Carvers Gap

Mid 70s on August 1st for highs?  I will take it.  Sitting at 70F w rain around 4:00 PM.  This does not feel like August...but again, I am not complaining at all.  

It has been a great day.  Not too hot.  We have worked in the garden most of the day.  Miss those nighttime lows in MT though - mid 40s.  

Been an excellent tomato, carrot, potato, bean, pepper, squash, and okra year.  Probably my best tomato year in a long, long time - the copper spray as a fungicide has been more than money.  Will try to post some pics, but am out of memory space for my account.  During the last couple of years, I was tucking-in large portions of the garden early due to dry conditions.  I still have a good part of the garden still "in play" right now.  

I can handle temps in the mid 80s during the worst of summer, even upper 80s.  Every day we steal from the grips of Dog Days is one less day from potentially the hottest time of the year.  Kind of like the reverse of winter when we sometimes get AN temps during the middle of our coldest time frame in January.  The LR models and Euro Weeklies(see also the JAMSTEC that Jax posted...) seem to be transitioning to a Nino-is pattern.  Seems like they jumped the gun once...but I suspect this is a legit transition now w the amount of rain we are receiving.

7 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Kinda Modoki look into fall by Jamstec,we haven't had a good fall severe for some time.

Good find.  The Euro Weeklies from yesterday likely support that.  BN heights and AN precip over the SE, though they certainly have the coldest temps in the lee of the Rockies.  That look is pretty consistent throughout its 46 day run with maybe some weakening of the cold in the lee of the central Rockies.  

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Still a bit sore about this in my attempt to find 'lessons learned'. Clearly, with respect to the outlook/risk zones pre-Friday PM, this system overachieved on the east side. Curious if any could make a case that this was NOT a low verification score event. I guess for now I'll hang my 'future reference' hat on this: On sharp right turning systems, pay close attention to stable/sinking air intrusion from the northwest. Storms will likely fire on both sides of this zone as the SPC storm report graphic confirms (per NashvilleSevereWx). Or to put it another way, perhaps this system was the winter storm equivalent of dry-slotting. Just some raw ideas for thought...

Flash, great share and post.  I wonder if time of day saved Nashville along w the ideas that you mentioned?  I think NE TN took it on the chin because the storms fired and held together late in the day into the evening.  But totally agree that systems that turn sharp, right-turning systems have to be watched.  

I might have missed a post about this...We were out of town last week as mentioned in the banter thread.  However, because we were two hours behind in the Rockies, I saw the thunderstorm lines approaching Kingsport.  I actually contacted my family to let them know that they were incoming.  Colonial Heights go absolutely hammered.  My house was without power for 24 hours after initially not being without power.  A tree came down the next night which I assume was damaged on Friday.  As of last night some homes had been without power for 48 hours.    Heck, I even think the NOAA transmitter was knocked out... I would not be surprised if other posters in the area were/are without power.  Cooks Valley was hit pretty hard as well.  @Windspeed, how did you fair?

https://www.wjhl.com/local/nws-noaa-weather-radio-transmitter-knocked-out-by-storms/1316293579

Here is the Kingsport power outage story....

https://www.wjhl.com/local/thousands-without-power-in-the-tri-cities/1313358631

Here are some slide shows...

https://www.wjhl.com/news/viewer-photos-720-severe-thunderstorms/1315189683

https://www.wjhl.com/local/nightwatchman-pinned-inside-truck-tree-crashed-onto-camper-at-warriors-path-state-park/1314446733

https://www.timesnews.net/gallery/Friday-night-storms

On 7/9/2018 at 11:52 AM, nrgjeff said:

Euro monthlies rundown follows, verbatim with little (serious) commentary. Charts came out last week.

July looks hot. What's new? August and September have a reasonable look, seasonably warm but not a bad whipping compared to July. Aug-Sept is believable if El Nino can start to influence.

October, November, and December show trough west ridge east. Tee up severe weather! Actually, probably not. Who believes shoulder month forecasts? Mild December makes sense if El Nino but October and November are notoriously fickle and variable.

January is shown colder than normal. Typical El Nino winters feature a turn colder at some point. Recent Nino cases have been second half of January. Like others above, six months out I will punt forecasting precip. 

Thanks for the great info.  Seems like a logical sequence qiven the pattern progression.  Waiting on those "second half" winters is brutal around the forum.   LOL.  Lots of cliff jumping predicted.  Maybe Mother Nature will throw us a bone early just to break-up the monotony.  That said, if the Nino is weak, sometimes things can get rolling in early January.  Hopefully we don't see any ultra-early snows...those seem to be bad, bad mojo for MBY.  

