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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Is it just me or did the 18z GEFS just flip the trough in the LR back to the East? The CMC has a similar look. 12z CFSv2 has a similar look. Surprised to see the GEFS move.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, will be interesting to see what finally comes of this.
  3. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Jax put the ninja on me as well... I am going to add one more possibility to the 3 above: 4. The northern stream vortex dominates and NE TN/ SE KY/ SW VA get a decent clipper of 2-3" out of that. The 18z ICON has a similar solution. I am sure there are about 10 more that I missed, but those seem to be the common looks on modeling.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Good find. With roughly 1/3 to 1/2 of recent operational GFS solutions having a slp(ensuing precip shield as well) climb the length the eastern seaboard(almost right along the coast), this will be interesting to see which camp of solutions wins. For now, the OTS option looks slightly more likely, but who knows in light of that discussion. That is a very strong vortex coming through next weekend. The CMC does demonstrate the camp of solutions which manage to gain latitude. If models are breaking down blocking too quickly, that would almost certainly change the location of the potential storm.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I think we see one of three things occurring in no particular order: 1. Modeling is in error in dragging its heals in the southwest. 2. That low is going to cut-off in the southwest. Seems like modeling is caught between solutions one and two. Either solution would like produce a big storm. Obviously, timing would change if the the low cuts-off. 3. May just get strung out. With that trough swinging through at 500, have to think something pops. May just be too many pieces for modeling to juggle. But still, a strung out solution has happened many, many times in the past. Interestingly, my yard is not dry at this point. Fall was just rough here in terms of drought. Off the top of my head, IMBY we went 2-3 weeks without precip, maybe on more than one occasion. I rarely just let my garden go during the fall, but we did this year. Didn't even plant any fall crops due to the warm temps and dry soil...and also being busy. I need to get in my garden and work, but it is too muddy. Our rivers and creeks are finally at normal levels again. There is snow still on shady banks in Colonial Heights. Saw some this AM. We ar going to put in a couple of cold frames this spring(built but on in the garden yet). I hope to get my low tunnel up this week. Let's hope La Nina fades quickly. I don't want to be in a rainfall deficit early in the growing season.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And from there, I highly doubt we see that setup verify. That is a really weird evolution. LOL. Can't even begin to describe it.
  7. Carvers Gap
    At 114, this looks a lot like 18z yesterday.
  8. Carvers Gap
    With that digging like that, I don't think modeling has this nailed down. JB used to call that area money in the bank, i.e. at some point it is coming out and forming a storm.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I wonder if the eventual solution is the low gets cut off in the Southwest and then meanders through the SE. Ninja to Holston. FTR, I had not read Chill's comments. But if that is the eventual solution, ALL BETS are off down stream. At that point, it becomes a bowling ball.
  10. Carvers Gap
    At 96, this is not a weak vortex over Utah. This is different than the last two runs.
  11. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is rolling.
  12. Carvers Gap
    So the 12z CMC has it this go around.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Both the 0z CMC and 6z GFS have the storm in almost the same spot they have had it for days, just weaker. The phase is different with almost each run. Modeling has trended away from a stronger phase of late, but let's see where this goes during the next couple of days. We are kind of at the point where modeling loses storms only to regain that look 4-5 days out. But with a slp reflection in the near the exact place as found yesterday, the potential still exists for a significant storm along the EC. The GDPS ensemble is probably most aggressive as it very close mimics some of the stronger operational runs from the past two days. The biggest trend is a later phase. We need an earlier phase. For NE TN, SE KY, and SW VA...the northern stream system is on most modeling. This could potentially result in 1-3" of snow over the area, even the valleys. With that strong of an impulse in the northern stream....that alone bears some watching. I also wouldn't rule out 1-2 threats immediately after the weekend system. As John notes, a pattern shake-up is plausible/ highly likely as the trough retrogrades into the West. At that point, we will likely see some nice February days with intermittent cold as it is very likely the cold will push at times with that type of pattern. Still, we have gotten much more winter than I would have envisioned for this winter. Plus, the Vols got a hard fought and much needed win last night on the hard court.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Uros.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Here is what is odd...If this was a rogue run, that is now three rogue runs out of the last nine. Seems like an off-run would not be repeated without some support at some level. It is worth noting as well that this type of solution isn’t just showing up on the GFS. We are seeing this setup across modeling along with hit or miss big runs. I tend to think models might be honing-in on a big storm. The 12z Euro had a nice storm right after the one the GFS has had. The ingredients are there for a big storm. Whether it happens, no idea. Obviously, nothing is a certainty at this range.
  16. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I ended up doing what I said I wasn't going to do anyway. The model might be feeding back along the coast, but if that storms slows/stalls it is going to gain strength. That is the track sequence of a big storm - slp originates in the GOM and the northern stream punches the turbo boost.
  17. Carvers Gap
    60+mph winds long the coast at 10m. The tide in Chesapeake Bay would be ripping. Just one run, but incredibly impressive to see that look now 3x out of 9 runs. Obviously not set in stone, but the wildest run yet. Model mayhem for sure.
  18. Carvers Gap
    IF it verifies that strong, we may only need that slp track to move just a smidge. That is hurricane level stuff on that run. I need to go look at the winds.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I would take that run verbatim in terms of low placement and run with it! LOL.
  20. Carvers Gap
    That was a MONSTER run to our east and not bad for E TN. It snowed from Destin to Maine with that run. It was more impressive than yesterday IMHO.
  21. Carvers Gap
    968mb slp over Hatteras at 177 and stalled out. Wow. edit: 966 just after that at 180.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is very similar to the wild 12z run from yesterday. Big storm.
  23. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is a nice run out to 156.
  24. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is rolling. At hour 90, more spacing between the front-running vortex and the main system. That front running vortex normally sheers out. Extra spacing may allow that main system to climb in latitude. Not going to fill up the thread with an off-run PBP, but interesting.
  25. Carvers Gap
    All I know is I couldn't feel my fingers after running this morning. It is 37 out there right now and it feels like a heat wave!
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