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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    One thing I always have to remind myself. We live at a latitude known as the subtropics. It wants to rain here for all but six weeks out of the year(Jan-early Feb).
  2. Carvers Gap
    Additionally, December is rarely our month for snow. It has been recently, but historically the valley rarely scores big snows prior to the fourth week in December. Our best climatology is January to the first week of February. So, we are fighting general climatology as well. NAOs are often the coldest in January and February. In general, it doesn't want to snow in the valleys during December - even old school eras as well.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I placed an answer in banter. Look no further than the upcoming cold shot than to see its effects. An active subtropical jet (STJ) would have had us digging out for a month. Nina climatology (dry) is fighting us all the way. Many historic Kocin storms and historic cold outbreaks have -NAOs. The bigger issue is the lack of frequency in regards to precip. That is related to issues on the Pacific side and not Atlantic. Additionally, one teleconnection is rarely the magic bullet. The PNA/EPO is a great pattern for middle and west TN. Sometimes it is just the luck of the draw. Without the NAO, we are probably sitting in the 70s for December w/ the rising QBO and poor Pacific set-up (to this point). The NAO is actually offsetting some really bad teleconnections. When the NAO relaxes(if we don't have a strong enough PNA), watch what happens w/ temps....
  4. Carvers Gap
    NAO is a much bigger signal for cold in January and February. It is associated w/ many historical cold outbreaks and Kocin storms. Right now we are fighting Nina climatology and a rising QBO(solar as well). One teleconnection by itself is rarely a silver bullet. One need to look no further than the cold shot to see the effects of a -NAO. The Nina is a dry pattern for E TN often - not always. The dry pattern is the problem. If we had an active STJ in conjunction w/ the current NAO....we would need a snow blower.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Will be out and about today, so hold the fort down. The LR on the CFSv2 does have the Chinook. The good thing is it looks like a +PNA type of pattern for January. If so, that will work. We just need normal temps to score in January.
  6. Carvers Gap
    My main take away from last night's runs is that the pattern may very well be active even after the cold front comes along. The boundary gets set, and systems slide along it. Northern stream emphasis is a nickel and dime ticket, but it does pay. The CMC and GFS both have this look. The Euro is sort of on an island after d7....edit the CFSv2 does support is somewhat just not to that extreme.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS, as did the CMC about a day later, has a slider which would give light snow to nearly everyone in the forum area after the 23rd/24th system. I have the discussion for it in the pattern thread so as to keep the two systems separate for now. We can slide it over here when needed. Hopefully, that means that the northern stream is going to be active similar to 14-15.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The Canadian has this but is a day later. That would be a very good look for people also in southern areas of the forum.
  9. Carvers Gap
    It appears the 6z GFS has another round of light snow in western forum areas on Christmas completely unrelated to the storm on the 23rd/24th. Yep, looks like a northern stream piece of energy is diving in along the Arctic boundary. If real, that is a good look as cold air is already in place - a slider.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I am going to use the other thread for the 23rd system for right now. The 6z GFS is trying to get something going on the 25th now as well.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS still goes w/ a powerful Noreaster. It does pop a low over Erie, so it does see the potential for a more westward solution. At one point it has a low was of Detroit, one over maybe PA, and one off the SE coast. There is more snow in Ohio on that run which tells me more energy was held back west of the Apps. I think that is a reasonable run as wonky as it was. The Euro seems too wound up. It makes sense to pop a coastal or a slp in the GOM(which this GFS run has) due to the strength of the front. The 500vort map definitely had a more shallow run over the TN Valley.
  12. Carvers Gap
    At 135, the GFS has a slp in the eastern Panhandle. Got think that is gonna make some sparks here in a few.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Something to consider, the 0z EPS is much different over the Aleutians d10-15. It is much warmer than other modeling in the LR. Its 500mb pattern over the continental US/Canada looks similar to other modeling, but the strength of that low is causing very warm temp anomalies. I can't find that on other models, especially over the eastern US. It makes me wonder if there is an issue w/ the model in the northwest Pacific. It seems like it is stalling systems in error.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Having the ICON climb on board gets me back to 55/45 it is going to happen as the GFS has it. I think the Euro is playing into some old biases. @Holston_River_Rambler, what are you doing up so early? As for me, we had a carbon monoxide detector battery go bad. The periodic beep was driving us crazy. LOL. We have been wondering through the house for about fifteen minutes trying to find which detector was bad. As any good wx hobby person would do, I sat down and looked at modeling instead of going back to bed.
  15. Carvers Gap
    It is important to remember....we still have ~ten more weeks of winter.
  16. Carvers Gap
    They are probably riding the 89-90 analog. The 500mb map is good for most of Jan(through the 20th at least). The source region is suspect as Canada is scoured by cold. But...we only need seasonal temps to score in January. I tend to lean 10-11 as my analog for this year. There is a pretty decent signal for cold during the second and third weeks of January.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Nah, man. We got your back. And please don't quit creating threads.
  18. Carvers Gap
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS looks awfully similar to the 12z GFS...awfully similar.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 18z would be a strikeout for much of the E TN valley. I would be super happy for you all out west, and that track would fit the last two great winters for middle and west TN. That run would yield nearly nothing for the E TN valley - model smoothing(high amounts in the mountains) causes the valleys to appear as if they have snow. A slp moving through E TN is usually a non-starter. Still, a LONG ways to go before this system is nailed down. To me, that was a fairly huge step towards the Euro/CMC. It is a cave in that direction. Now, I am not sold on things cutting into this block. Right now, I would set a one from Fayetteville to Nashville w/ backside mood flakes in E TN.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The one I am thinking of is a line graph w/ time as the x-axis and model verification as the y-axis. One model is represented w/ triangle points, another squares, and so on.....I am heading out the door or would dig a bit more.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, I should have been more specific. Looking for the one which compares the GFS to other global modeling.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The GFS has been absolutely terrible since the upgrade. Last winter, it definitely led the way on multiple occasions. I would like to get some recent verification scores for the GFS (short, medium, and long range). Seems like it has done better during the past week or so. That said, the GFS was abysmal in the medium and long range when predicting this cold outbreak. If I remember correctly, it kept sticking the upcoming trough in the west and missed the timing on the cold outbreak almost completely - looked like it misread the MJO. At one point the upgrade was scoring worse than its predecessor. OTH, the bias of the Euro(amping things up) could certainly be in play. However, that is usually not the game of the CMC. Sometimes the Euro holds energy back in error, and sometimes it is right...but it pretty much does this for almost every system in the d7 range during winter. The only support the GFS has is the JMA. The JMA used to be fairly accurate when hunting big storms. Now, it just throws darts w/ a blindfold on..... Seriously, at this range...it is nearly impossible to get a decent read on a system. For now this is what we probably know....it is going to get really cold. There is going to be a strong cold front(likely some frozen precip along it). There is going to be a storm - Plains likely, but not set in stone.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Does anyone have the most updated verification scores for modeling inside of days 10, 7, and 5?
  25. Carvers Gap
    In the LR, looks this cold shot will break fast as a continent wide chinook looks to develop later this month and into early January(500 pattern doesn't change a ton, but enough to allow maritime air into the pattern). The BN heights in Alaska are at odds with the trough in the SE. Something is going to give there. As is, the BN heights in Alaska flood the top of the PNA ridge w/ maritime air. Most modeling has had this, but maybe not the the extreme seen on the 12z suite. We still keep the trough - no cold in early January to dump into it (poor source regions). That said, this original cold pattern looked to lack a good source region and that changed. I agree w/ Tellico above, the operationals (at 7 days out) are just another ensemble.
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