Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    17,420

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    In regards to early season storms, we have been playing with house money in E TN for the past decade or so. Climatology doesn't really support snow here until late December. On the flip, Nina does support colder Decembers here. So far, everything we are seeing is fairly text book La Nina...dry fall(drought, followed by rain increasing during winter, cutters on modeling which favor middle and western forum areas,,,, For E TN to score, we need the cold to continue to press eastward. The Greenland block "should" support storms going to our south. Then, it is just a crapshoot as to where it curves northeast(if it does at all). Lots of solutions available in modeling still. The cold pattern is about 8 days later than originally modeled, but it is on it way it appears. I think the real action occurs is when the PNA pops out west in conjunction w/ the NAO. Oddly, we need to see the SER flexing its muscle just enough.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies....Yup. Will post more later.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro and 12z GFS are in agreement for d9-10? LOL. Pattern is loaded up in about ten days(where have we heard that before?!). In all seriousness, it does look good. I have said for a while, I like the Plateau westward for this. But last tnwxnut stated, just depends on where the boundary sets up.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Textbook La Nina storm track....I couldn't draw it up any better. The upcoming wx pattern is just screaming for that track.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I will be glad to share some GFS/GEFS stuff, but we probably should have everyone sign a waiver before viewing them. LOL. The 18z CFSv2 says, "What January thaw?"
  6. Carvers Gap
    Oh yeah, for sure. Looks like our best chances are the week prior to Christmas and maybe just after.
  7. Carvers Gap
    We need a strong block and a slight SER. I think we get both.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is trying to turn out my power on Christmas Eve-eve. The GFS is again advertising an over-running event. No idea if I trust the model, but it has had some consistency in showing that run to run. My guess is that will shift to middle and west...but who knows with that block suppressing things.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Jump right in. We need more folks from middle and west TN. Looks like a nice set-up incoming. Models are going to understandably have a difficult time. Euro hangs-up the cold in the Plains - I think the cold gets further east and I would think its ensemble will show that. This is the type of signal we saw when west TN got hammered a few years back.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Boundary will be difficult to predict at this range, but that is a gradient storm look on the Euro.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Looks like it may get shunted across the mid-gulf States. That looks a lot like the 12z GFS.
  12. Carvers Gap
    At 156 snow is breaking out over northern Louisiana.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro at 150 is the setup. No idea if this run delivers, but that is a good look. Precip building over TX. Boundary over the upper south.
  14. Carvers Gap
    There are ingredients (just spitballing) for a multi-wave over-running event for somewhere in the forum area sometime between the 17th and Christmas. If the GEFS can be believed(huge IF), the over-running characteristic are readily apparent. The gradient sets east-west over the forum area, and then the GOM moisture runs along it. The CMC is suppressed, but it has been overdoing the cold of late. Chance are that gradient is north of where it has it. The ICON has that look. Somewhere between the great bend of the TN River in Alabama and the Ohio...there is a chance for a gradient winter storm.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Dec 17th has possibilities....
  16. Carvers Gap
    Decent snow means showing up on the ensembles(GEPS and GEFS) so far.
  17. Carvers Gap
    At minimum, an upslope NW flow event looks on tap for next weekend. I am definitely watching that slp pop just to our SE. Something to watch. Dare we say the pattern is almost in reach?
  18. Carvers Gap
    ICON and GFS at 12z have some fairly interesting solutions - meaning passes by low pressure to our south.
  19. Carvers Gap
    That was good discussion by you all. I haven't read that article yet. Normally, the GFS has had some predictable tendencies...too cold in the long range, too progressive with storms along the coast inside day 7, too quick to break down HL blocks. Once one factored all of that in, it was usable. What it is doing right now just doesn't seem usable - not predictable and erratic. I was almost wondering if it was handling the MJO regions poorly or just not getting SSTs correctly modeled(edit). I thought I someone note that the jet was being handled differently by it as well. It did get right the push back of the pattern change, so I hate to discount it completely. It is almost like it is overdoing the heat at the mid latitudes, and giving the jet too much strength as a result.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Normally rolling with whichever model is warmest is not a bad idea. Right now, I am not so certain that modeling is cold enough.
  21. Carvers Gap
    If the cold arrives this weekend, the GFS is already in “bust mode” as it, at one point, had several runs over the forum area never went below normal and was under a standing wave. The model is likely behind right now, and won’t catch up until the pattern changes. But I still cast a wary eye. Thus question is worth asking so that we ourselves don’t follow bad modeling off a cliff.....What exactly is the GFS handling poorly? Is it a bias? Is it right on some level when biases are accounted for? Or is it off-the-wall bad right now? One set of models is in for a fairly significant bust.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Been super busy for the past couple of days. If you haven't looked at today's ensembles, you should. No idea if right...but. The ensembles are close to the coldest that I have seen them in the d10-15. Pretty rare to see ten degrees below the average at that range on the EPS. The actual EPS at 12z was throwing at a big dog pattern. Looks like the first cold front is still moving forward in time around the 16th.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Afternoon ensembles were pretty much a beaut, Clark.
  24. Carvers Gap
    If I lived in northwest TN right now...I would be chomping at the bit. The pattern is loaded for bear from a line from Memphis to Nashville and northwest. I hope NE TN can get in on the action (not holding my breath). A classic Nina cold weather outbreak is set for the western half of the state IMHO. I am really interested to see if that line can press further SE.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Nina winters are huge for the northern Rockies in terms of snowfall. Water content in the snow can lack at times as it did last winter - lots of cold, fluffy snow and water content was low.
×
×
  • Create New...