles, that the attempts fail until after the solar minimum which is a year or more away (BTW we have had 130 spotless days this year to date heading for a top 10 quiet year like we saw a decade ago a few times).

One other rule of thumb that I like to follow is that weather patterns during winter have a shelf life of four to six weeks.  Very tough to get wall-to-wall BN cold like the Euro depicted due to the length of time involved.  Have to think at least one of those months (DJF) will be AN.   

And I shouldn't be superstitious...but being in the bullseye in August just gives me a bad mojo feeling.  LOL.  The forum area on WxBell is depicted as -3F to -5F BN for DJF and 133-167% of snowfall(first flake to last flake).  The line for heavier precip is cut from Memphis to the Plateau and to the southeast of that.  The -5F bullseye is centered over Chattanooga - no lie.  I know @nrgjeff is rolling his eyes somewhere! To me, anytime I see -5F(below normal relative to averages) I scratch my head just a bit.  That takes a ton of cold to get that result.  I generally view -2F to -3F as a pretty cold winter.  Even -1F can make for a great winter provided we have moisture.  Just seems that recently our winters(barring a few exceptions) have had a substantial thaw that erases much of the BN temps.  Personally, I don't see -5F BN relative to norms...which makes me a bit skeptical and maybe makes me think I need to cut about 50% off those temp/precip numbers to account for hype.  I will gladly eat a serving of crow if wrong.

If anything, their forecast is a good read and food for thought.  Past that, it is still August and things will for sure change...take w a grain of salt.

@John1122, you may be on to something.  I do agree that just because previous Decembers were warm...doesn't necessarily mean this one will.  As they say, correlation is not causation.  I am just riding Nino climo which favors mid-late weighted winters which likely runs counter to the previous sentence to this one- Ha!  But again, each year is its own analog - still a ton on the table.  JB actually mentioned that he thought winter would begin later...but their analog package does include 09-10, and he admits it could arrive early.  The JAMSTEC, CANSIPS, Euro Monthly output do support a strong winter signal east of the MS, south of a line from the Ohio River extrapolated to the NE to say Boston.  I was surprised at how cold the Euro(monthly) was.  The CFS is not on board at this time.  I like winters loaded in Jan/Feb mainly because we get so little snow in NE TN during early-mid December.  I do agree that a weak Nino is a different animal than all other scenarios.  For NE TN, a weak Nina or a weak Nino can mean interesting winter weather.  A weak Nina usually means heightened chances of severe cold sometime during winter.  Weak Ninos just seem to have more snow here w cold(just not severe cold) along w a lot of cold rain.  And yeah, we will definitely keep an eye on your November signal as it has some decent skill in this area.  I think the wild cards this winter are the NAO pattern and whether December can get winter rolling early.  Here are there analogs from the WxBell initial winter forecast which will likely change some by Fall anyway....

63-64

69-70

77-78

85-86

86-87

93-94

95-96

96-97

04-05

09-10

I should add that if you can get your hands on the Euro monthly forecast(depicting each month), WxBell is very similar to those temps.  Not sure if they are correct, I generally have a hard time believing that winter begins early w El Nino winters and like the second half of winter idea...but, hey!  I'll have one of each of what they are having....

Crap!  The WeatherBell forecast has us in the middle of a very big bullseye of a very big winter in the SE.  Welp folks...I am changing my forecast to much AN for temps and calling for much BN for snowfall.    

13 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

@Carvers Gap : 

The kind words are appreciated. I would not utilize the QBO as a correlate of blocking in and of itself (the correlation is minimal in a vacuum); however, its utility increases exponentially when employed adjunctively with other indices, most notably, proxies for solar status/activity. Further, the QBO trend; positive --> negative; negative transitioning toward positive, has proven somewhat informative as to the overall nature of the winter blocking. Again though, while yes, a(n) descending (ascending) QBO would implicate heightened (decreased) blocking probability, I don't place too much weight on QBO variation singularly. Further, there are other confounding variables that can contaminate this analysis, such as upstream tropical forcing, among other factors. Sudden stratospheric warming events occur with greater frequency in the negative QBO regime, but the sun modulates this probability as well.

Going forward into this winter, the QBO will incontrovertibly be in an ascending phase; whether it converts technically positive during winter remains to be seen. However, we know, at the very least, it will be weak (either slightly negative or slightly positive most likely). Solar activity remains in a descending phase; so superficially, the probability appears somewhat heightened for potential -NAM, but there are other modulatory factors I examine in the autumn that I inject into my, "blocking equation" so we'll see how those shake out in a couple of months. 

 

Greatly appreciate the detailed response and for stopping by the forum.  We have been "chewing" on the QBO topic intermittently for about a year.  Thanks for the insight in how/when to use it along w its weighting in conjunction w other factors.  

