Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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12z Euro looks similar for sure. Snow showers and light snow possible for E TN. Both the 12z GEFS and GEPS now show a Pacific driven pattern. Prior the GEPS didn't have the deep trough that the GEFS does after 300. Does now. Good trends. Cold pattern if true. Vols are on at 3:00PM. GBO.
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12z GFS....Verbatim, that is a very active winter pattern and is a stellar run. I am currently just looking for opportunities vs narrowing in on details. Remember, I just look for windows where it can snow. We have had exactly zero up to this point this winter. By my count there are four opportunities for wintery weather on that run alone. Now, obviously the details will change, but my takeaway from that run is we are going to be on along the battle lines between cold and warm. If you want to see a big snow(or no snow if you are south of the demarcation line), that is the pattern. Oddly, and I have toyed with this for several weeks. I have often wondered if the NAO was weaker if the western trough would have been allowed eastward. That run was a good test of that theory.
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I think Sullivan Co is up to 10-12" of total snow for that run. Biggest run of the season from the Plateau eastward.
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12z GFS is truly a good winter run. Cold, chances for snow, and a good overall mean trough in the East. Nice little storm after 300 which shows what can happen if the cold front taps the GOM. Roughly three trackable features. That is a wintry pattern.
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Yeah, the NAM is like the old DGEX. Just gets way too amped outside of 48 hours at times. The 12z RGEM and NAM looked fairly putrid. The 12z GFS was fairly close to something good on the 3rd. It actually turned the corner. That is likely 6-10"(or more) for the mountains if that track were to verify. CMC was more backend snow showers and flurries.
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Probably is a wee bit too cold, but the CFSv2 is about as cold as I have ever seen it here - nearly off the charts. I had to do a double take as I thought I clicked on some other parameter than temps. Some of its 5-day means are 25-30F BN in the western forum areas. MJO looks good this AM. Ensembles tend to shallow out troughs a bit more this AM, but let's see if those MJO plots begin to push things a bit. Overall, a good look and cold start to Jan beginning Jan 3.
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Overnight partial update: Operationals still flirting with a system early next week... In the LR, 12z GEFS/GEPS both showing a strong EPO signal that could deliver some quite cold air into the Lower 48 from the Rockies to the Apps. Slight westward trend of the trough, but overall placement the same. We needed that westward trend or that pattern would have simply not reloaded. Don't want to see a continue trend west. Still not convinced we are seeing the new pattern...may still be seeing a transition. We will see what the EPS has in store overnight. There is a sweet spot there that the pattern will have to hit regarding the western ridge alignment. As for '84, not seeing those types of temps on modeling yet, but seeing ensembles produce significant BN departures is noteworthy. However, weak La Nina winters(as has been noted been many on this forum....nearly every day for weeks) tend to have these really extreme temperature flips. There are definitely duds in the mix. But many of the great winters IMBY came with this sort of weak La Nina pattern. Not saying that happens, but worth noting. Jan 85 was historically cold...and then it was spring. Big swings. Still need to reel this in, but the possibilities for decent cold are there. That pattern after 300 on the GEFS has the mechanism to deliver severe cold(2020s style). Long way off in model land, though. Biggest thing analogs do is help recognize a pattern. Great discussion though!
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
UT played about as well as can be expected. Our lottery pick point guard and top post player were out. The two guys who we never need to miss....both missed the same game. Tough loss. -
BTW, I was wondering what the wx was like under that big red ball in the Aleutians. That Kodiak high temp tells the story.
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This for you. Joe D'Aleo was commenting the wild swings in Alaska this December. BTW Antartica recorded -144F last winter. Boggles my mind. Anyway... This past Sunday, a record 65 degrees reported at the Kodiak airport was 20 degrees higher than the previous high temperature record of 45 degrees set on Dec. 26, 1984, the National Weather Service reported.
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For kicks and giggles....The ever cold CFSv2 extended is working to top itself with each run. The control is even more extreme with some 5 day time frames at twenty-five below normal. The mean is warmer, but still very cold w/ some huge departures.
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That is what I was thinking as well - meaning Canadian cold would work.
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Agree. We just don’t want the 12z EPS solution which flushed cold out of NA. The GEPS and GEFS looked really good. Get some storms undercutting that ridge, and we would be in business. Not sure I buy the EPS solution at this point. It looked similar, just a different variation.
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The 18z GEFS is a very cold winter pattern with a strong EPO/AK ridge. No idea if that continues during future runs. That looked like a very stable pattern. That is a total reversal of the current pattern. Not sharing a foxhole with the GEFS, but fun to look at.
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AK block at 288 set to empty the Arctic into the Lower 48 if it doesn't form a shallow trough.
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270+ Major winter storm under way for far western areas of the forum ice/snow.
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Awesome to see you posting! Yeah, tempted to stay up and watch that run!
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1060 hp in southern Alberta at 210 on the 18z GFS.
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Another nice look on the 18z GFS at 102.
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On the plus side, the CFSv2 has now flipped Jan to seasonal to BN here. As @Mr. Kevincorrectly noted, where the CFS goes towards right before January is often telling. The CFSv2 extended(comes out 4x per day) is pretty cold for most of its run at 12z...but keeping' it real, it is cold pretty much all of the time. It is the ying to the EPS yang.
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Nice PNA/EPO signature on the 12z EPS. It does create a chinook which scours a lot of the cold out of NA. Always something! As each trough pushes through the ridge reforms slightly west of its previous position. It may well be that a formidable EPO eventually builds and cold empties back into NA in a pinwheel fashion as cold wraps around the vortex over Greenland. Looks like a good pattern but a period of moderation over central and western Canada. Would be our luck to finally get a good pattern and the source region be less than optimal. The GEFS and GEPS look much better in terms of source regions. I suspect there would be enough cold given it is January and AN air masses to our north are still often BN if they can get here in decent shape.
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The 12z GEFS has similar look(to the GEPS) but further west. Both looks will work in the LR. Those looks, if we can get split flow, are excellent for winter in the east. Big red ball is in the right place for now. LOL. @Blue Moon, keep us updated on the severe!
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If you all want to see a MONSTER EPO/PNA, take a look at the GEPS at 12z in the LR. Wow. That'll do it.
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12z GFS and CMC and their ensembles continue to look good. Looks like several opportunities are on the table. The ensembles are quite cold.
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Was just digging back through the December thread, pretty amazing to see modeling pinpoint this upcoming timeframe for both cold and rain. @Holston_River_Rambler, the EPS may have hit this rain at max range. If the cold arrives on Sunday/Monday, it was hit at max range as well by almost all globals. The CMC may have again shown its worth. Again, modeling has done really well this winter with the overall longwave pattern at 500. It wasn't so great during November, but has been decent since then. The Euro Weeklies may have had the Jan 3 shot around December 13th. I can remember when modeling had almost no skill past 7-8 days. Now, it is still pretty sketch after those timeframes, but decent work by those 0s and 1s.
