Carvers Gap

Got a little band of snow over eastern Hawkins and western Sullivan.  Super narrow, but snow nonetheless.

And today’s winner is the 18z GEFS temp anomaly map! 

I am just going to ride with whichever operational or ensemble is coldest and snowiest!  LOL And dern straight....that deserves a hot dog emoji.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The issue is Neutral Enso conditions result in a very up and down pattern. There are other drivers that are dictating the forecast. MJO, PV, AO. I don't expect anything to really lock in all winter. It's been a great "winter" for most of the midwest and northeast already. Almost everyone is way above normal snowfall totals for Dec 2nd.  

Yeah, I actually like the forecast(just referencing what Jeff has mentioned...I haven't read it yet but will) of a Plains storm track with cutters early.  That is fairly normal.  Then, as winter presses and El Nino sort of forces the trough eastward during January and February, I actually favor sort of what we are seeing now...cutters and coastals as a secondary track.  And we know on the EC that just one or two systems along or inside the coast can make for some memorable winter weather.  But yeah, I agree that we might not see a settled pattern this winter...but if we are, it would likely be a trough in the East for the second half of winter.  I am guessing the GEFS is likely right but just too quick.  I think we are going to have to have the Pacific in our favor as it just seems an Atlantic block during winter is difficult these days.

Also, the QBO tends to run in roughly 14 month cycles when positive.  It just finished month thirteen.  So, it is about on schedule if not slightly behind.  Here is the index history.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Good write-up, Jeff.  Yeah, looked like the Euro Weeklies which ran from the 0z run just basically went wash/rinse/repeat for the rest of the run.  It might be right as a new pattern is due and it might not be.  I couldn't see much difference between week 1 and week 6.  Looked like a northwest/western trough with an eastern ridge.  I am not even sure the Weeklies matched with the 12z run of the EPS.  Like you said, it "appears" that the low in the southwest is an error and caused the run to miss from that point on.  But I have seen it nail patterns where I was certain it was in error.  I tend to favor the GEFS just a bit because it seems to see eastern cold better...and it is not getting bogged down in the southwest.  But I tread carefully as the GEFS is less reliable in a stable winter pattern.  Not sure I would share a foxhole with either model right now.  LOL.  Some fairly major differences in how each are handling the MJO and that occurs fairly early in the Euro and American models.

Just general comments not directed as a reply to Jeff....Also, looks like the QBO dropped from 7.27 to 5.07.  That is its biggest drop since it began falling in June.  Pretty steady progression which is sort of unusual as it usually has one big drop as it descends.  So the trajectory is down and wind reversal is in progress at 30mb...still not there yet.  Makes me think the QBO will be negative during mid to late January or sometime in early February if this consistent trajectory persists.  If it drops quickly, we could be there by early January.  Would be interesting to see an actually splitting of the PV about the time it goes below zero.  Looks like with the QBO cross-section graph that there is usually a stall and then a drop and a stall and then a drop.  The double dip into positive during the last cycle had the first drop, and then it went back up.  Just look at the blue in the upper right hand corner...that is the current reversal working its way down.  You can see just to the left where it failed to reverse.  You can see the ones further to the left how they progressed.  This current cycle looks like it has survived the stall and is progressing downward again.

https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Circulation/QBO.html

27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I haven't seen models this confused in years. They are good for about 7 days out with temps and 3-4 days with precip, anything beyond that is brutal. 

I think for one thing, we have been testing the limits as to how far into the future that we can use these models...I know I have.  D10-15 patterns shift a lot on ensembles anyway.  That said, there have been some wild shifts lately that often resemble the operational shifts.  I just like to see how far I can push the envelope.  D8-15 has been a mess for about 12-13 months.  Seems like when the Euro and GEFS locked into a pattern years ago, they didn't bounce around as much(but they were still prone to shifts).  I also suspect that we are seeing a somewhat substantial(but slow) hemispheric pattern change.  December '18 to October '19 seemed like one big, repetitive pattern.  Now, I think the pattern is changing, partly due to seasonal changes and partly because the atmosphere is now coupled with the weak El Nino.  I am not sure where the pattern goes.  It is a bit like playing the slots...just never know what is going to come up.  As Tellico said...probably best just to ride with climatology right now.  It actually has been pretty good.  