4 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Abstract

[1] Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are a major source of variability during Northern Hemisphere winter. The frequency of occurrence of SSWs is influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), the 11 year solar cycle, and volcanic eruptions. This study investigates the role of ENSO and the QBO on the frequency of SSWs using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3.5 (WACCM3.5). In addition to a control simulation, WACCM3.5 simulations with different combinations of natural variability factors such as the QBO and variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed to investigate the role of QBO and ENSO. Removing only one forcing, variable SSTs or QBO, yields a SSW frequency similar to that in the control experiment; however, removing both forcings results in a significantly decreased SSW frequency. These results imply nonlinear interactions between ENSO and QBO signals in the polar stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter. This study also suggests that ENSO and QBO force SSWs differently. The QBO forces SSW events that are very intense and whose impact on the stratospheric temperature can be seen between December and June, whereas ENSO forces less intense SSWs whose response is primarily confined to the months of January, February, and March. The effects of SSWs on the stratospheric background climate is also addressed here.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JD015757

Great find.  Yeah, like I said earlier, the QBO had to be used in conjunction w other factors.  I think the underlined section depicts that.  As Judah Cohen infamously demonstrated, relying on one factor is probably infamous.  Remember the Siberian snow cover debacle?  Now, I like Judah and how he thinks out of the box...but he was humbled (as we all are) when we rely overly much on one thing.  Even ENSO which I have grown to rely more heavily on....is not infallible.  I prefer to think of the various winters as genetic compositions.  In humans, there are traits that are more dominant when others are not present.  It takes two recessive genes in order to make a trait such as blue eyes appear.   And while I think there is a correlation between QBO(see my comments last winter...I am just honestly to lazy to repost them), maybe the QBO is evidence that another underlying factor is also present.  After all, the QBO is really just a reversal in wind direction at the 30mb and 50mb layers of the atmosphere.  So, it may be that the QBO needs to be found in conjunction w other factors.  There is also a difference in the 50 and 30 mb QBO...I think most refer to the 30mb.  I know last year that we were talking about the QBO and we were actually discussing two different indexes.  Going to cherry-pick my favorite winters...

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=mrx

84-85 The benchmark for all winters for me.  The QBO was turning positive.  It was an abnormally long negative timeframe w 19 straight months that were negative.  It would flip positive in February.  The devil is in the details for this winter.  The last week of Dec 84 featured temps in the upper 60s for NE TN.  December was nearly eight degrees above normal for the month in Bristol.  Jan 1 of 85 was 71.  The cold snap for January was centered in all of January.  Had the week in December occurred one week later, those average temps would have been skewed warmer.  That actually happened this winter w a cold month being split between two months - washed out the averages and made them look like average months.  Eventually, the winter of 84-85 would break during the third week of Feb, and it never came back.  February began cold but we managed to hit 70 again that month as well...March went quite warm.  So, the temperature flip did occur that winter.  

95-96 I remember this winter due to snow and cold.  Knoxville missed many days of school.  The QBO had just flipped negative that fall.

09-10 I remember this winter because this is when it seemed that winters became consistently colder here- after many winters without snow.  The QBO had just flipped negative that summer.

14-15(addendum)  The QBO flipped negative during May of that year.  While not a great winter for most of the forum area, it proved to be incredible snowy in Kingsport.  I had to go back on my phone and find the pics which had the dates.  That winter(I think) was the one where Kingsport City ran out of snow days and then some.  

17-18. I will remember this winter for the cold and incredibly dry weather during that timeframe.  The QBO had just flipped negative that fall.  Yes, there was warm...but there was incredible cold as well.

Jax, you said that there was an early SSW that winter.  Indeed it occurred in early January.  Maybe not so coincidentally, it was preceded by incredible warmth here.  As noted earlier this year, I do wonder if episodes of extreme warmth sometimes precede these SSW events - especially in eastern NA.

There were strat splits during the winters of 84-85, 09-10, and 17-18.  

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

Addendum:  I missing one really snowy winter during the 2010s...I will go back and find it, and then add it.  I think it was the winter where we kept getting snow in NE TN, but everyone else struck out.  So, it might no be memorable for everyone....(edit) found it...14-15

6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

First off,i was just pointing out what the QBO  was showing NOW.I never in insinuated because it was so negative now that it would be a a cold winter,just wanted to clear that up.You can go up to the July,28 post i made above back then and putting some comparison to the 2009-10 winter.But the ENSO surely doesn't seem to acting like 2009,not right now anyways.

I think it was a great point that you made.  Glad that you brought it up.  I hadn't realized it was that low...just got me to thinking out loud which is alway dangerous.  You and John brought some great stuff to the board!