On 7/10/2018 at 12:03 AM, jaxjagman said:

Not horrid looking anyways,right now

And if Nino climo is in play...December would be warm w January and February being cold which "might" mean that January and February are seasonal to slightly BN which is plenty good here.  But yeah, I would take that map with the caveat that cold source regions look pretty "iffy."  The seasonal temps are likely due to seasonal or AN precip.  Still, better than trying to get it to snow during a prolonged drought.

8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

NMME update during "DJF"

As Jeff noted, not sure the North Pacific helps us....but that is a decent look if maybe on the "too warm" side for the Nino.  Now, what is interesting is the EC of NA w those above normal temps.  Looks like Noreaster city w a Nino in place - just a layman's opinion on my part so TIFWIW.

Much needed rain this evening IMBY....always weird to watch a thunderstorm complex approach from the NE.  Very rare.

Thanks for the thread, Jax...I waffle back and forth like crazy on this.  I lean weak Nino climo...but if that does not happen then all bets are off.  So, precip slightly above...temps normal...no idea on snow.  Patterns are such a crap shoot for snow....  Last winter was a great example.  Incredible cold and basically a mini-drought due to a RAGING -EPO.  Snow is a timing thing.  Nina patterns often result in poor timing because the patterns are just dry...not enough times at the plate to grab a baseball analogy.  Nino patterns are often rainy, but give you plenty of more chances for snow because when the cold does come in its less extreme form...you have a real chance.  I like weak Nina's just because they can be really cold.  Weak Ninos are the money pattern for snow...still not sold that happens this winter but believing it to be of slightly higher likelihood than not.

Blight update...been trimming out the diseased foliage, rain has eased up which slows the spread, and I am using organic Copper Fungicide by Bonide.  Spreading has been reduced by about 90%.  Also added fish emulsion to each plant.  

On 6/4/2018 at 9:12 AM, nrgjeff said:

Actually was getting dry for a bit. @Carvers Gap is right. Now with the death ridge out West, the Valley should have adequate precip. 

Low humidity does feel much better @jaxjagman. Hallelujah!

Yesterday was awesome!  

On 6/4/2018 at 10:04 AM, Stovepipe said:

If you decide to plant fruit trees or berry bushes this fall, check out http://www.penseberryfarm.com/.  That's where I ordered all my stuff.  They are located in Arkansas and are decently priced.  More importantly, they have all the information on that site for pairing up compatible varieties.  If you don't have the right pairs of trees/bushes within a pollinator's distance you may not get fruit.  My Pense order this spring consisted of 2 apples, 1 plum, 1 peach, 2 kiwis, 2 elderberrys, 2 honeyberrys, and 2 gooseberrys.  I also put in some grapes, a fig, and 2 goji berries from Lowes.  I put some of these in partial sun so I may not get the best result but I'm going to experiment and see what works.

Following permaculture advise from friend that is an instructor, I've been building garden beds around each tree and putting in plants that support it in a variety of ways.  These "guilds" consist of onions, daffodils, dill, comfrey, yarrow, bee balm, sun flowers, and some strawberries and asparagus.  Again, it's a bit experimental but I always like to try a few new things every year and see what works best for my yard.

Oh, and regarding dwarf varieties.  I've had people tell me that true dwarfs don't do particularly good in east TN and that it's better to go with a semi-drwarf and just keep them pruned well.  Pense uses optimal root stocks on their trees.  You can google the name of the root stock listed and read about it's properties.  Something to think about and research further before you pull the trigger.

GREAT info, Stovepipe.  I would definitely like to buy trees from a place of similar latitude.  The sites that I use currently for heirlooms are...

https://www.rareseeds.com

...and I do still use Seedsavers and Southern Exposure.  I get my sweet potato slips from a TN farm...

https://tatorman.com

Yeah...I was the one who complained about how dry spring was getting to be just a few weeks ago.  

So far, this looks like it will be a good year for squash(have cool Italian and Lebanese heirlooms that I think will produce...Rigosa Friulana and Lebanese, respectfully), okra, melons, strawberries, and beans.  As mentioned above, I think my tomatoes will be average in productions.  Last year, I had 96 lbs of sweet potatoes pulled from a 25' row.  I will gladly take half of that.  Those things were massive.  The sweet potatoes should do well again this year.  I am trying a variety of fingerling potatoes again this year of a bit of an absence.  My main crop of potatoes are Cranberry(All Red) and German Butterball.

On 6/1/2018 at 9:44 AM, Stovepipe said:

Glad your garden is thriving too!  As far as tomato blight I don't really have an answer for you as I've not had widespread problems with it.  Although, I do have one random plant that is yellowing and it may very well be due to that.  Last night I pour a compost tea made from chicken poop and comfrey on it, we'll see what happens.

 

I have a few fava beans going this year as well for the first time, evidently I picked the wrong year to try em haha.  Historically I've planted bell beans in the fall as a cover crop along with winter rye.  They are similar to fava beans but are cold hardy and survive the winter.