Nice run of the 12z GEFS.  Dec 8-18 it has a nice EPO/PNA ridge.  Timing would be tough for a storm, but gulf systems don't seem to a problem right now.  I hesitate to say it...but nice trends over the past 3-4 runs on the GEFS.  Let's see what the EPS shows.

Leconte Lodge reported 5" of snow this morning.  You can see their photos on FB.

40 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Yeah the next big cold shot (11-15 day) may dive into the West first. Therefore a Midwest cutter would not surprise me. Note I'm skipping next week and talking 11-15 day.

KCMO TV Met Gary Lezak released his public winter forecast. The really good stuff is behind a paywall; but, I can infer plenty from the KC forecast. He's cold and snowy in KC. Unfortunately that is a Plains favorable storm track, which matches much of what has been observed since September. Said primary pattern is cutters, especially bad for southeast Tenn. However a secondary pattern is forecast. He does not discuss it on the public forecast; but, his system has a secondary pattern. That's the colder northwest flow when our region could benefit. Especially true if split flow and a slider or two from Texas through Georgia.

I figure all that good stuff is more likely Jan/Feb. Will try not to sweat a mild December. Pun intended? Only if we need AC at Christmas like four years ago, lol!

No reason to waste a favorable pattern during the first half of December.  LOL.  I will say that when I was little, a cold/snowy Missouri and western KY were always good signs in my book.  Always seemed like if they could score early, we would get our share at some point.  Paducah, KY, was always a place I would keep an eye on.  If it snowed there, always seemed like we had a shot here(lived in Knoxville as a kid in the 70s).   I also like to watch the temp in International Falls.  It seemed like if the core of the cold went there, it would find a way here.  Now, I am looking at thunderstorm activity in the Indian Ocean and 500mb levels over Greenland and the eastern Pacific.  I have said this a few times...during the 70s it seemed like many of Knoxville's best snows would begin in Memphis(from a kid's perspective).  We know those as sliders now of course.  Would be interesting if we had one of those "old school" tracks...cutters and sliders. 

19 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Since I'm a Met I can't really throw rocks at the CDC folks, lol!

UT would have beat FSU except those turnovers. I wouldn't worry too much this early in the season.

Jax congratulations on the Iron Bowl! That is always fun esp when it's at Auburn.

Kansas wins the Maui Jim Invitational. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!

Finally, jumped on some Cyber Monday ski lift tickets (Snowshoe and WinterPlace WV). Sorry if I cause a permanent SER now.

Well, you might as well just go buy a new snow shovel while you are at it!

Finally had some snow showers here in Kingsport.  Sure is cold.  So, basically the higher elevations scored an event for the first two days of met winter.  Not bad.  Looks like Roan is getting hammered pretty good right now.  I bet they get several inches.

1 hour ago, Hilton01 said:

I also remember having to go to school during spring break to make up missed days that winter in Knox.  Good times growing up, and then it's all been down hill snowwise (for the most part) from there on, expectations too high too young after that.

That was the worst...Saturday school and losing Spring Break.  Fortunately kids now go an extra 30 mins per day now in most systems and bank 14-15 days...maybe 3-4 of those get used for professional development.  But I seriously hated going to school on Saturday.  Teachers back then would schedule tests on those days to make sure everyone would come to school.  So, on top of having to go to school on Saturday, I am having to study for a test on Friday night.  In 85, we had some Saturdays even get snowed out I think.  I remember sitting there taking a test on one Saturday and just watching it snow outside - like 2-3" on the ground.  In '85, my dad had a business trip to St. Louis.  He raced one of those storms home.  There was snow on snow on snow from mid January through almost the end of February.  We had drifts of 2-3'.   Seemed like every storm over performed with tons of NW flow types events even in the valley.  

0z EPS with yet another flip overnight to warm in the d8-15 range.  The 0z and 6z GEFS OTH look much improved and more than workable.  I still lean warm for December, and I do give the EPS more weight at this time of year.  So, let's see if the GEFS can hold at 12z....I also think the Dec 10-15 is still a time to watch for a storm to pull sharply out of the GOM.  

Think I am kidding about the warm overnight suites and afternoon?  Look at the 18z 5 day C temp anomaly for days 10-15 on the GEFS.  Then toggle it back to 0z from last night.  Night and day differences for a five day period.  And it is day10-15, so I cut the model some slack for sure.  Just wanted to illustrate how different those two runs are.  Now, if we can just get that 18z run to hold!