@Save the itchy algae!As for the QBO having merit...it does IMO.  We used it last winter pretty effectively to predict the cold shot and one could argue the strat split as well.  It has an arguable correlation to high latitude block.  Just not sure it has as much influence this winter unless it pops positive.  Negative QBOs at 30mb correlate to some snowy winters in NE TN.  Like the screen name BTW.  Post more!

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Looking at the QBO reveals extremely mixed results heading into winter. 1984-1985 was a negative summer that went neutral to positive in winter. As a matter of fact, it was -27.10 in August of 1984. A record low at the time, after being -25.39 in July of 1984, also a record low.  In 2005-06 that record was broken, but then it peaked down in November at -29 after having set a record the prior month at -28, it managed to stay in the -25 range for December. That was not a good winter for snow/cold lovers. It was actually one of, if not the warmest winters I recall.  Both 1984-85 and 2005-2006 were weak La Nina years. But absolutely opposite in the intensity of winter. 

In 1959-1960 it was positive the entire winter. In 1995-1996 it was very weakly negative. In 1977-1978 it flipped from negative to positive in summer and stayed positive in winter. 

So to me, it seems to have little effect on the intensity of the winter we experience. We can be extremely mild while it's deeply negative and we can be extremely cold and snowy while it's positive. Then the opposite seems to occur too with about the same frequency. So I'm not sure it's a particularly useful tool to try and make a winter forecast. 

November can be very key though. We virtually always have a cold/snowy winter if it's the temps average below normal in November. 

The drop during the fall season (where it goes negative) is a pretty good signal for blocking IMO.  Last couple of winters it has been pretty good tool, but like most wx tools it does not work well without other metrics.  I do think there are some winters where it is not a good signal, and indeed this one might be iffy.  Whether it had anything to do w the strat split last spring is open for debate.   @Isotherm has used the QBO(in his seasonal forecasts) before which is where I learned about the tool.  I will tag him and see if he cares to comment.  The QBO rise during winter can be a good sign for a flip to warming temps.   To me the trajectory seems to signal/not signal blocking.  I don't really see it as determining intensity of the overall winter.  Blocking in the eastern valley, especially NE TN, can be a big player where we Atlantic storms do pump moisture over the mountains.  That said, I will always agree that ENSO is a major trump card.  I do think the optimum set-up for snow is slightly different in NE TN when compared to the northern Plateau as we just don't get the forcing that you all do - which is why Atlantic systems that throw moisture back over the Apps are prime for big snows here.  Middle and west TN have very different setups unless we all manage a slider.  As for the rising QBO, it does not necessarily mean that the winter is warm...just means that a quick flip to spring is possible (again, off the top of my head).  I "think" 84-85 actually had that flip.  Just saying that the when the QBO begins to have a strong positive trajectory, things can flip warm suddenly.  I will do some more digging.  Hopefully, Isotherm will stop in and add his two cents.  He has forgotten more than I will ever know.

Another reason why I say that each year is its own analog is that so many factors can influence winter but ENSO rarely steers my wrong.  But once the QBO, PDO, AMO, solar min/max, climate cycle, etc are added in....each winter has its own set of chromosomes.  Yes, a few might look like each other...but ultimately there are no carbon copies.  

John, great post!  Always like those.  I used to have a Biology teacher (way back in HS) that said he had grandparents that remember hearing trees explode during cold winters.  No idea if that can actually happen, but I remember the old folks when I was a kid talking about how bad winters were in the early quarter of the last century.

At -29.10(30mb), the QBO does indeed seem primed for a flip.  Just glancing at the data, recent negative phases average 12-16 months.  We are on month 14.   Once the numbers slide in the negative 25-30s, the clock is ticking.  Like I said the only glimmer of hope is that the last positive cycle was an anomaly as it lasted seemingly forever.  Maybe this negative cycle will mirror that?  But if forced to predict, I think the QBO flips during late fall or December.  Just a guess, but we are on borrowed time.  Additionally, when they flip they can move to neutral quite quickly.  

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

I wonder if the weak Nino will be the driving factor.  I agree that ENSO is a massive player as well as the AMO/PDO.  I wonder if the QBO has a bigger impact during Ninas or Nadas.  Just seems like Ninos are an ace up the sleeve.  So, I do think the weak Nino(should it actually occur) is money.  Somewhere in one of the subforms, there was a sunspot graph for like the last 150 years.  Low sunspot numbers (solar mins) do correlate very well to nice winters in this region of the world - maybe even a decent correlation.  Again, we do not want the QBO to suddenly flip during mid winter....  The money call w the QBO is when it flips and drops during late fall or early winter.   Other than that, I am not sure how dependable it is once in a consistent negative state.  So, IMHO a dropping QBO that goes negative is a very good indicator of blocking up top.  Also, a QBO(though still deeply negative) that begins to quickly move to neutral is bad news.  Right now we are strongly negative w the QBO as Jax shared.  This may be a situation where a weak ENSO is battling a rotting -QBO.  What I am hoping for is that the usual time cycle for the QBO is a tad slower...and indeed it stayed positive much, much longer than normal last time.  But I think the seasonal models are seeing the weak Nino and a recent trend towards high latitude blocking.  I will be surprised if things get going early, but not overly.  Just seems that early winters are very difficult to come buy in NE TN though we have had a few recent ones.  Snow (at lower elevations) of more than 2-3" before Christmas happens...just not as often since say the 1980s.  And I say again....the kiss of death is an early season snow at lower elevations prior to Thanksgiving.  If that happens, I am calling "torch" right then.  Now the real whammy(the good kind) would be if the NAO positive cycle is over.

