Carvers Gap

48 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

I think we’re in for a cool down, ensembles have gone back and forth quite a bit similar to what we saw this past winter.  I think the writings on the wall though for a shift.  

The JAMSTEC would support cooler temps as it has been decent the past few years.  But I have seen the Euro Weeklies jump the gun a bit lately.  I will take a look at 12z(operational and ensembles...weeklies roll again tomorrow evening) and see where it goes...if it holds warm, then the Weeklies from Thursday might have the potential to bust for weeks 2-3.  Still, that is a long way out there in terms of reasonable forecasting...so prob safe to stay with the cool down for now while knowing that it might verify a bit warmer than originally advertised.  Right now, just trying to keep myself interested until we get a legit fall pattern showing up on the modeling which is likely at least 4-6 weeks away right now.  Seems like we rarely get early Falls anymore, but I do keep an eye out for them...might be that we have an outside shot at it this year.  

It will be interesting to see if the Euro Weeklies(tomorrow evening) hold firm w a cooler extended forecast as some of the various operational runs and their ensembles do not have that look, including the 0z Euro ensemble mean.  

Euro Weeklies continue to depict a continued "cool down" w a AN temps off the EC(no idea if true) late in the run.  Either way, the Euro Weeklies depict a tolerable late summer pattern in our forum area.  Keep in mind that it is still summer and will still be warm...just not the excessive warmth from a few weeks ago.  Also, very wet pattern shaping up - think Jeff mentioned that in the severe thread.  I am interested to see if we can at least have a seasonal fall and not the scorchers from the Nina patterns of recent years.  Other than that....no huge takeaways other than the northern Rockies have some snow in the mean which is not unusual in September.  Higher elevations above 8,000' see fall very early.   

I can handle temps in the mid 80s during the worst of summer, even upper 80s.  Every day we steal from the grips of Dog Days is one less day from potentially the hottest time of the year.  Kind of like the reverse of winter when we sometimes get AN temps during the middle of our coldest time frame in January.  The LR models and Euro Weeklies(see also the JAMSTEC that Jax posted...) seem to be transitioning to a Nino-is pattern.  Seems like they jumped the gun once...but I suspect this is a legit transition now w the amount of rain we are receiving.

7 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Kinda Modoki look into fall by Jamstec,we haven't had a good fall severe for some time.

Good find.  The Euro Weeklies from yesterday likely support that.  BN heights and AN precip over the SE, though they certainly have the coldest temps in the lee of the Rockies.  That look is pretty consistent throughout its 46 day run with maybe some weakening of the cold in the lee of the central Rockies.  

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Still a bit sore about this in my attempt to find 'lessons learned'. Clearly, with respect to the outlook/risk zones pre-Friday PM, this system overachieved on the east side. Curious if any could make a case that this was NOT a low verification score event. I guess for now I'll hang my 'future reference' hat on this: On sharp right turning systems, pay close attention to stable/sinking air intrusion from the northwest. Storms will likely fire on both sides of this zone as the SPC storm report graphic confirms (per NashvilleSevereWx). Or to put it another way, perhaps this system was the winter storm equivalent of dry-slotting. Just some raw ideas for thought...

Flash, great share and post.  I wonder if time of day saved Nashville along w the ideas that you mentioned?  I think NE TN took it on the chin because the storms fired and held together late in the day into the evening.  But totally agree that systems that turn sharp, right-turning systems have to be watched.  

I might have missed a post about this...We were out of town last week as mentioned in the banter thread.  However, because we were two hours behind in the Rockies, I saw the thunderstorm lines approaching Kingsport.  I actually contacted my family to let them know that they were incoming.  Colonial Heights go absolutely hammered.  My house was without power for 24 hours after initially not being without power.  A tree came down the next night which I assume was damaged on Friday.  As of last night some homes had been without power for 48 hours.    Heck, I even think the NOAA transmitter was knocked out... I would not be surprised if other posters in the area were/are without power.  Cooks Valley was hit pretty hard as well.  @Windspeed, how did you fair?

https://www.wjhl.com/local/nws-noaa-weather-radio-transmitter-knocked-out-by-storms/1316293579

Here is the Kingsport power outage story....