I think someone in one of the upslope areas should create an event thread or at least consider it.  If it winds up being a bust, no problem.  I think the Smokies are going to get sauced.  Looks like Roan Mountain already has a heavy band up.  I talked to someone in the foothill communities and they have rain already(prob will switch over).   I will be shocked if actual valley locations get too much.  That said, we could get a dusting to an inch.  I never do well with upslope.  Northwest facing communities on the Plateau and near the Smokies might do well enough to make a thread necessary. Heck, I will be living vicariously through you all anyway.  Planning on maybe making a run up to Roan Mountain on Tuesday to see if I can get some snow pics.

12z EPS again has positive run-to-run trends in the d8-15 range...heights are higher over Greenland, BN heights over the Aleutians.  Let’s see if we can get several more runs like that.  Been difficult to come by...

Of note...a three wave pattern is depicted instead of four.

The oddity continues(probably coincidence)...and the 12z suite being cooler continues as the GEFS is quite a bit cooler IMHO over the lower 48 for the last half of the run.

edit:  I wouldn't say yet that it has broken with its recent continuity for d8-15, but its run-to-run change when compared to the 6z GEFS is pretty remarkable as it places more of a trough in the eastern half of the US.

Oops!...I accidentally put that in the obs thread earlier.  @TellicoWx had some great thoughts that followed.  Yeah, the 12z Euro has cooled as well with favorable trends during the d8-10 rang at 500.  We will see where the EPS goes...but the 12z suite is again favorable(so far) where the 0z was not as much.  The run-to-run trends on the Euro are pretty good.  Not sure I would say the models have flip-flopped...but if they were to hold that look for 3-4 more runs, then maybe that term might be applicable.  I do agree with Tellico that climatology and ENSO are good counter balances to keep things steady.  Climo does call for a warm December about 2/3 of the time for weak El Ninos...I also operate on the idea that nature tries to balance itself out as evidenced by the West having cold winters and the East some of the time.  The East is due for a cold winter.  While a warm December would certainly make my forecast from June look good....it wouldn't bother me one bit if it busted as being too warm.  I think a warm call for December is still a good one...but the 12z suite does show a more favorable Pacific developing around the 10th.  So, who knows!

The oddity continues(probably coincidence)...and the 12z suite being cooler continues as the GEFS is quite a bit cooler IMHO over the lower 48 for the last half of the run.

edit:  I wouldn't say yet that it has broken with its recent continuity for d8-15, but its run-to-run change when compared to the 6z GEFS is pretty remarkable as it places more of a trough in the eastern half of the US.

4 hours ago, Jed33 said:

Picked up 2.26in of rain for the total from this event. Way more than it first appeared would fall. This system was definitely an overproducer!

Was a pretty sketchy drive back from Knoxville last night as moderate rain feel most of the trip home.  We fortunately hit a nice seam where only light rain was falling at one point.  Lots of ponding water on the roadway.  Creeks are full this morning.  Pretty amazing the difference in the weather pattern from several weeks ago...seems to be no problem with nice rain totals now.  Reminds me of last winter and spring.  Just turn on the fire hose.

And the 12z GFS continues to advertise a potential storm period from Dec 10-15...hopefully we can get just enough of a cold source region to make that interesting.  

Not a ton to add to Friday’s comments.  Another less than favorable overnight run. Let’s we if the afternoon suites yet again look workable.  Been an odd pattern in modeling for a couple of weeks.  I don’t see a ton right now that shows cold making it this far south and holding.  IMHO, going to have to wait until late December before things shake-up and maybe longer than that.  As stated earlier, I do hold out hope that modeling does flip back.  It could happen.  The last seasonal Cansips is out today. It has flipped completely to a western winter for January and February.  It has a sprawling ridge centered in the western Plains for December which encompasses most of the lower 48. Last year, winter modeling, excluding the Cansips I think, was almost universally cold in the East.  So, TIFWIW.  The SSW probably is going to input some chaos later this month.   Seasonal modeling can be iffy at best...but has some skill if specifics are removed and one looks for general patterns.

And delay number 3...LOL.  

And second time the stadium has been cleared due by to storms.  I blame the severe wx guys for this.  LOL J/K! 

I am too old to be sitting in the rain.  In my younger days, I welcomed it.  Then, I got older and smarter...well, somewhat smarter.