16 hours ago, *Flash* said:

It seems when the QBO is this negative going into August, it almost always stays negative into November (which can be a fair indicator in a winter weather forecast). Fingers crossed we don't have another 1994-95 or 2001-02 where the QBO was in the -mid 20's late summer...and rebounded to positive territory by December.

It is late on Sunday...something else about the QBO.  I think there is a point during the winter that we don't want to see it moving quickly towards neutral.  Last winter was money because it dropped during the fall and continued throughout winter.  I think a falling QBO is generally better.  It could be a problem during late winter if it moves in a positive direction.  That might be about the time it should switch off the top of my head.  Also, off the top of my head, when it reaches its lowest point and comes up, that could mean a flip to warm...so something to watch as we head into winter.  As Jeff said, we want the QBO on a TKO and down for the count.

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

In reply to Carvers post in the spring/summer pattern thread about El Nino being back loaded. I've seen both front loaded and back loaded.  2009-2010 started fast and furious and never let up until late February.  

A couple years ago it was super back loaded and we got bombed in February. 

Here are some of our Nino Decembers.

Early December of 1957 it snowed 3 inches and got to -7 degrees then warmed up later in the month. Strong Nino

December of 1958 it was frigid, around 5 degrees below normal for the month, lots of lows in the 10s, snowed just over 2 inches for the month. Very dry with only 1.5 inches of rain total.

December of 1963 it was super cold for December. 8 days in the single digits for lows, peaking down at -5 on 12-19. It snowed on 14 days of the month, the last 10 days were pure winter. 7 inches of snow on 12-22, 8 inches on 12-23, 7 inches on 12-31.

December of 1965 it was a drought. It was average to above on temps. Snowed a couple of times, December 1st it was 9 degrees.  Less than 1 inch of rain for the month. Strong Nino

December of 1968 it was below normal on temps, snowed on 8 days, 2 inches was the biggest event on 12-4-68. 10 days with lows in the 10s, highest temp was 57. Coldest day was 24/13 with snowshowers on 12-15-68.

December of 1969, which was a weak Nino, was cold with a huge snow event on Christmas day with 8 inches falling. Snow fell on 13 days of the month. 

December of 1972 was a torch, around 5 degrees above normal for the month. There were still a few cold/snow showery days but overall wet with 10 inches of rain, and warm.

December of 1976 was cold, snowed on 5 different days, snowed 2 inches on 12-21, snowed an inch on the 29th, the temp shot p to 50 and it changed to rain on the 30th, but it switched back to snow and snowed 1.5 inches on the backside of the system. 12-31 was the coldest day at 23-2.

December of 1977 was about 2 degrees below average overall and it snowed on 10 different days. None were more than .5 inches though. 

December of 1979 was mild, 2 degrees above average but snow fell on 4 different days of the month, also less than .5 inches each event. This was a weak Nino and it's a rareish one that was above normal in December.

December of 1982 was very warm, around 6 degrees above normal with 8 inches of rain. We had a 5 inch snow during the month though. Very strong Nino.

December of 1986 had a few days of snowshowery weather and was around 1 degree below normal overall for the month. 

This general pattern continues, if the Nino is strong or very strong, December is probably going to be AN and either very wet or very dry. If the Nino is weak or moderate, it's often game on in December, but not always.

 

 

 

 

 

As always, great post and thanks for working that conversation back into the correct thread.  Great information and will read again.  Those records are uncorrupted and a fantastic resource for the board.  I am going w a weak to low-end moderate El Nino...just a hunch.  Maybe it even falters a bit.  I would be surprised by a strong-moderate or strong Nino.  Maybe we get going early based on your numbers.  My gut really wants to start this winter right after Christmas and then go right to the end of February...w a typical January thaw embedded.  I suspect December will have some cold, but it seems sometimes that the warm numbers are just difficult to overcome these days. I can envision a scenario where December begins warm, and then it is just a matter of whether it can get cold enough to average things out - but I am way off in hypothetical land w that.  I am encouraged by the recent rains.  We need to break the pattern of long dry spells in NE TN.  We have been getting rain w some long dry spells in between.  IMHO, for a good winter we need frequent precip chances.