https://www.wjhl.com/local/thousands-without-power-in-the-tri-cities/1313358631

Here are some slide shows...

https://www.wjhl.com/news/viewer-photos-720-severe-thunderstorms/1315189683

https://www.wjhl.com/local/nightwatchman-pinned-inside-truck-tree-crashed-onto-camper-at-warriors-path-state-park/1314446733

https://www.timesnews.net/gallery/Friday-night-storms

Just returned from Montana in the YNP area.  What a trip!  Fished and saw plenty of wildlife.  I have been many times, but this was a first for my kids.   And the weather...highs near 80(no humidity) and lows in the low to mid 40s.  Awesome.  Then to return home to highs in the upper 70s yesterday.  Even better.  Glad that we are getting a respite from the furnace this week.  I am sure that we will still have some Dog Days, but every day now is one more step to fall.  I now look forward to that first cool front that makes for blue skies and a cool morning which is probably at least 6-7 weeks away...but still.  

On 7/9/2018 at 11:52 AM, nrgjeff said:

Euro monthlies rundown follows, verbatim with little (serious) commentary. Charts came out last week.

July looks hot. What's new? August and September have a reasonable look, seasonably warm but not a bad whipping compared to July. Aug-Sept is believable if El Nino can start to influence.

October, November, and December show trough west ridge east. Tee up severe weather! Actually, probably not. Who believes shoulder month forecasts? Mild December makes sense if El Nino but October and November are notoriously fickle and variable.

January is shown colder than normal. Typical El Nino winters feature a turn colder at some point. Recent Nino cases have been second half of January. Like others above, six months out I will punt forecasting precip. 

Thanks for the great info.  Seems like a logical sequence qiven the pattern progression.  Waiting on those "second half" winters is brutal around the forum.   LOL.  Lots of cliff jumping predicted.  Maybe Mother Nature will throw us a bone early just to break-up the monotony.  That said, if the Nino is weak, sometimes things can get rolling in early January.  Hopefully we don't see any ultra-early snows...those seem to be bad, bad mojo for MBY.  

On 7/10/2018 at 12:03 AM, jaxjagman said:

Not horrid looking anyways,right now

And if Nino climo is in play...December would be warm w January and February being cold which "might" mean that January and February are seasonal to slightly BN which is plenty good here.  But yeah, I would take that map with the caveat that cold source regions look pretty "iffy."  The seasonal temps are likely due to seasonal or AN precip.  Still, better than trying to get it to snow during a prolonged drought.

Interesting to see the LR stuff after d7...seems like the Euro really wants to dump "cooler" air into the lee of the northern Rockies while he CMC and GFS push that air substantially further SE.  Not sure what the bias is...but seems the CMC/GFS combo may offer some hope in 8-10 days for a break in the heat.  Right now, pretty easy call is seasonal to just AN...beginning in about 8-10 days.  For now...HOT!

8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

NMME update during "DJF"

As Jeff noted, not sure the North Pacific helps us....but that is a decent look if maybe on the "too warm" side for the Nino.  Now, what is interesting is the EC of NA w those above normal temps.  Looks like Noreaster city w a Nino in place - just a layman's opinion on my part so TIFWIW.

Much needed rain this evening IMBY....always weird to watch a thunderstorm complex approach from the NE.  Very rare.

Thanks for the thread, Jax...I waffle back and forth like crazy on this.  I lean weak Nino climo...but if that does not happen then all bets are off.  So, precip slightly above...temps normal...no idea on snow.  Patterns are such a crap shoot for snow....  Last winter was a great example.  Incredible cold and basically a mini-drought due to a RAGING -EPO.  Snow is a timing thing.  Nina patterns often result in poor timing because the patterns are just dry...not enough times at the plate to grab a baseball analogy.  Nino patterns are often rainy, but give you plenty of more chances for snow because when the cold does come in its less extreme form...you have a real chance.  I like weak Nina's just because they can be really cold.  Weak Ninos are the money pattern for snow...still not sold that happens this winter but believing it to be of slightly higher likelihood than not.