Along with the annual warm season stuff I've tried to focus on getting perennials setup this year.  We got pear, peach, plum, apple, and kiwi trees in the ground along with a variety of berry bushes.  Throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks in this zone.  The backyard is turning into a food forest!

I am definitely considering fruit trees...however, deer are a HUGE problem in my neighborhood.  My garden has a 6' fence which deter them, because these deer are relatively and thankfully short.  I have a standard Rio Grande fence for the yard which is barely an inconvenience for them - the aforementioned garden fence is Fort Knox w a lower level of chicken wire embedded in the ground to stop groundhogs.  I suppose I could cage each tree until they are big enough - would make mowing a pain though.  I want to plant plums and apples.  I found some dwarf varieties that will work in terms of space.  I will likely plant some in the fall if time permits.  I had intended to this spring. Keep us updated.   Hey, it is raining so much and w the high humidity....I can barely keep my yard mowed!  LOL.

On 6/1/2018 at 10:03 AM, Juliancolton said:

Early blight is pretty much impossible to completely stave off, but you can certainly delay the onset and slow spreading. The most important preventative measure you can take is to prune all leaves, branches, and suckers within about a foot of the ground. The disease starts when dirt containing the fungus splashes up on foliage, so if you can avoid that, it'll go a long way toward keeping the plant healthy longer. Combine that with a normal Daconil type fungicide, and fertilize with Neptune's Harvest or some other slow-release form of nitrogen to ensure that new growth keeps pace with the dying lower vegetation.

Thank you for the post and stop by often!  I normally trim the yellow leaves off...sometimes I wonder if I spread it by working in the tomatoes by doing this.  I usually try to make sure the plants are dry before working in them, and that my scissors are cleaned after each use.  I also put diseased plant material well away from the garden.  I do rotate my tomatoes.  About half of my plants are hybrids that are resistant to blight.  However, we have had a period of near tropical warmth and humidity....that is a killer in my garden.  Now, I only have one or two plants where the yellowing has begun.  I like @Stovepipe 's compost tea idea.  I may have to resort to Daconil as a fungicide.  I have tried to be generally organic in my garden practices over the past few years, but that can be tough at this latitude w the nightshade family.  I did resort to using Sevin this year to hold off some bugs that were in my cucumbers and also in my watermelons.  I think one practice that I will discontinue is using wood chips as garden path material  near the tomatoes.  I have read that chips sometimes can weaken tomato plants.  I should get a decent crop, but late season tomatoes may be doomed in my garden - LOL.  Another solution might be to plant tomatoes that are early producers?  That way they can beat the blight.  What I am really looking for is something to slow down the situation - compost tea and Daconil are probably the most realistic fixes.

Stove, how do you make your compost tea?

I will add that the quickly warming weather has put the kibosh on my fava beans.  They needed just normal temps for May....they are similar to peas in that they need it cool.  I still may get a few.  Ah well, such is life.  

@StovepipeJust tagging on to your comment in the pattern thread...my garden has gone nuts!  That said, I am worried that this humidity is going to allow tomato blight to take hold.  Do you have anything that you apply to your tomatoes to keep them from getting the blight that begins as yellow leaves on the bottom of the plant and then works its way up - anti fungal spray or fertilizer?

You know when SSWs happen during the winter...often those winters will flip to spring(often ending early and never looking back).  Winter weather and temps lasted into mid-April here and then....bam - summer!  We went very warm after that.   My garden looks like a jungle.  I am afraid w the humidity that disease won't be far behind.  Might need to post a question in the garden thread come to think of it.....Now, the Euro Weeklies do show a "moderating trend" during July.  We will see if that continues to hold during tonight's run.  They would imply normal to slightly BN temps for the eastern half of the forum area.  Now, as Jeff points out, normal temps in July are still hot though.

7 hours ago, rolltide_130 said:

Don't rule out a severe threat for the first few days of June - GFS has been holding the idea and some of the thermos are flat out riduclious for Dixie Alley. Shear is meh but if some of the CAPE profiles verify, it may not matter much especially with the SE motion that seems likely. 

Thanks, roll tide.  Good info!

Rain has picked-up in coverage and intensity during the past hour.  Very thankful for that.  It is never a good sign when one is hoping for rain during spring.  That said, we may be in the middle of a pattern shift to a wetter scenario.  Tough to tell if it is the same pattern which will now yield different precip results as summer sets-in OR if it is a new one w return flow from the GOM.  A normal summer(maybe slightly above for temps and precip) pattern appears to be on tap which is fine with me in regards to temps and precip.  @nrgjeff, what do you think?  Edit...sorry, I should have placed that last question in the pattern discussion thread!

It managed to not rain IMBY yesterday.  Getting some sprinkles now.  Well, at least it was cloudy.  MRX has heavy rain for my point and click forecast on Thursday.