Wonder if the Euro Weeklies are a blip...they are fairly at odds w the 12z ensemble(I realized they are founded from 0z)?  MUCH cooler in the northwest over the next couple of weeks compared to the 12z ensembles...warmer overall in the East.  Fits w Jeff's analysis that the Nina is hard to shake right now.  It might have jumped the gun a tad on the Nino w previous runs...Like Jeff, I do think the atmosphere will eventually get there.  If we are going to have a decent winter...it needs to get hopping.  But hey, looking like a really good call from Jeff.

I thought this was pretty interesting...

https://news.agu.org/press-release/coldest-place-on-earth-is-colder-than-scientists-thought/

@nrgjeff, thanks for the Weeklies comments.  I just looked at the Euro maps.  Seems pretty consistent w the "cool down."  Like you say, even slightly BN during our hottest time of the year is still very warm.  Conversely, if it was winter, I wouldn't fret at all if the temps were slightly AN for January as there would be plenty of cold for snow.  Do you think we are entering a new pattern or just watching the old pattern burn-out?  I can't tell if the Nino is taking hold or if the pattern from last winter is still continuing? It would be nice to see the BN temps trend into fall....

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah i agree.The MJO is fixing to get into the IO around by the looks the next day or so by the Euro,the GEFS like normal into the IO is doing a funky dance and wants to retrograde the MJO back towards Africa But the Euro shows the MJO slowing down  as it progresses back into the COD,going into the COD isn't a bad thing though,especially when it get's into region 4,stronger MJO into that region,potential SER in July.

For temps upcoming,who knows if it's right,right now.The Euro shows the warmest temps in the TYS area with temps hitting 99 and DP's at 68.8,this would be a heat index of 106 next Saturday

Good catch on the heat wave.  I was looking well past that originally - I always search for an early fall though it rarely happens.  The 18z GFS has 102 in southeast KY one week from Tuesday on its grids....Plateau torch!  I am sure folks at 2-3K' will be fine...but that is some serious heat!

16 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Deleted my earlier post by mistake.

Asia shows the heights rising and ridging on going , so it's looking like a potential height rise in the Valley somewhere for possibly the highest temps of the season upcoming

Yep.  Fits the Euro Weeklies pretty well.  Looks like seasonal is on the horizon after that - but as a caveat, we all all know how difficult those ridges are to move once established.  I do think Nino limo will "cool" temps back to normal for mid-July to late August.  I always get these mixed up....so w Nino expect a cool fall, warm early winter, cold mid-late w few extremes?

Going to miss John Ward.  He was my eyes and ears for Tennessee football for many, many years.  He was awesome.

Been on vacation in southwest FL.  Managed to dodge the red tide by 48 hours(preceded us) and the Lake O water release never made it to our area.  We were blessed with a great, great week of weather - maybe the best I have ever had at the beach.  Cool mornings, light breeze, and rain only at night.  Saw some huge storms inland as the sea breeze forms them each evening.  Hey, here is a funny/scary story.  So, we stopped at the "Welcome to Florida" rest stop on the way down.  We hit the bathroom and were waiting on the rest of the crew while sitting on a bench just outside.  Bam! Lightning ripped overhead.  One of those popcorn storms had generated pretty quickly over us, and I did not pay attention to it on the way in.  Scared the heck out of us.   That is like the third random lightning strike that I have been around during the last 2-3 years.  Not a fan!  Made my ears ring for a couple of hours.

Blight update...been trimming out the diseased foliage, rain has eased up which slows the spread, and I am using organic Copper Fungicide by Bonide.  Spreading has been reduced by about 90%.  Also added fish emulsion to each plant.  

6 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

We. Need. Rain.

Super wet has turned super dry and it hasn't taken long at all for the grass to go from green to brown.  Hoping to hit a scattered storm later this week (the non-severe kind of course)

Yes we do.  With this heat, it does not take long for things to dry out.   Spent about an hour watering the garden and plants and some new grass(just patches).  

Less long term cooling in the NW this Weekly's run and fairly significant cooling east of the Mississippi - really the second of the 46 day model.   

Kind of an interesting trend on the Weeklies. The Mountains West is cooling-off as is Texas.  Our forum area is warmer(but not terribly so...it is summer after all) w some BN working in later in the time period. Will be interesting to see the Weeklies this evening as they should be settled-in after the seasonal change - meaning a more consistent look from run to run.